European Football Reinvented: Analysis of Teams Seeking Redemption
Football, in its constant evolution, barely gives respite. Despite the recent conclusion of the Women’s Euro and the Club World Cup, the pre-season is coming to an end. The qualifying rounds for the Champions League are already underway, and the 2025-26 season of the British Premier League will begin in two weeks, closely followed by the rest of the major European leagues. The transfer window, which closes a few weeks after the start of the season, makes it difficult to evaluate the final squads. However, a large part of the movements this summer have already been finalized, allowing us to analyze the teams’ strategies to overcome their deficiencies from the previous year.- Premier League stars who need a transfer
- Summer transfer analysis: Ratings of the big signings
- How players use data to negotiate their contracts
Below, we analyze ten teams from the five major European leagues that stood out in the 2023-24 season but showed underperformance in 2024-25. The term “underperformance” is relative; for example, Real Madrid finished second in LaLiga and reached the Champions League quarter-finals, but did not meet the expectations generated the previous year. We will examine what factors affected their performance and how they have addressed their needs.
Manchester City
2023-24: 2.39 points per game (first), +62 goal difference 2024-25: 1.87 points per game (third), +28 goal difference The biggest statistical weakness last season was transition defense and defense in general. City’s effectiveness decreased, and its ability to finish plays, which exceeded expectations by 14.1 goals in 2023-24, was reduced to +2.8 in 2024-25. The decrease in set-piece goals also affected their performance. These factors, combined with the defensive decline, increased the cost of each mistake. The team’s defense can be analyzed based on the shots allowed and the quality of those shots. City, by controlling possession, often concedes counter-attack opportunities, but minimizes them by allowing few shots. However, last season, the team went from allowing a low number of shots and a superior quality to allowing more shots with a disastrous quality. The absence of Rodri, the defensive midfielder and Ballon d’Or winner, for a large part of the season, was a key problem. City responded with signings in January. These reinforcements will have to deliver results, as the defense has not been significantly strengthened this summer. Key departures: Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli), Kyle Walker (Burnley) Key arrivals: Tijjani Reijnders (AC Milan), Rayan Aït-Nouri (Wolves), Rayan Cherki (Lyon), James Trafford (Burnley), Sverre Nypan (Rosenborg) Reijnders and Cherki could form a creative midfield, and Aït-Nouri is one of the best offensive full-backs in the Premier League. However, City hopes to improve their defense with the return of Rodri and by dominating possession. This approach seems risky, and considering their performance in the Club World Cup against Al Hilal, it is not clear if it is the right strategy. Despite this, the attack should be spectacular again.Real Madrid
2023-24: 2.50 points per game (first), +61 goal difference2024-25: 2.21 points per game (second), +40 goal difference
Leverkusen
2023-24: 2.65 points per game (first), +65 goal difference2024-25: 2.03 points per game (second), +29 goal difference
The biggest statistical weakness last season was the inevitable hangover. After a perfect 2023-24 season, performance declined. Despite keeping a similar team, Leverkusen scored fewer goals and conceded more, their goal difference was halved, and their luck in tight matches diminished. The magic in close games always fades.
A notable change was the reduction in xG generation per game, which hindered offensive play. Opponents improved at disrupting their game and congesting the defensive area. It was time to renew the talent, and they did, for better or for worse. Key departures: Florian Wirtz (Liverpool), Jeremie Frimpong (Liverpool), Jonathan Tah (Bayern Munich), Granit Xhaka Key arrivals: Malik Tillman (PSV Eindhoven), Mark Flekken (Brentford), Jarell Quansah (Liverpool), Ibrahim Maza (Hertha Berlin), Farid Alfa-Ruprecht (Manchester City) Comparing the players who left with those who arrived is probably not favorable. Wirtz and Frimpong scored 35 goals and 35 assists in the last two seasons, Tah is a starter in the national team, and Xhaka provided leadership and hard work. Although Tillman is an exciting attacker, Quansah is a promising defender, and Flekken is a solid goalkeeper, although not much younger than Lukas Hradecky. Maza and Alfa-Ruprecht are long-term projects. This is still a talented team, but a new era has clearly begun in Leverkusen.Tottenham Hotspur
2023-24: 1.74 points per game (fifth), +13 goal difference 2024-25: 1.00 points per game (17th), -1 goal difference
There is a correlation between performance in close matches and those that are not so close. If a team performs well in one, they will probably perform well in the other as well. Tottenham Hotspur performed better in matches that were not so close last season, but in matches decided by one goal or less, the Spurs had the worst record of the five major leagues. They played 21 such matches and won one.
That is an outlier in that type of statistics. With an average performance in those games, the Spurs would have added about 20 more points. They will almost certainly improve in this regard, and Frank will get a lot of credit for it. He will receive even more credit if he manages to improve the Spurs’ defense. They were deficient in that regard during Ange Postecoglou’s two seasons, even worse than Frank’s Brentford, which had a lower budget. It was especially poor last year: Spurs ranked 16th in the Premier League for goals conceded and 17th for xG conceded. It wasn’t bad luck. Key output: Son Heung-min Key arrivals: Mohammed Kudus (West Ham), Mathys Tel (Bayern Munich), Kevin Danso (Lens), Luka Vuskovic (Hajduk Split), Kota Takai (Kawasaki Frontale) The fees associated with the acquisitions of Kudus and Tel are not the best, especially Kudus, and the Spurs are unlikely to be finished, thanks to their failed attempt to sign Morgan Gibbs-White from Nottingham Forest, combined with the recent departure of Son and a possible serious injury to James Maddison. However, the signing of three central defenders indicates that they understood the main task.Manchester United
2023-24: 1.58 points per game (8th), -1 goal difference 2024-25: 1.11 points per game (15th), -10 goal difference
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Players like Bruno Fernandes (eight goals from shots with a value of 10.0 xG) will probably regress towards the mean this season, but this was at best a mediocre team with no strengths. United could need one or two more attackers, at least one midfielder, and at least one center-back. Perhaps even more than that. Key output: Marcus Rashford (on loan from Barcelona) Key arrivals: Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford), Matheus Cunha (Wolves) In theory, adding the number 4 and 8 goalscorers from the Premier League is a direct way to address scoring problems, right? Mbeumo and Cunha combined for 35 goals and 13 assists last season, but both exceeded their xG totals by unsustainable amounts: Mbeumo’s 20 goals came from shots worth 12.3 xG, Cunha’s 15 from shots worth 8.7. Spending a combined 149.2 million euros on these two was a significant overpayment, and the expenses could prevent them from addressing their other obvious problems. It’s almost certain United isn’t done, but they had a lot to address and, at most, have only ticked half the boxes on the list.
