Analyzing Aspirations in the Premier League: Who Are the Candidates?
The transfer season has concluded, and the first international break is coming to an end. It’s the ideal time to focus our attention on what we truly enjoy: the matches. After a summer in which Premier League teams invested a considerable amount in transfers, the squads are defined, and the league season begins in earnest this weekend. The first few matchdays of the league have shown little difference between the teams, with most accumulating between two and six points. Even the defending champion, Liverpool, who won their first three matches, did so with some difficulty. Now, it’s a good time to assess expectations. Combining current projections with betting odds, we can gain a clear view and estimate each team’s chances of winning the title or finishing in the top five. We will analyze the “conditions” necessary for the most ambitious teams to succeed in the 2025-26 season. We will divide the analysis into two parts: First, we will examine the main contenders for the title and the conditions for winning. Then, we will focus on the fight for a top-five position, analyzing the teams with at least a 15% chance.Conditions for the Title
Four teams currently have an estimated chance of at least 8% of winning the Premier League title: the top three in the table (Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal), plus Manchester City, whose four-year dominance came to an end last May. How many “conditions” does each team need?Liverpool: 2 Conditions
What if… all these expensive attackers work together? After investing in Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike, Liverpool signed Alexander Isak for a considerable sum. Although this gives them enviable offensive depth, they still haven’t achieved fluidity in attack.
Isak has not yet debuted, but with an attack led by Ekitike, Wirtz, Mohamed Salah, and Cody Gakpo, Liverpool averaged only 1.1 xG per game in their first three matches, which placed them 14th in the league. That they averaged 2.7 actual goals was an unsustainable achievement. With the arrival of Isak, they now have three new players who perform better in similar areas of the field. The initial Liverpool schedule was more difficult than usual, but this is an ongoing chemistry experiment.If… the transition defense isn’t a disaster. With so much offensive talent, Liverpool’s defense could be vulnerable in transition. Two perfect counterattacks from Bournemouth and four missed leads in their first three games (including the Community Shield) reinforced that doubt. They also failed to sign Marc Guéhi.
Although Liverpool kept a clean sheet against Arsenal, this is their biggest weakness until they prove otherwise.Arsenal: 2 Conditions
If… Can 190 million euros on new attackers break closed defenses? Arsenal invested in Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyökeres, and Noni Madueke with the aim of giving the team the talent and creativity to break closed defenses. However, the initial results have not been impressive. The trio has played 443 minutes and, excluding a penalty, has only scored one goal. Bukayo Saka, meanwhile, has one goal in 143 minutes. With their new defensive depth and stability, they have time to improve. But until they do, they might not have the offensive power needed to win the title.If… they can avoid closed defenses. They need more urgency. In losses and draws, Arsenal ranked low in counterattacks per game, touches in the attacking third, and possessions per game. Mikel Arteta might be obsessed with control, but they need more urgency to win.
Chelsea: 3 Conditions
If… the quality of the shots (and the power in set pieces) continues. The biggest concern for Chelsea was that, year after year, they bring in new attackers of different styles and qualities. However, the new signings João Pedro and Estãvão have performed from the start.
If… the pressing game improves. Chelsea ranked low in passes allowed per defensive action and in ball recoveries in the opponent’s half last season. They should be able to run more and force the play.
If… wear and tear doesn’t become a problem. Chelsea had a preseason with little rest, which could make them more vulnerable to wear and tear and injuries.Manchester City: 4 Conditions
If… the transition defense is less disastrous. With Rodri injured and the team’s age being a problem, City’s transition defense fell apart. They allowed many more shots and of better quality, and ended up conceding 10 more goals than in the 2023-24 season.
If… the midfield is more dynamic. Last season’s numbers were too low. Opponents did not find enough resistance in the midfield. This season, they are committing more fouls and making more defensive interventions, but ball recoveries are still lower.
If… the quality of the shots improves. City scored 24 goals less last season. This season, they are struggling in the finishing department.If… set-piece plays improve. City scored only seven goals from set pieces last season, down from an average of 16.5 during their title run. They haven’t scored any in the three games this season.
Top Five
Each of the mentioned teams has at least a 68% chance of finishing in the top five and, probably, qualifying for the next Champions League. The Premier League is the big favorite to obtain a fifth place.These are the teams with chances of entering the top 5:
Newcastle United: 2 Conditions
If… the goals return. Despite losing Isak at the end of the transfer market and only accumulating two points in three matches, Newcastle is the clear favorite for the last spot in the top five. They still have key players like Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali. The main problem is obvious: they scored two goals from set pieces in 32 minutes against Liverpool, and in the other 238 minutes of the season they haven’t scored. They need the late August signings, Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, to contribute quickly.If… they have the depth to maintain this pace. They have been running a lot and are second in the league in ball recoveries and recoveries in the opponent’s half; they are also first in total possessions.Manchester United: 2 Conditions
If… a defense that prioritizes defense actually defends. United is winning the battle for shot volume, but is losing the battle for shot quality. Coach Ruben Amorim is inflexible in his love for the 3-4-2-1 formation, and in theory that should allow for many players in defense. But United is suffering vertical attacks.
Brighton: 2 Conditions
If… effectiveness returns in the definition. Brighton usually performs below its xG figures in attack. They have scored only three goals with shots worth 6.2 xG this season.
They need to quickly reverse these problems if they want to live up to their potential.If… this year’s incorporations bring something. Brighton has signed promising youngsters, but they haven’t had much participation yet. It’s more difficult to reach the potential if they don’t get faster results from their summer investments.
Bournemouth: 1 Condition
If… the completely rebuilt defense is still working. Bournemouth lost key defenders, but their initial defensive results are solid.Crystal Palace: 3 Conditions
If… the depth remains. Palace will play in Europe this season for the first time since 1998. Is it enough to withstand the European wear and tear and improve their 12th place in the league?If… the definition improves without Eze. Will the new offensive options Yeremy Pino and Christantus Uche compensate for Eze’s departure?If… a Plan B arises. Palace had the lowest possession percentage in the league last season, but forced many counterattacks. They need alternatives.
Tottenham Hotspur: 2 Conditions
