The WNBA Playoff Race Heats Up: In-Depth Analysis
With three weeks left in the WNBA regular season, excitement for the September 14 playoffs is at its peak. The battle for a playoff spot is defined in each game, with several teams competing to secure a place and gain home-court advantage. So far, the [Minnesota Lynx](https://www.espn.com/wnba/team/_/name/min/minnesota-lynx) are the only ones who have secured their place. On the other hand, the Connecticut Sun were eliminated, while the [Dallas Wings](https://www.espn.com/wnba/team/_/name/dal/dallas-wings) and [Chicago Sky](https://www.espn.com/wnba/team/_/name/chi/chicago-sky) were knocked out on Tuesday. The standings present a group of teams battling for home-court advantage or the last available spots. Only six games separate the [New York Liberty](https://www.espn.com/wnba/team/_/name/ny/new-york-liberty), in second place, from the [Washington Mystics](https://www.espn.com/wnba/team/_/name/wsh/washington-mystics), in tenth place. Below, we analyze the situation of each team in the playoff race, evaluating their chances and current status.Favorites
Minnesota LynxReal or Not?: Minnesota will lose only one playoff game. The Lynx have suffered six losses this season, not including the Commissioner’s Cup final, and none have been consecutive. Will they be able to overcome the first round and the semifinals without problems? It is possible. However, will they achieve a similar performance in the WNBA Finals, with a 2-2-1-1-1 format where the team with the best position in the standings will play at home for games 1, 2, 5 and 7, losing only one game?Can the Lynx reduce the Finals to a five-game series? It’s likely: they have a 17-1 home record this season, not counting the loss to Indiana in the Cup on July 1. Their only home loss in the regular season was to Atlanta on July 27.
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In Search of Local Advantage
New York LibertyReal or Not?: New York will fall to fourth place and face Minnesota in the WNBA semifinals. The Liberty have a 5-7 record since [Breanna Stewart](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/2998928/breanna-stewart) was sidelined with a bone bruise on July 30, briefly falling to third place in the standings, behind Atlanta. With Phoenix and Las Vegas nipping at their heels, the current champions seemed in danger of falling even further, with the possibility of a 1-vs-4 semifinal series against Minnesota.Verdict: Not real. Tuesday’s game against Atlanta will be crucial to prevent the Dream from securing second place, but New York has a fairly favorable schedule after that, with only three of their remaining nine games against teams above .500. And with Stewart aiming for a return date before her August 27th birthday, help is on the way. Without Stewart or [Jonquel Jones](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/2999101/jonquel-jones), the Liberty have been vulnerable, but with both, along with [Sabrina Ionescu](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/4066533/sabrina-ionescu), they have proven to be special time and again.Atlanta Dream
Real or Not?: The Dream has had more success with Griner coming off the bench The absence of [Brittney Griner](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/2490553/brittney-griner) in early August allowed Atlanta to move [Naz Hillmon](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/4398915/naz-hillmon) to the starting lineup, giving the Dream a better balance on the court than when they started with the 2-meter-tall Griner alongside Brionna Jones. After winning in Hillmon’s first five starts, Atlanta lost two of the last three games on a difficult six-game road trip on the West Coast. The Dream’s lineups with Hillmon have still outscored their opponents by 44 points since she became a starter. Griner has also looked more comfortable in a reserve role since returning to the lineup on August 10. After a quiet first game, Griner has averaged 11.3 points per game, 6.3 rebounds per game, and 1.8 blocks per game in just 18.9 minutes per game in the last four, shooting 60% from the field. Using this net points metric, ESPN’s Dean Oliver found that Griner is one of the five WNBA players who has improved the most off the bench relative to her production as a starter.Verdict: Real. Starting with Hillmon was always envisioned as the endgame for Atlanta when the playoffs arrived. Griner’s neck injury had the upside of allowing the Dream to arrive sooner.Phoenix MercuryReal or Not?: The Mercury are not true title contenders. Phoenix has a 6-7 record since July 16th, losing all games in that period against New York, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Las Vegas. Can the Mercury compete for the title if they can’t beat the teams vying for a first-round playoff spot? The Mercury’s game against the Aces on Thursday will have major implications for the standings. Both come into the matchup seven games behind league leader Minnesota, but only half a game behind Atlanta and New York. But it’s also an opportunity for Phoenix to play a good game against arguably the hottest team in the league right now.Verdict: Not real. Phoenix feels like it’s just now taking shape, finally healthy and able to put together lineups and combinations that the team would want to use in the postseason. Yes, the Mercury admit they have room for improvement to be their best version. But [Kahleah Copper](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/2998938/kahleah-copper), [Satou Sabally](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/4281929/satou-sabally) and [Alyssa Thomas](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/2529140/alyssa-thomas) have only played 14 games together this season. Once the Mercury’s big three have more time together, they expect to dominate their opponents with depth and endless offensive weapons.Las Vegas AcesReal or Not?: Las Vegas will finish with one of the top 3 seeds. Las Vegas is on an eight-game winning streak, the best in the league, and recently secured a big win over Atlanta. The Aces have a 22-14 record and are just behind Phoenix (21-13), which is in fourth place; both are seven games apart, but the Mercury have a slight advantage in winning percentage. They play on Thursday night in Las Vegas; if the Aces win, they will have the best record and maintain the regular season tiebreaker over the Mercury. [A’ja Wilson](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/3149391/aja-wilson) is also playing some of the best basketball of the season. Since the Aces’ winning streak began, the three-time MVP is averaging 26.9 points and 13.1 rebounds per game.Verdict: Not real. Las Vegas has a relatively light remaining schedule, with one game against Washington and three against Chicago. The games against the Dream and the Lynx should be considered must-win games. But the Aces need help from the teams currently above them, particularly the Liberty and the Dream. Atlanta has a difficult three-game stretch, against Minnesota, New York, and the Aces, but then ends the regular season against teams that are below .500. And New York, as indicated above, has six of its last nine games against teams below .500.With Good Chances of Reaching the Playoffs
Golden State ValkyriesReal or Not?: The Valkyries will make the playoffs in their inaugural season, but will be swept in the first round. The Valkyries are just one game away from sixth place, and with Indiana plagued by injuries and Seattle struggling, Golden State looks secure in the postseason, which would mark the first time in WNBA history that an expansion team reaches the playoffs in its first year. Golden State closes the regular season in a difficult stretch, with games against the Mercury (Friday), the Liberty (September 2), and two of the last three against the Lynx. Realistically, the Valkyries could finish in sixth place, but that still means a tough opponent in the first round.Verdict: Real. This season, as the first round moves to a 1-1-1 format, Golden State would be guaranteed a home game. Golden State has a 10-7 home record this season, and the magic inside the Ballhalla has made Chase Center one of the toughest buildings to play in this year. But the Valkyries will probably face the Dream, Liberty, Mercury or Aces, teams that are at their peak or recovering and building a stronger basketball. They also all have playoff experience.They Need Help
Seattle Storm
Real or Not?: The Storm fights in decisive moments. The Storm is stuck at .500 because it has lost nine games by five points or less, the most in the league, including six of seven losses during an August slide. Even before that, Seattle wasn’t excelling offensively down the stretch. According to WNBA Advanced Stats, the Storm’s 44% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in clutch situations ranks ninth.Verdict: Partially true. To some extent, that was predictable. Jewell Loyd was Seattle’s preferred option down the stretch last year, and after trading her, the Storm lacks shot creation. The Storm also ranks ninth in eFG% on shots that are not potential assists, according to GeniusIQ tracking, ahead of the same four teams. Even so, Seattle’s recent close losses have been as much about the opponent’s shot-making. Players have hit 7 of 13 (54%) from three-point range in clutch moments against the Storm in August. No other team that has faced at least 10 three-pointers in clutch moments in the month has seen its opponents make more than 42% of them. That is unlikely to continue, which should help Seattle’s chances of holding onto a playoff spot.Indiana FeverReal or Not?: Injuries will eventually catch up to Indiana and the Fever will not make the playoffs. The Fever certainly have a lot of work to do after losing a third guard to a season-ending injury when [Sophie Cunningham](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/3907781/sophie-cunningham) tore her ACL on Sunday. But Indiana has shown a remarkable amount of determination in the face of adversity, as evidenced by the franchise-record 21-point comeback win over the Connecticut Sun this weekend. Indiana desperately needs [Caitlin Clark](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/4433403/caitlin-clark) to return, but in the meantime it must watch newcomers [Odyssey Sims](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/2529047/odyssey-sims) and [Shey Peddy](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/1107/shey-peddy), both experienced professionals, step up in the backcourt. And the Fever still relies on Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston, two of the best players in the league, to lead the charge.Verdict: Not real. To miss the postseason, Indiana would have to really fall apart down the stretch and see teams like the Sparks and Mystics catch fire in the next three weeks, and neither group has looked particularly unstoppable. It won’t be easy, and it could go all the way, but we project that the Fever will still find a way to get into the playoffs.Los Angeles SparksReal or Not?: The Angels are the team that the top seeds don’t want to face. If they make the playoffs, the Sparks are going to be unusually hot for a lower seed. Since they started 6-14, Los Angeles has had an 11-4 record. Only the Aces have more wins in that span. The Sparks’ surge came as the team recovered. [Julie Allemand](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/4001679/julie-allemand) has improved Los Angeles’ game as a starting point guard, while [Cameron Brink](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/4433404/cameron-brink) and [Rae Burrell](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/4398764/rae-burrell) have strengthened the bench.Verdict: Not real. Staying this hot could be a challenge for the Sparks, who have occupied the second spot in offensive rankings since July 13th largely thanks to 37% 3-point shooting. Four Los Angeles players (Burrell, Brink, [Kelsey Plum](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/3065570/kelsey-plum) and [Azura Stevens](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/3142010/azura-stevens)) are shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc in that span. Only Plum has previously surpassed that mark for a full season. The Sparks’ playoff bid hit turbulent waters in their last four games. Los Angeles played two close games against the struggling Dallas and lost in Washington. The Sparks are undoubtedly better than their record, but they are probably not ready to threaten a higher seed.Washington MysticsReal or Not?: Washington won’t make the playoffs, but will help determine the top four. Relying on rookies [Sonia Citron](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/4433524/sonia-citron) and [Kiki Iriafen](https://www.espn.com/wnba/player/_/id/4898384/kiki-iriafen) and with a new coaching staff led by Sydney Johnson, the Mystics were never expected to compete this season. The fact that they are still in the playoff hunt is a victory for the franchise. But the Mystics have a difficult finish: seven of their last nine opponents are currently in playoff positions. Washington has won three of its last five games, but is coming off an 11-point loss to last-place Connecticut at home on Tuesday.Verdict. Real. We expect the Mystics to miss the postseason for the second consecutive year. But because they still face top-four contenders Las Vegas, Phoenix, and New York (twice), they could get an unexpected win or two that impacts the standings.
