Hugo Ekitike: Superstar or Disappointment? The Enigma of Liverpool’s New Signing
The future of Hugo Ekitike is a mystery that divides football fans and experts. Are we looking at a future star or another disappointment in the transfer market? His arrival at Liverpool generates expectations and doubts in equal measure. The young French forward, 23 years old, is a case study in himself, a player who defies conventions and football prejudices.
Ekitike is a mix of perplexing qualities: a physical powerhouse with evident weaknesses, a statistics favorite with warning signs, a machine for producing without a consolidated history of goals and assists, and a promising young player with little experience. He has proven his worth in an important league, although not in the most suitable one for his development.
Ekitike is everything that the foolish clubs do wrong in transfers and everything that the smart clubs do right.
Why might it fail?
In football, the search for “unicorn” players is constant. Ekitike, with his 1.90 meters in height, the skill of a Rafael Leão and the speed of Anthony Gordon, embodies that figure. Scouts are attracted by his potential, his skill with the ball and his speed. However, the main challenge lies in his lack of experience and the need for constant development.Ekitike, although young, is a year away from his best footballing moment. The time to acquire new skills or strength is limited. His new team will need him to contribute immediately, and although he had an outstanding season with Eintracht Frankfurt, it was his first real season at a professional level.
In the 2024-25 season, Ekitike scored 14 non-penalty goals and added eight assists in 2,563 league minutes, which equates to 0.77 goals+assists per 90 minutes. Among players who played at least 2,000 minutes in the Premier League last season, only his future teammate Mohamed Salah and Alexander Isak of Newcastle were more productive. However, standout seasons can be fleeting, and the lack of a consistent track record generates uncertainty.
Another factor to consider is the environment in which Ekitike scored those 22 goals. The Bundesliga is a different league than the Premier League or the other major European leagues. The greater amount of space and less physical contact in Germany can influence the performance of attackers when they move to the Premier League.
Furthermore, Eintracht Frankfurt’s experience in the transfer market also raises questions. In the last five years, the club has sold several forwards who failed to consistently stand out in their new teams. Will betting on Ekitike be the exception to the rule?
Why might it succeed?
Data analysis, especially that of expected goals (xG), reveals significant potential in Ekitike. xG predicts the future performance of players with greater precision than other metrics. Ekitike, with an underperformance of his xG in the previous season, could experience a considerable increase in his goalscoring production.
His ability to create and score goals, combined with his versatility, make him a valuable asset. Ekitike is a player who presses in attack, is a good passer, confident in possession and a world-class dribbler in his position. Michael Imburgio’s DAVIES model highlights his value, placing him above the average of players in his position.
Liverpool’s investment, estimated at around 80 million euros, reflects the balance between risk and potential. Ekitike could become a world-class player, or a disappointment. Time will tell.
