MLB: Did They Dominate the View? Yankees, Mariners, and More in the Free Agency Market

Baseball’s Domino Effect: Explosive Predictions Heading into the Trade Deadline

The crucial moment is approaching with the July 31st deadline for changes. Although this year may not have the same sparkle as others, the expectation is high. Let’s remember that last year’s most prominent name, Garrett Crochet, wasn’t traded until the postseason. Next week promises to be exciting, especially if the Arizona Diamondbacks decide to trade some of their key players who are approaching free agency. Based on Jeff Passan’s analysis, leading up to the deadline, we will analyze ten of the most important names that could change teams and how they could reshape the landscape. This exercise combines predictions, analysis, and entertainment. Last year, we only got one name right out of ten (Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers), although seven of the mentioned players were indeed traded. We begin with the most coveted player of this season, potentially heading to one of the biggest teams in the sport.

1. Yankees Strengthen: Eugenio Suárez to New York

Suárez is not only the hottest hitter with the possibility of being traded, with 36 home runs, but he also seems to be the best player available, unless a blockbuster trade for a pitcher like Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore materializes. We start the domino effect with Suárez, since several contenders could benefit from an upgrade at third base. With Jazz Chisholm Jr. playing second base, the Yankees have been using Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas at third base. The Seattle Mariners feature rookie Ben Williamson, a good defender who has hit a home run in 78 games and has a low on-base percentage. The Cubs’ third basemen, primarily rookie Matt Shaw, have a total of three home runs for the season and have the lowest OPS in the league. The Detroit Tigers are near the bottom of the league in offensive production at third, although Zach McKinstry has played there recently. The Milwaukee Brewers have rotated their third basemen at the start of the season, but Caleb Durbin has been playing well lately.

And if you’re looking for a surprise, consider the New York Mets, where Mark Vientos hasn’t replicated his great 2024 numbers and Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio have played more recently, although they haven’t hit much either. In fact, with Francisco Lindor struggling in the last month, the Mets could use another hitter.

So, who gets Suárez? The Tigers and Cubs are probably more focused on reinforcing their pitching. The Mariners have an excellent farm system with nine prospects in the top 100 and know Suárez well, after he played there in 2022 and 2023, but their offense leads the league in road OPS. Given their way of operating, they might not be willing to trade one of those top prospects for a mid-season player, and there’s a reasonable argument that the only way they’re going to catch the Houston Astros is for their rotation to start pitching better. That leaves the Yankees. General Manager Brian Cashman has said the Yankees “are going to go for it” at the trade deadline, suggesting they need a starting pitcher, bullpen help, and an infielder. The offense has improved in July after struggling in June, but Aaron Judge could still use some help. There’s an air of desperation with the Yankees as well, as the Toronto Blue Jays have surpassed them in the standings, and Suarez is clearly the perfect fit for their huge void at third base.

2. Mariners Seek Reinforcements: Josh Naylor to Seattle

Naylor is another of Arizona’s free agents and will cost much less than Suárez. If the Mariners are willing to take on the salaries, something unlikely, although if they offer a solid package of prospects, perhaps Arizona will contribute some money, they could acquire both Naylor and Suárez and build a lethal lineup with Suárez batting behind Cal Raleigh. In the absence of that fanciful thought, Naylor remains a sensible option as a solid contact hitter for a team that is among the bottom 10 in the league in strikeout rate. Luke Raley can move to right field or a bench role. The Mariners also need some bullpen depth and perhaps a right-handed hitter who is an upgrade over Dylan Moore or Donovan Solano, but Naylor would be a good addition, anyway.

3. Tigers Bolster Bullpen: David Bednar to Detroit

A key reason not to rule out Suárez to Detroit: history suggests that the teams that make the biggest deals at the trade deadline are not the ones chasing a playoff spot or simply trying to hold onto a wild card spot, but the teams that are already in first place. The Tigers know they are going to the postseason; they want to improve their team for October. A team that is not guaranteed a playoff spot is risking future value for a playoff run that might not exist. At a minimum, the Tigers will add to a bullpen that has been losing runs lately. Will Vest has remained solid, but Tommy Kahnle had been their other high-leverage reliever for the end of the game and recently allowed nine runs in three outings. Bednar, a two-time All-Star, has rediscovered his touch and control after a difficult 2024. He also has an additional season of team control. Other top-tier relievers who could be available include Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians, and Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax of the Minnesota Twins, but don’t look for a trade within the division.

4. The Puppies Seek Pitching: Seth Lugo to Chicago

Where do our first three moves leave the Cubs? They could still improve third base, although options are somewhat limited after Suárez. They would like to add a starting pitcher to a rotation that is just outside the top 10 in the league in ERA, but could be considered unstable beyond Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. Passan has the Cubs thinking big and going for Gore or Ryan, or for Mitch Keller of the Pirates, but we’ll play a little more conservatively.

Of the pitchers heading to free agency, Lugo is the best combination of “good” and “likely to be traded”, and the Cubs should be the team most willing to offer what it takes to get him. They have a championship-caliber lineup and defense, plus the bullpen has been solid. The strength of their farm system is on the position player side, which also matches the Royals’ needs. The only potential problem here: Neither Boyd nor Imanaga averages a strikeout per inning, and Lugo doesn’t either, so there could be some concern about how that rotation plays in the postseason, hence the idea of “thinking big” of Gore or Ryan, even if that means emptying the farm system.

5. The Mets Strengthen: Griffin Jax to New York

A guarantee of the trade deadline changes: The Mets will add to the bullpen, likely with more than one trade. Although the rotation still ranks fifth in ERA, that was built from a good start. More importantly, the only Mets starter who has completed six innings since June 7 has been David Peterson. As a result, manager Carlos Mendoza has pushed relievers Reed Garrett, Huascar Brazoban, Jose Butto, and Ryne Stanek to the limit. The bullpen had a 2.78 ERA through May, but that figure is over 5.00 since the beginning of June (ranking near the bottom of the league). The Twins have two high-profile relievers in Duran and Jax, both under team control until 2027, so they will be much more expensive than your usual short-term relievers if the Twins decide to trade one or both. Duran would be more difficult to trade, but would bring more in return, so we’ll say Jax is leaving. Don’t be fooled by his 4.09 ERA: He has 68 strikeouts and 12 walks in 44 innings with a 97 mph fastball. He’s an elite strikeout reliever, the kind you want on the mound in October.

6. The Dodgers Seek Offense: Steven Kwan to Los Angeles

Now, it’s time to have some fun. We know the Dodgers will do something, right? They almost always do, and it’s usually something significant. It could be a reliever, as Tanner Scott has struggled at times (and has also just been placed on the injured list due to left elbow inflammation) and Michael Kopech is injured. Not to mention their bullpen issues have been on display lately. It could be a starter, although they’re finally getting a little healthier there. So, how about an outfielder and a leadoff hitter? The reasoning here: Michael Conforto simply hasn’t performed. The Dodgers have given him 300 plate appearances and he’s batting below .200, plus he’s not a good left fielder. They could also use a leadoff hitter. They just moved Mookie Betts there in front of Shohei Ohtani, looking to get Betts going, but Betts simply hasn’t been an offensive force in 2025 and shouldn’t be hitting at the top of a lineup right now. Kwan would solve both problems and give them a good OBP guy in front of Ohtani, while also providing a big defensive upgrade.

Would Cleveland trade Kwan? Jeff and Kiley McDaniel ranked him No. 2 on ESPN’s updated list of the top 50 trade candidates, although, admittedly, they gave him only a 20% chance of being traded. He’s under team control through 2027 and is earning $4.1 million this season, with a big raise expected next year. The Guardians also need power and the Dodgers could offer a good prospect package, perhaps starting with catcher Dalton Rushing or a power-hitting outfielder like Zyhir Hope or Eduardo Quintero (top prospect Josue De Paula is likely off-limits).

7. The Red Sox Seek Reinforcements: Mitch Keller to Boston

Rumors about Keller continue to gain momentum. He’s signed through 2028, although this type of controllable pitcher is rarely (if ever?) traded at the deadline. But the Pirates could see this as their best opportunity to add some much-needed offense. As Passan wrote, the Blue Jays also make a lot of sense for Keller, with Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer heading to free agency after this season and then Kevin Gausman after 2026. But the Red Sox already have a surplus of outfielders in the majors and more hitting prospects in the minors, so they fit as a possible match with Pittsburgh. It could be an old-fashioned trade, with the Red Sox offering Jarren Duran, who matches Keller in being under team control until 2028. Or maybe the Pirates want multiple players: Kristian Campbell has been displaced from a position in Boston’s lineup, for example, and High-A infielder Franklin Arias would be another option. It’s true that the Red Sox are more likely to do something smaller, without wanting to break their current momentum. Manager Alex Cora has managed to keep everyone active, including starter Ceddanne Rafaela at second base a couple of times recently (although you don’t like taking his glove out of center field). Or don’t rule out adding a first baseman, like Naylor or Ryan O’Hearn. Abraham Toro has done well filling in for the injured Triston Casas, but his track record suggests he could regress at any moment.

8. Astros Seek a Left-Handed Hitter: Ryan O’Hearn to Houston

Speaking of O’Hearn, he is one of several players the Orioles will look to trade, and he could be the one to generate the most interest. The Astros still hold a six-game lead in the American League West, and they continue to play well despite a long list of injuries, but general manager Dana Brown has spoken of the need to add a left-handed hitter. O’Hearn could play in left field for the Astros, who have been using Cooper Hummel, Taylor Trammell, and the defensively limited Jose Altuve in the outfield lately. Even if the injured Yordan Alvarez returns, Altuve could move back to second base.

9. Padres Seek Power: Marcell Ozuna to San Diego

The Padres are one of the possible destinations for O’Hearn, as they seek to boost an offense that is in the bottom third of the National League in runs scored. Since O’Hearn is going to the Astros, the domino falls to Ozuna, who goes to the Padres to fill their designated hitter gap (they don’t have a starter there). His $16 million salary, or about $5.4 million in the last two months, could be a bit high for the Padres, but we know that general manager A.J. Preller will do something. He always does. Ozuna’s power numbers have declined this season, in addition to being terrible in the last two months, so there is some risk here, but he had an OBP above .400 in April and May.

10. The Blue Jays Seek to Strengthen Their Rotation: Merrill Kelly to Toronto

The Blue Jays keep winning, despite a rotation that is in the bottom third of the league in ERA (Eric Lauer has been their best starter lately). We’ve left them out of Lugo and Keller, partly because their farm system isn’t considered particularly strong, so the final domino on our list is Kelly, who is going to Toronto. Passan had good reasons to explain why the Diamondbacks would be more likely to trade Kelly than Gallen. Both are free agents, but Arizona could look to re-sign the older (and therefore less expensive) Kelly in the offseason, while keeping Gallen and giving him a qualifying offer to recoup a draft pick if he leaves as a free agent. Several contenders didn’t get one of the top 10 names in our exercise, but they could certainly be involved in the trade market. The Philadelphia Phillies, who just signed David Robertson for the bullpen, could still add another reliever and maybe an outfielder. The Texas Rangers haven’t disappeared and could be in that O’Hearn/Naylor mix for a first baseman (and also for the reliever market). The San Francisco Giants could add a starting pitcher: Zack Littell would be a great signing, with Charlie Morton and Zach Eflin, two more Orioles who could be traded. That’s all for our domino game. Now, it’s time for the action to begin.