Messi and Argentina 2026: Last World Cup? Analysis of Leo’s role after Club World Cup

Will Messi be able to lead Argentina in the 2026 World Cup?

As Lionel Messi approaches the end of his legendary career, a crucial question emerges: Will the Argentine star be able to lead his national team, Argentina, to glory once more in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Although at 38 years old, Messi continues to dazzle in the MLS with Inter Miami, the competition he faces weekly does not always match the intensity and technical quality of the international stage. Therefore, the FIFA Club World Cup, where Inter Miami faced elite teams from Europe and South America, offered a vision of how Messi currently performs against high-level defenders and what this means for his role in the national team next summer.

The analysis of his evolution on the field and how Inter Miami and Argentina are adapting their strategies to preserve his impact for next year’s tournament.

Messi’s Evolution at Club Level

A few months after debuting with Barcelona on October 16, 2004, Messi scored his first professional goal with an assist from Ronaldinho, becoming the club’s youngest goalscorer at the time. Since then, the Argentinian forward has broken most of the important records, set new standards, and redefined the game of football. Messi surprised the world in 2007 in a match against Espanyol, when he recovered the ball in his own field and, with a display of dribbling and skill, made his way through multiple defenders to reach the rival area and score a goal. He defied expectations as an explosive right winger, left-footed, who went into the center to create seemingly impossible opportunities for his teammates. The then-Barcelona coach, Pep Guardiola, redefined the meaning and role of a traditional striker, transforming Messi into a “false 9” and harnessing his potential, which allowed him to surpass virtually any opponent. Messi’s physical abilities, combined with his distinctive vision of the game, quickly made him one of the greatest in the history of the sport.

His skills with Barcelona did not initially translate into immediate success for the Argentinian national team, as coaches struggled to utilize Messi’s talent. But everything changed under Lionel Scaloni. The Albiceleste no longer depended on the captain to do everything, but rather created a support system for Messi to shine in the final third of the field.

Now, at 38 years old, his approach to the game has matured, but the ability to influence any match remains intact. In Inter Miami, the club continues to find ways to capitalize on Messi’s talent without subjecting his body to physical overload. The MLS schedule runs from February to December, with 34 regular season games and a playoff campaign of more than a month if a team qualifies for the final. This year, Miami and Messi also participated in the Concacaf Champions Cup, the FIFA Club World Cup and will participate in the upcoming Leagues Cup, which begins at the end of July. While most of Messi’s club matches are now played in the MLS, where he often faces less pressure and intensity, the Club World Cup offered a clearer perspective. Facing teams like Paris Saint-Germain, winner of the UEFA Champions League, and previously FC Porto and Palmeiras, allowed Messi to measure himself against defenders more similar to those he will see in the knockout stage of a World Cup. Inter Miami coach Javier Mascherano closely monitors Messi’s minutes and rests him on occasion in less important matches in the MLS regular season. Individually, Messi adapted his style to maximize his influence on the field and preserve enough energy to shine when necessary. His skillset hasn’t changed, but the way Messi utilizes his greatest assets has evolved. He now relies more on his precise reading of the game to provide a perfectly timed assist and his ability to find space to score. Although Messi’s ease of weaving through a defense and reaching the final third may be seen at a slower pace, it is still just as effective. Statistically, Messi’s transformation is easy to track, as is the freedom granted to him by MLS defenses. In the Club World Cup, he averaged 5.5 meters covered by ball carrying, a figure lower than the 6.1 meters per carry in MLS. That figure of 5.5 is in line with what Messi produced in his last seasons in Europe (5.2 with PSG in 2022-23, 5.7 with Barcelona in 2020-21), while the 6.1 mark recalls Messi’s impact at the peak of his power, when he averaged 6.2 meters per carry in 2011-12. His 90-minute dribbling attempts follow a similar pattern. His average of 4.5 in this Club World Cup is significantly lower than in 2011-12, when he averaged 9.1 at his peak explosiveness, but his 7.99 per 90 in MLS illustrates the opportunities with the ball at his feet that the league’s opposition presents to him. When faced with tougher competition, we can see a clear shift from dribbling to more efficient movement and play. At the same time, his passes into the attacking third per 90 minutes have decreased from 35.6 in 2011-12 with Barcelona to only 13.0 in the Club World Cup, not due to less participation, but rather to a more selective and precise approach. That number increases to 24.3 in his home game in 2025. Messi may no longer dominate with constant movement, but his ability to choose the right moment and make the right decision remains intact, still being decisive against high-level opponents. In the Club World Cup, Messi averaged 5.5 meters covered by ball carrying, a figure lower than the 6.1 meters per carry in MLS. That figure of 5.5 is in line with what Messi produced in his last seasons in Europe, while the 6.1 mark recalls Messi’s impact at the peak of his power. By modifying his game, Messi may feel a sensation of pain or muscle tension and still be clinical with his left foot. When facing Porto in the second match of the group stage of the Club World Cup, Mascherano confirmed that the player felt discomfort throughout the match, but insisted on staying on the field to play. By doing so, Messi was able to score the winning goal from a set piece, launching the ball into the upper right corner of the net, as fans have seen on numerous occasions.

We can say that he is the best player who has played this game, but his desire to win is amazing, because [against Porto], even in the last minutes, tired and injured, he kept helping the team to achieve the result. We have to hold on to that and know that having him gives us an advantage, and we have to capture his spirit.

Mascherano

Even injured, Messi can count on the precision of his left foot. He continued to be effective in the round of 16 against PSG, showing moments of his evolved game in the second half before being eliminated from the competition with a 4-0 defeat. Messi dribbled past PSG players in an attempt to enable Tadeo Allende and Luis Suárez for the goal, but his teammates could not capitalize on the Argentine’s support. His ability to weave between players to reach the final third can still surprise even the current European champions, but he needed help. — Becherano

Messi’s Evolution for Argentina

What other chapters are left in this extraordinary story?

Is it possible that the 4-0 defeat to PSG in the round of 16 of the Club World Cup was the last time we see Messi in a major tournament? There is still no official confirmation that he will play in next year’s World Cup.

The phrase has always been “wait and see”, and the player needs to confirm for himself that he will be able to do justice in 2026. There are few better gauges than a qualifying match against the current European champion. It is unreasonable to expect a 38-year-old player to perform at his previous peak level. In the race between time and the athlete, there is only one winner. It’s been two and a half years since the Qatar World Cup, and it’s unlikely we’ll see Messi consistently reach that level. But the Club World Cup has shown that he can still influence the course of events, dropping deep to control the pace of the game, closer to the goal with a sudden burst of acceleration and, of course, those free kicks where it almost seems like he picks up the ball and places it in the top corner of the goal. Argentina and Scaloni will most likely still be able to find a way to ensure that Messi participates in the next World Cup. The relationship between the Argentine coach and the captain has been nothing short of remarkable. Scaloni took over the position on an interim basis after the 2018 World Cup in Russia. He was seen as an economic resource, but he arrived, without experience, full of ambition. He had been greatly influenced by the then world champion, France, and announced his intention to introduce a new style, based on rapid transitions. His team would win the ball and be in a position to shoot in three or four seconds. It hardly seemed like a suitable idea for a Messi team, and it started disastrously in the 2019 Copa América. It could have gone wrong, but Scaloni was lucky enough to have a new Messi.

At odds with Barcelona at the time, Messi seemed to make the Argentinian national team his top priority. What needed to change? For a long time, there was a feeling that his distant attitude had an intimidating effect on the rest of the team. But in 2019, there was a big difference. The journalists covering the team noted that he had transformed into a vocal leader and a presence of encouragement. Argentina lost against Brazil in the semifinals, but left the Cup with the outline of a team, both in a tactical and psychological sense.

The team had relied on possession, wearing down the opposition and giving the ball to Messi where he could do the most damage, near the goal. And they lined up almost like Messi and his fan club. The others had reverence for him and had to do whatever was necessary to give him a platform to lead the team to victory.

At the final whistle of the 2021 Copa América, when Messi finally won an absolute title for his country, the entire squad ran towards him to celebrate, and, of course, the team had an even greater prize to celebrate at the end of the following year.

The Qatar World Cup was a master class in Scaloni’s adjustments, altering the system based on the opposition and making personnel changes. The changes were designed to help the main idea remain the same, to help Argentina get the best out of Messi. The team soon discovered that the tournament would be hard work and that they would not have the majority of the possession they had imagined.

So Lautaro Martínez had to give up his center forward position to Julián Álvarez, a forward with the soul of a midfielder who could do all of Messi’s work for him. But now what? Is it still worth making so many sacrifices for the benefit of a single player?

The worst moment Argentina has endured since Qatar came at a moment of historic triumph. In November 2023, Argentina defeated Brazil 1-0 at the Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, the first time Brazil had lost a World Cup qualifying match at home. In reality, the result was better than the performance. And there was one more reason for Scaloni to worry. It’s true that Messi wasn’t 100%, but he made little impression, something that would have been unthinkable a couple of years before, and he was substituted with 15 minutes to go. In the press conference after the match, Scaloni flirted with the idea of resigning. The explanation was simple: Scaloni had built his team around Messi and was beginning to wonder if that formula was still working. But time has a way of turning the unthinkable into the possible. And just as the 2019 and 2021 Copa América tournaments were important in cementing a bond between Messi and the team, the 2024 tournament hinted at a future without him. In the second leg of the final against Colombia, he was injured and substituted. It could be said that Argentina improved in his absence and won the match. Scaloni has had the opportunity to analyze how to set up his team without Messi. The first option was to play with Álvarez and Martínez together, with Álvarez falling into Messi’s position, which was the model when Argentina beat Chile 3-0 last September. More recently, Scaloni has opted for Álvarez as a center forward, combining with Thiago Almada, who comes in from the left as a playmaker.

That’s how in March, Argentina won away against Uruguay and then put on a magnificent performance to beat Brazil 4-1. For the group, without detracting from their reverence for Messi, it was a great psychological boost to win so well without him.

And Messi also seems happy with this situation. Back for the FIFA dates in June, he came off the bench in the visit to Chile, and was substituted in the second half at home against Colombia, when, just after he was substituted, Almada scored the equalizing goal. The dynamic has changed. It’s no longer just about Messi and his fan club. His fans have grown and are ready to take on more responsibility. And it’s this very confidence in his teammates, the awareness that not everything depends on him anymore, that makes it more likely that Messi will close out his World Cup career with another attempt at glory next year. — Vickery