India vs Australia: WTC keys. How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Clash with Major Implications in Cricket

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter, establishing itself as a series of great relevance. The context intensifies even further when considering the upcoming World Test Championship final in June, where the fate of both teams intertwines with the qualification. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, places them in third place in the championship table. If the New Zealanders repeat this feat against Pakistan, both Australia and India will face a considerable challenge to maintain their position at the top.

Classification Perspectives: A Detailed Analysis

We analyze how this series and India’s home clashes against England impact their qualification aspirations.

India: The Road to the Final

With four series played, India has accumulated 360 points, representing 75% of the points. They still have two series pending in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both series consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets the target that India must surpass to secure their place above New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s strong home record, they have a good opportunity to get the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four matches against Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia with a score of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points, considering that a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, is to win all four matches.

Australia: Solid Position, but with Challenges

Australia, with three series played, has a total of 296 points, equivalent to 82.22%. They need to surpass 420 points to ensure a percentage above 70%, assuming the series against South Africa is played. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. The series against South Africa, estimated to have three matches, will offer 40 points for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia maintains a favorable position, thanks to the points already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. Even a 1-0 victory against South Africa would take them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.