The 2025 WNBA season has been marred by a series of injuries that have affected several of its stars.According to data collected, a total of 117 players have been absent in 868 matches so far. Among those affected are renowned figures such as Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Jonquel Jones, Jordin Canada, and Rhyne Howard, who have missed several games.A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas have also suffered absences, although to a lesser extent. Other players like Courtney Vandersloot, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Kayla Thornton, Katie Lou Samuelson, Georgia Amoore, and some Fever players, such as Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, and Sydney Colson, will not play again this season.However, some of the most prominent figures have already returned, and more are expected to do so as the postseason approaches. Which teams competing for or aspiring to the playoffs will benefit most from these returns?We analyze the six teams with the greatest chances of winning the championship, according to the Elo-based forecast model: Lynx, Dream, Aces, Liberty, Mercury, and Fever. We compare their title opportunities and Simple Ranking System (SRS) rankings with what they should be after adjusting the rankings for lost games of key players. We also estimate how much each team can gain with the players they have received, or are expected to receive, before or during the playoffs, using estimated RAPTOR rankings to calculate how many points their presence is worth in a game’s point differential.
Minnesota Lynx
Napheesa Collier
Status: Returned on August 24 (ankle)Record in lost matches: 7-3SRS with and without the absence of Collier: +9.43 vs. +10.64Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Collier’s absence: 58.8% vs. 68%The Lynx haven’t had many injuries this season, with Karlie Samuelson, who underwent foot surgery in July, being the only other significant player to miss a significant number of games. However, when one of the few injuries is to the player who was clearly leading the WNBA MVP race before being sidelined, it can make a difference.The Lynx lost consecutive games for the first (and only) time this season without Collier. Considering they still managed a 7-3 record, it’s surprising that they could be better than their regular season metrics suggest when the playoffs begin. When we updated Collier’s projected RAPTOR impact before the season with her regular season stats, it indicates that her absence cost Minnesota about 4.5 points for each game she missed (compared to a replacement-level player), a significant impact that can add up, even in a relatively small sample of games.The Lynx are expected to be as powerful as ever with Collier back and picking up where he left off.Atlanta Dream
Jordin Canada
Status: Out since August 13 (hamstring)Rhyne HowardStatus: Returned on August 10 (knee)Record in lost matches: 10-5SRS with and without their absences: +5.94 vs. +7.10Title possibilities after adjusting the classifications for their absences: 19.3% vs. 28%Although neither Canada nor Howard are at the same level as Collier or Stewart, the duo is very good, with projections indicating that each is worth almost 2 points per game relative to a replacement-level player in the missed games.The Dream have only been without both in one game, a three-point win over the Wings on July 30, but have had both available in 13 of 38 games. If Canada returns to join Howard for the playoffs, Atlanta should see a boost.Las Vegas Aces
A’ja WilsonStatus: Returned on July 12 (doll)Record in lost matches: 1-3SRS with and without Wilson’s absence: +0.96 vs. +1.47Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Wilson’s absence: 14.1% vs. 21%Perhaps even more than Collier, Wilson’s absence illustrates the impact of a superstar on a team’s season statistics. Wilson missed four games earlier this season (three due to a concussion in June and then one due to a right wrist sprain in July). Those project to have cost Las Vegas nearly 20 points of total scoring margin this season because Wilson adds a maximum of 5 net points per game over the replacement when he plays.The Aces still have to play above their regular season resume in the playoffs, and more like their form in 2023, when they were arguably the best team in the WNBA, even after accounting for Wilson’s brief absences. But she is proof that a team with MVP-level talent cannot be ruled out.New York Liberty
Breanna Stewart
Status: Returned on August 25 (knee)Record in lost matches: 5-8Jonquel Jones
Status: Returned on July 22 (ankle)Record in lost matches: 7-5SRS with and without their absences: +4.01 vs. +5.86Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for their absences: 2% vs. 8%Stewart represents the most costly statistical absence of the WNBA season: 48.5 total net points of scoring margin projected against the replacement in the 13 games she missed, starting in late July. It’s no coincidence that the Liberty went on a losing streak right after Stewart’s injury, and they are still trying to recover.New York is 6-9 with a -2.1 PPG differential since July 26, and their title chances have astonishingly decreased from 33% to 2%. And yet, with Stewart back and Jones healthy after hamstring and ankle injuries earlier in the year, no team should improve their regular season stats more than the Liberty. It’s just a question of whether their mid-season struggles put them on a path too difficult to defend their crown.Phoenix Mercury
Alyssa Thomas
Status: Returned on June 11 (calf)Record in lost matches: 2-3Natasha MackStatus: Returned on June 11 (back)Record in lost matches: 6-4SRS with and without their absences: +3.39 vs. +4.10Title possibilities after adjusting the classifications for their absences: 3.6% vs. 7%Like Wilson and Collier, Thomas is a perennial WNBA MVP candidate; she is third in the ESPN BET odds and is constantly on the periphery of the Wilson versus Collier conversation. Unsurprisingly, the five games Thomas missed in May and June are projected to cost Phoenix 15.8 points of total scoring margin this year.Then there’s Mack, who is having an incredible defensive season for the Mercury, with a 7.8% block rate, a 2.7% steal rate, a 23.3% defensive rebound rate, and a 2.7-point improvement in the team’s defensive rating when she’s on the court. And while it may seem strange to include a player who scores 4.4 points among the important injuries of a season, when we combine Mack’s defensive contributions with Thomas’s overall performance, the Mercury will be a better team in the playoffs with both healthy than what the overall regular season metrics suggest.Indiana Fever
Caitlin Clark
Status: Away since July 15th in the third lost time slot (ingle)Record in lost matches: 12-13SRS with and without their absences: +1.90 vs. +2.46Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Clark’s absence: 1.6% vs. 2%The most notable injury absence of the season, Clark has missed five times as many games in 2025 as during her high school or college careers. As usual, advanced metrics underestimate the impact of her injuries on Indiana’s results, but the Fever are 7.5 net points better when she is on the court and have an 8-5 record in the games she has played.Even so, there are likely to be limits on how far Clark can be expected to take his team after missing most of the year, especially when he looked rusty the last time he returned.
