The WNBA Playoff Race: Analysis and Key Players
With the trade deadline closing and only five weeks remaining in the regular season, the race to the WNBA playoffs is on. Several teams have made moves to reinforce their rosters for the postseason. An example is the transfer of DiJonai Carrington to the Minnesota Lynx, who are looking to return to the WNBA Finals. The Washington Mystics have initiated a restructuring, trading Brittney Sykes to the Seattle Storm in exchange for Alysha Clark and sending Aaliyah Edwards to the Connecticut Sun. Only three games separate the current second seed (New York Liberty) and the fifth (Indiana Fever), with the Atlanta Dream and Phoenix Mercury located between them. The most interesting competition for the playoffs is developing in the lower half of the standings, between the Storm, Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries, Los Angeles Sparks, and Mystics. Only two games separate the current seeds from 5 to 8, and only one game separates the seeds from 8 to 10. The three teams seemingly out of the playoffs are the Chicago Sky, Dallas Wings, and Sun. With each game being more crucial than ever and the margins for error shrinking, we analyze who could be the decisive players for teams with playoff aspirations, and who are key to the future success of the teams that will end their year at the end of the regular season.Analysis of the Teams and Their Key Players
Atlanta Dream: Allisha Gray, guard.Gray has been the leading candidate for Most Improved Player throughout the season, and her continued growth is crucial to the Dream’s playoff hopes. Gray is in the top three in almost every major statistical category for Atlanta, leading the team in points (18.7 per game), third in rebounds (5.5), third in assists (3.9), and third in steals (1.2). Gray has been an All-Star for three consecutive years and won an Olympic gold medal with the US 3×3 team in 2021. The Dream have lost in the first round of the playoffs in the last two seasons, and now they need her to keep performing and achieve a better performance.Chicago Sky: Ariel Atkins, Guard.
The Sky caused a sensation when they acquired Atkins during the offseason, a decision that was made with a focus on “winning now.” The WNBA champion, Olympic gold medalist, and two-time All-Star brings a veteran and winning presence that is hard to find on this young team. After missing six games due to a leg injury, Atkins returned last Sunday, which should bring some relief to the Sky. Without her, they lost by 37 to Atlanta, 23 to the Lynx, and 38 to the Mystics. Atkins remains crucial for the Sky to end a long losing streak and find some success in the final weeks of the regular season.Connecticut Sun: Leila Lacan, guard.
The Sun are focused on building for the future, and Lacan is an important part of that. Connecticut’s first-round pick in 2024 joined the team late this season due to commitments with the French national team and didn’t debut in the WNBA until July 6. But the 21-year-old has been worth the wait, providing a spark on the defensive side and the ability to advance and create for others. Lacan became the first player since 2009 to record a 10-point, six-steal game in Connecticut’s loss to the Mercury.Dallas Wings: Maddy Siegrist, forward.
Dallas is another team that is less focused on winning this season and more on determining which players fit into their future, as it looks to build around No. 1 pick, Paige Bueckers. Amid a season plagued by injuries, the Wings were without Siegrist, their 2023 lottery pick who was in the Most Improved Player conversation last year, for most of the summer after suffering a tibial plateau fracture in mid-June. Siegrist made her expected return on Tuesday, recording 13 points in 15 minutes in Dallas’ loss to the Liberty. Siegrist’s versatility, motor, and energy should help the Wings in the final third of the regular season. After missing so much time this year, in addition to 13 games last year with a broken finger, any momentum the Villanova legend can build could help her heading into next summer.Golden State Valkyries: Tiffany Hayes, guard.
Since Kayla Thornton’s season ended with a left leg injury, the Valkyries have desperately needed someone to step up and replace her team-leading 14.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG. They will maintain that no one person can make up for Thornton’s production, but Hayes will now carry a heavier load. With a very young team and many international players, Hayes’ voice in the locker room will also be of great help. She is the reigning Player of the Year number six and has more playoff experience than almost all of her teammates. If Golden State wants to reach the postseason in its first year, Hayes will have to lead them.Indiana Fever: Caitlin Clark, guard.
It’s no secret that Clark is the centerpiece of the Fever’s identity. And while they’ve managed to win during her absence, she remains key to their playoff aspirations. Yes, even before she suffered the groin injury that has sidelined her since July 15, and the right quadriceps injury before that, her statistics dipped a bit compared to her rookie season. But Indiana averages 87.8 points when Clark is on the court, according to StatMuse, and 83.4 points without her. Players like Kelsey Mitchell and Aari McDonald have increased their scoring in recent weeks, so now, if you add a healthy Clark and her 16.5 PPG, the Fever’s high-powered offense should be even stronger.Las Vegas Aces: Jewell Loyd, guard.A’ja Wilson has done everything she can to help the Aces. She leads the team in minutes, points, rebounds, and steals, and is third in assists. However, Las Vegas is struggling for a playoff spot at the bottom of the standings. If the Aces want to find some postseason success, Wilson needs help, and much of that must come from Loyd. On paper, it seemed that Loyd would fit perfectly alongside Wilson and in the Aces’ system after her arrival via the successful trade that also saw Kelsey Plum go to Los Angeles. But so far, Loyd is averaging 11.3 points, the fewest since her rookie season, and a career-low 1.8 assists per game. The Aces need more from her.Los Angeles Sparks: Cameron Brink, forward.The Sparks were on a five-game winning streak, having found their offensive form and looking like one of the best units in the league since the All-Star break, when Brink returned from a 13-month ACL recovery. And just four games later, she could be key in helping them become a formidable team to face in the playoffs. Let’s take the Sparks’ victory over Indiana on Tuesday: Brink didn’t score, but finished with a +/- of +12 off the bench, largely due to her defensive presence in the paint, with her five blocks, in just 16 minutes!, tying a career high. Her offense will come, and the Sparks have plenty of scorers in the meantime, but if she can propel them to even a mid-table team defensively, this will be a dangerous group in the fall.Minnesota Lynx: DiJonai Carrington, guard.Carrington is the obvious choice after the Lynx traded her before the August 8 deadline. The move bolsters Minnesota’s wing depth, especially important after the season-ending foot injury to Karlie Samuelson, and provides more defensive versatility for a team that already boasts the league’s best defensive rating. Carrington’s impact was on full display in her Lynx debut on Tuesday, where she tallied 13 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals in 18 minutes off the bench in the four-point win over Seattle without Napheesa Collier. The Lynx also looked to add Carrington in the hopes that her experience in deep playoff runs with Connecticut will help. Time will tell if the 5-foot-11-inch guard is the missing piece for a team that was one play away from lifting the trophy last October.New York Liberty: Emma Meesseman, center.Meesseman brings tremendous offensive versatility in the low post for New York, capable of scoring off the dribble, shooting from distance, or operating from the high post with high efficiency and basketball intelligence. Defensively, she is another true rim protector who can switch from one to four. She can use her length to disrupt passing lanes and block shots. In just two games, she is fourth on the team in scoring, averaging 12 points on 45% shooting and 2.5 rebounds. Although Meesseman hadn’t played in the WNBA since 2022, she has been dominating basketball overseas, including winning six EuroLeague championships and three EuroLeague MVP awards. Her arrival in New York comes at the perfect time, as the Liberty navigate a plethora of injuries, including Breanna Stewart’s knee. But when they are in full form, Meesseman gives them incredible depth in the frontcourt and will make them relentless.Phoenix Mercury: Kahleah Copper, guard.
The Mercury had one of the most eye-catching offseasons, bringing in Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, but the most important player for their playoff hopes is the one who has been in Phoenix the longest. Copper has been the main option for their teams in recent years, and took his game to the next level in 2024. But now, he is playing alongside Thomas, who has made his way into the MVP conversation this year, and has had to figure out how to adjust his game alongside his new teammates. After missing the first month of the season due to knee and hamstring injuries, he is finding a rhythm, averaging 17.4 points in his last five games. He scored 22 points against the Fever, the same game in which Thomas scored a career-high 32. It was the perfect example of how dangerous this team can be with both.Seattle Storm: Dominique Malonga, center.The Storm made one of the most important moves before the trade deadline, adding All-Star guard Brittney Sykes from Washington to give them four 2025 All-Stars, more than any other team. Although Sykes should help Seattle on both ends with her defensive versatility and ability to get to the free throw line, it is Malonga, the No. 2 pick in April, who gives the Storm the biggest advantage for a playoff run. The youngest player in the WNBA, Malonga, won’t turn 20 until November. She has grown dramatically over the course of her rookie season after entering and exiting Noelle Quinn’s rotation in the first half of the summer. Since the All-Star break, Malonga has averaged 9.1 PPG and 6.6 RPG in 18 minutes, sometimes finishing the night ahead of former All-Star center Ezi Magbegor. Malonga’s size and athleticism give Seattle a dimension that the team’s many All-Stars don’t offer.Washington Mystics: Kiki Iriafen, forward, and Sonia Citron, guard.
The most important reason why Washington is a surprise this season, and in the playoff picture, is because of this rookie duo. Both players made the All-Star team, and for a good part of the early season they were in contention for Rookie of the Year. Citron and Iriafen remain second and third in the league in rookie scoring, respectively, but the team’s offense has slowed down significantly in recent weeks. And now, with Brittney Sykes out, the Mystics should press the full reset button and hand over the keys to their rookies. The schedule is kind to Washington during the last month of the season, so both players must step up to help get into the top eight and secure a playoff spot.
