MLB: Trades Analysis – Duran to Phillies, Helsley to Mets and More

MLB’s Season of Changes: Analysis and Reactions

The MLB offseason is in full swing! From the first moves to the intense last-minute activity on the deadline day, we present a detailed analysis of each trade. Keep a close eye on the evaluations and ratings of the Alofoke Deportes experts, who analyze every move. Stay informed, as this coverage will be constantly updated with the latest analyses.

Puppies Bolster Pitching with Soroka

Chicago Cubs acquire Michael Soroka from the Nationals.

Puppies get:

• RHP Michael Soroka

Nationals get:

• OF Christian Franklin
• IF Ronny Cruz

Cubs Rating: C

The Chicago Cubs are looking for pitching help, with a starter as a priority, but Soroka can be useful in any role. The Washington Nationals used him exclusively as a starter, with a 3-8 record and a 4.87 ERA in 16 starts. However, his peripheral statistics are solid, including an 87-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio (despite leading the league with 14 hit batsmen), as well as a .224 batting average allowed, which aligns with his expected .218 average. Soroka has achieved these results despite a limited arsenal, which is primarily based on a four-seam fastball against which hitters have batted .537, and a “slurve”, which is essentially a new pitch for him this year. He throws it 35% of the time and hitters have only batted .124 against it. He mixes a changeup against left-handers and a two-seam fastball, but the combination of four-seam fastball and “slurve” accounts for approximately 80% of his pitches. It’s back-end-of-the-rotation starter material and he has managed to complete six innings on only four occasions. However, by placing him in front of the Cubs’ defense, his effectiveness could decrease, making him an improvement over Ben Brown and possibly Colin Rea. The Cubs could look for another starter, in which case Soroka would be a valuable depth piece for the bullpen. When pitching as a reliever for the White Sox last year, his moderate-velocity fastball worked well and struck out 60 batters in just 36 innings, so he could be a more effective weapon in relief.

Nationals Rating: B

Most prospects in these trades won’t pan out, but the Nationals at least got a couple of semi-interesting position players for a back-of-the-rotation starter. Franklin is in Triple-A, batting .265/.393/.427. He’s already 25, so significant growth here is unlikely and there was no place for him on the Cubs, but the former University of Arkansas outfielder has some on-base skills and projects as a fourth outfielder.

Cruz moved to Florida from the Dominican Republic when he was 16 years old and was selected by the Cubs in the third round of the 2024 draft. He is batting .270/.314/.431 in the rookie league. He will spend most of the season at 18 years old, and although he has shown power in batting practice from his 6-foot-2-inch frame, it has not yet translated into the game, with two home runs in 174 at-bats. His contact skills with the ball have been a bit better than expected (18% strikeout rate), so at least he has become someone to watch.

Mets Add Reliever with Cardinals’ Helsley

The Mets acquire Ryan Helsley, Cardinals reliever.

Mets get:

• RHP Ryan Helsley

Cardinals get:

• IF Jesus Baez
• RHP Nate Dohm
• RHP Frank Elissalt

Mets Grade: B

Aside from closer Edwin Díaz, the Mets’ bullpen has struggled since the beginning of June, with an ERA of 4.81, so it’s not surprising that David Stearns, president of baseball operations, has been aggressive in adding much-needed depth, acquiring Tyler Rogers and, subsequently, two-time All-Star Helsley (after also adding left-hander Gregory Soto on Friday). The two right-handers are opposites in terms of their repertoire, with Rogers, who throws sidearm, being the softest pitcher in the majors with his 83 mph sinker, while Helsley lights up the radar with a fastball that averages 99.3 mph. Despite that velocity, that pitch has been hit hard in 2025, as Helsley has allowed an average of .406 against, the reason why he hasn’t been as dominant as in his All-Star seasons of 2022 and 2024. But his slider has always been his primary pitch, and it remains a dominant offering, as hitters have batted .092 against it with a whiff rate of 45%. After a difficult period in early June, when he squandered three consecutive save opportunities, he has looked better lately, allowing only one run in his last 11 appearances. If he’s your third right out of the bullpen, that’s probably a good sign. Although the high-leverage part of the bullpen is predominantly right-handed with Díaz, Rogers, Helsley, Reed Garrett, and Ryne Stanek, the Mets have two lefties in Soto and Brooks Raley. The important thing to highlight is that they will need all these players, as manager Carlos Mendoza has had one of the fastest substitutions in the majors with his starters (the Mets are fifth in rotation effectiveness, but 25th in innings pitched). That was part of the problem in recent months, as Mendoza demanded too much from his key players. With these additions, they have gone from a bullpen with a great closer and questionable depth to one of the best in baseball. We have seen teams rely on their bullpens to succeed in October and Stearns has now put the Mets in a position to do so.

Cardinals’ Grade: A-

The St. Louis Cardinals were 8-15 in July entering Wednesday, undoubtedly shifting their thinking from championship contenders to aspirants, which led to this trade. Baez is the top prospect, number 5 on Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 prospects list in a Mets system that is deep. The 20-year-old has played all over the infield, is likely headed to third base long-term, and is hitting .244/.334/.406 in advanced Class A. Has plus bat speed and some high-end exit velocity readings, and despite being young for his league, he has kept his strikeout rate under control at just 16%. Although the numbers don’t necessarily stand out, his .740 OPS is well above the South Atlantic League average of .672. He’s not a sure thing, but the potential here makes Báez a good return for a reliever with an expiring contract. Dohm is the better of the two pitching prospects, a third-round pick last year out of Mississippi State who has a 2.87 ERA as a starter across two levels of Class A. He has been handled with care after his junior season in college was cut short due to a forearm strain, but he is a fastball-heavy pitcher with a good slider. He reached 99 mph as a reliever for the Bulldogs, so that could be his ultimate destination.

In the end, I think the Cardinals read the trade market correctly: the price of relievers has seemed quite high so far, and although they are only five games away from a wild card spot, they are going in the wrong direction, with no real signs that they are going to get out of that.

Phillies Bolster Bullpen with Duran

The Phillies acquire Jhoan Duran, Twins closer.

Phillies get:

• RHP Jhoan Duran

Twins get:

• C Eduardo Tait
• RHP Mick Abel

Phillies’ Grade: A

Is this a David Dombrowski classic, or what? The Philadelphia Phillies, despite having one of the best records in baseball, have a leader in saves in Jordan Romano, who only has eight with an ERA of 6.81. They have mixed and matched in high-pressure situations, not just save situations, with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering emerging as the most reliable players. Take those two, put them behind Duran, and how beautiful does that postseason picture look?

Duran could end up being the most valuable reliever traded at the deadline, surpassing the New York Mets’ deal earlier in the day for Tyler Rogers. Perhaps noticing this, the Mets responded almost immediately by also acquiring Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals. Even if the title of “most valuable traded reliever” is up for debate, Duran will definitely be in the mix. Anyway, it’s possibly a better option for Philadelphia than Helsley, because Duran makes about half the money in 2025 and the Phillies are paying the maximum luxury tax penalty (110% on the payroll added from here) allowed by the collective bargaining agreement. Duran also has three more years of team control (arbitration seasons) after 2025. The Phillies have a new closer and it’s not just for the final stretch of this season. When negotiating with Tait and Abel, the president of baseball operations, Dombrowski, negotiated with two of their top 10 prospects (Nos. 4 and 5), but did not negotiate with Andrew Painter, whose name, according to reports, kept appearing on the Minnesota Twins’ wish list. But negotiating with prospects is what Dombrowski does, along with winning pennants. For the Phillies, it’s all about August, September, and beyond. Their chances of navigating those crucial months have just increased considerably.

Twins’ Rating: B

Abel and Tait are excellent prospects who make the Twins’ system deeper and raise its ceiling. Abel, 23, has already played at the Major League level and should help the Twins’ rotation from the start. He is a classic long-range right-hander (6 feet 5 inches) and fast pitcher with good extension who, so far, has been hit quite hard on contact, but is just getting started. Tait has generally been the higher-ranked of the two and is one of the top 10 catching prospects. He’s also a month shy of turning 19, so unless the Twins put him on the fast track, he’ll be moving up the ranks for a while. His bat is exciting, with a good raw power base and an above-average hitting tool. Most analysts like his arm behind the plate, but suggest he needs to learn the catching details to stay at that crucial position. It’s a good return, and the value exchange is reasonable for both sides. But given the clamor that had to exist for a player with Duran’s stuff, closing experience, and service time level, it seems the Twins could have come away with a more decisive edge from a value standpoint. If they were going to trade Duran, they needed to be truly impressed and I’m not convinced this trade does that. Otherwise, I’d rather retain one of the best relievers in the game. Clearly, the Twins’ evaluators believe in Tait’s considerable potential and Abel’s ongoing progress. If they are right about that, this “B” can easily become an “A”.

Mets Bolster Bullpen with Rogers from the Giants

The Mets acquire Tyler Rogers, Giants reliever.

Mets get:

• RHP Tyler Rogers

Giants get:

• OF Drew Gilbert
• RHP Jose Butto
• RHP Blade Tidwell

Mets Grade: C+

First, let’s address the important part: of the nine identical twin combinations in MLB history, none of the others were traded on the same day. So, the Rogers twins, who look a lot alike as long as they’re not on the mound, are the first, after Taylor was transferred from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh earlier in the day. That aspect of the rating gets an A+.

The rest, I’m not so sure, although Tyler Rogers is certainly a significant upgrade for the Mets’ bullpen, giving them a really good trio at the back end of the bullpen with closer Edwin Díaz and Reed Garrett. Deepening the high-pressure contingent was a mandatory task for David Stearns at this deadline, so that box has been checked, although it would be good to have more. The three of that trio are right-handed, but they have very different arm slots and pitch combinations, so they should complement each other well. In terms of performance, Rogers has been in form this season with an ERA of 1.80 in 50 innings, with 38 strikeouts and only four walks. On the other hand, Rogers is in a contract year and that’s a lot of controllable talent to give up for two months and a postseason from a short reliever. On the other hand, if Rogers ends up pitching in places in late October with a high championship leverage index, and is successful, Mets fans won’t sweat what the three young players heading to San Francisco end up doing. Meanwhile, Stearns has cleared space on the New York 40-man roster that he might need in the next 24 hours or so.

Giants’ Grade: A-

The Giants are not out of the race, and while it’s easy to see that trading a key reliever is an act of waving the white flag, the actuarial aspect of this deal was simply too good for Buster Posey to pass up. The Giants’ chances of making the playoffs were 12% in my system as of Tuesday night, and while that’s not impossible, Posey is doing the right thing by (presumably) playing on both sides of the fence. The Giants’ bullpen has been fantastic this season and is weakened by the loss of Rogers, but there’s still enough to get back into the playoff fight if San Francisco gets out of its prolonged slump. Gilbert, the Mets’ No. 8 prospect, is the headliner: an outfielder who defends well with an arm strong enough to play anywhere in the outfield. His offensive profile lacks a standout statistic, and as he will turn 25 in September, it is likely that the Giants will push him as quickly as possible. Tidwell has good stuff, with a slider as his strong point, but his command has faltered during this development. He’s been better this year, and made his first four appearances in the Major Leagues earlier this season. He’s been a starter, but his fastball-slider combination gives him the flexibility to fill a key role in the bullpen if that’s the direction the Giants want to take. Butto has the most major league experience of the three. He had been a swingman in the majors for the Mets until he worked exclusively in a low-leverage role this season. He will likely fill Rogers’ role in the San Francisco bullpen for now, but with multiple controllable seasons remaining on his service time clock, there’s a lot the Giants can do with him. Rogers was fantastic, but this loot was too good for Posey to refuse.

Yankees Add Depth in the Garden with Slater

The Yankees acquire Austin Slater, veteran outfielder.

Yankees get:

• OF Austin Slater

White Sox get:

• RHP Gage Ziehl

Yankees Grade: C+

The Yankees need help in the outfield. Slater is an outfielder, a veteran, with a set of easily identifiable, though limited, strengths. The offense is short at the moment with Aaron Judge on the injured list, and although Slater is a Lilliputian to Judge’s Gulliver, he plays a decent corner outfield and hits left-handed pitchers at an above-average rate, with a career OPS of .798 against lefties and .859 this season. The recent acquisition of Amed Rosario now looks like one that gives the also recent Amed Rosario a platoon partner at third base, so Slater should have a consistent role in the outfield until Judge returns, and perhaps afterwards as a platoon partner for Trent Grisham, with Judge playing some in center. Eventually, we’ll find out if losing Ziehl was too high a price to pay for adding a role player for two months and the postseason, but the Yankees are building a deep and balanced bench, as long as their key players are healthy when October arrives. At the very least, Slater’s addition reduces the chances of the Yankees asking Giancarlo Stanton to find out where his outfielder’s glove has been stored.

White Sox Grade: B

Ziehl hails from New York state, not far from the south shore of Lake Ontario, and if he emerges as a Major League pitcher, it appears he will do so just off the western shore of Lake Michigan now that he is Chris Getz’s latest prospect acquisition for Chicago. According to prospect gurus, Ziehl relies on decent velocity with a plus command and a sweeping-style slider as the foundation of his arsenal. A standout on the excellent Miami Hurricanes staff, Ziehl thrived in high-level competition as a college student. This year marks his first taste of professional game action, and the results have been regular. But the White Sox had very little use for Slater’s services except for this precise purpose: to add depth to Chicago’s farm system via a deadline deal. Given Slater’s lack of daily player utility, this seems like a solid return.

Reds Seek Offense with Hayes

The Reds acquire Ke’Bryan Hayes, third baseman.

Reds get:

• 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Pirates get:

• SS Sammy Stafura
• LHP Taylor Rogers

Reds’ Grade: C-

The Reds have been one of the 57 teams mentioned as interested in former Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suárez, who certainly would have been a more direct answer to the Reds’ acute need for a bat in the middle of the lineup. Hayes, whose slugging percentage below .300 evokes memories of the shortstops of the 1970s, is not.

However, he is a Platinum Glove-caliber defender at the hot corner and, as they say, a run saved is as good as a run scored. Cincinnati has been playing Noelvi Marte at third base recently, and while Marte is having his best season at the plate, his defensive marks have consistently been below average and he has the positional versatility to roam the field, just like most of the other corner players on the Reds.

Hayes doesn’t move around the field, but you don’t want him to. His value is like a defensive vacuum on the left side of the infield, one that will team up with Elly De La Cruz to form one of the most dynamic infield duos out there. The four years and $30 million remaining on Hayes’ extension that he signed at the beginning of his career should be team-friendly, but he has to hit more than he has in the last two campaigns amid ongoing back problems. For what it’s worth, Great American Ballpark is the only park besides PNC in which he has connected for more than two home runs in his career. If the bat doesn’t improve, the Reds have likely acquired a long-term contract underwater. Getting the Pirates to assume the remainder of Rogers’ expiring contract (the prorated remainder of his $12 million salary) likely sweetened the prospect return for Pittsburgh, while possibly freeing up the Reds’ payroll for the pursuit of that needed power bat.

Pirates’ Rating: B

It really seemed like the Pirates had developed their long-term third baseman when Hayes arrived and signed that extension, but the collapse of his bat ended that notion. Some teams could carry a corner player who defends well and hits poorly, but the Pirates need offense wherever they can get it. Moving on from their commitment to Hayes at least gives them the opportunity to find a more productive solution at his position. Stafura, who just lost the top 10 of Cincinnati in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent prospect rankings, could well be that guy. Or he could be the shortstop of the future for the Pirates, giving Pittsburgh the option of deploying elite prospect Konnor Griffin in center field. Stafura is an athletic infielder with plus speed and a better-than-average defensive profile, good enough to stick at short according to most prospect analysts. His offensive profile is a bit murky. He has exceptional plate discipline, but the question is whether he will make enough consistent contact in the majors to maintain the high OBPs he has posted as a professional. Either way, he deepens Pittsburgh’s prospect base.

Brewers and Rays Swap Catchers

The Brewers acquire Danny Jansen, catcher from the Rays.

Brewers get:

• C Danny Jansen (from the Rays)

Rays get:

• C Nick Fortes (of the Marlins)
• IF Jadher Areinamo (of the Brewers)

Marlins get:

• OF Matthew Etzel (of the Rays)

Brewers’ Rating: B

This might seem like a strange trade for the Brewers because they already have a solid catcher in William Contreras, but it seems they are trying to cover all their bases as they look for a possible deep run in October. A question a playoff-caliber team should consider: What if our starting catcher gets injured?

That’s pertinent to the Brewers because Contreras has played despite a fracture in the finger of his gloved hand that he suffered in early May. That perhaps explains his lower offensive production this year, and he has struggled since early June, batting only .229 with a home run in 44 games. Jansen provides an upgrade over Eric Haase at the Brewers’ backup catcher spot and could take some playing time away from Contreras, who has started 87 of the Brewers’ 105 games. Jansen is a low-average hitter who can occasionally hit a home run, batting .204/.314/.389 with 11 home runs. It’s not a huge move on paper, but it’s smart by one of the best front offices in the game.

Rays’ Grade: C+

The Rays had major problems over the last two seasons with their catcher production, which led them to sign Jansen in the offseason to a one-year deal worth $8 million with a mutual option for $12 million. The move from Jansen to Fortes makes sense from the Rays’ perspective: they were unlikely to pick up their portion of that 2026 option, so with Fortes under team control through 2028, they at least have a semi-solution for the foreseeable future. The only problem is that Fortes struggles at the plate, with a career line of .225/.277/.344, and it’s even worse if you look at his numbers since 2023. He’s a good defensive catcher, ranking high in Statcast’s framing runs saved despite his limited playing time, so at least he provides a replacement. Areinamo, who was traded for Jansen, was Milwaukee’s No. 24 prospect, according to MLB.com. He is a 19-year-old catcher who is batting .250/.339/.440 in the Florida Complex League. He was Detroit’s top international signing in 2023, coming from Venezuela, and ranked No. 14 on MLB.com’s prospect list for the Tigers and No. 17 on Baseball America. Jimenez is a switch-hitter, which is always fun to see in a catcher, but it’s also his second year in the FCL and his numbers have only shown a small improvement since