Arsenal: Error in signings? Analysis of the “win-now” and the future

Arsenal: A Change of Strategy in Pursuit of the Title?

In May, Arsenal coach Mikel Arteta sparked debate among football fans. “Winning trophies is about being in the right place at the right time,” Arteta stated. “Liverpool won the title with fewer points than we have had in the last two seasons. With the points from the last two seasons, we would have two Premier League titles.” Although his words generated controversy, time proved him right. Liverpool was crowned champion of the 2024-25 season with 84 points, five less than Arsenal had accumulated the previous season. However, Liverpool’s victory was facilitated by the lack of direct competition. Arsenal, with a large number of points, was left at the gates of the title, evidencing the competitiveness of the league. The lesson seems to be the same that has characterized Arteta’s management at Arsenal: patience. Trophies are won year after year, maintaining a constant presence in the fight. After betting on a rookie coach and signing mostly young players, Arsenal has finished second for three consecutive years. In that period, they have accumulated 247 points, only surpassed by Manchester City, but ahead of Liverpool. Arsenal is the only team that hasn’t won a trophy, but it’s also the only one that hasn’t finished outside the top two. Some analysts suggest that there is a kind of “mental barrier” that prevents Arsenal from overcoming their direct competitors. However, much of this can be attributed to factors such as luck and injuries. If Arsenal maintains this level of performance, it is likely that they will win the Premier League at some point. However, the club seems to have changed course. This summer’s signings suggest that Arsenal no longer wants to wait; it wants to win now.

Building the Current Team

If all the players had been healthy last season, Arsenal’s starting eleven could have been: Calafiori at left-back, Magalhães and Saliba in central defense, and White at right-back. Rice, Merino and Ødegaard in midfield. And up front, from left to right: Martinelli, Havertz and Saka.

The important thing is to highlight the age of these players when they arrived at the club: Calafiori (22), Magalhães (22), Saliba (18), White (23), Rice (24), Merino (28), Ødegaard (22), Martinelli (18), Havertz (24) and Saka (18). The average age at the time of the acquisition of these ten players was 21.9 years old.

In summary, Arsenal’s transformation into one of the best teams in the world was based on three pillars: signing players who fit the coach’s tactical plan, signing players with potential for improvement, and the development of Saka, who became one of the best players in the world. In 2021-22, Arsenal was the youngest team in the Premier League and finished the season with 69 points. In 2022-23, it improved significantly, adding 84 points. In 2023-24, it continued to improve, reaching 89 points. However, the dynamic changed. The team aged and its performance decreased, totaling 74 points. This demonstrated that internal improvement and youth were not enough to win the league.

The image shows an analysis of Martin Zubimendi, one of Arsenal’s signings. The main problem for Arsenal was that their best players played fewer minutes last season. This, added to certain tactical aspects, led to a decrease in the team’s performance.

Will “Win-Now” Signings Work in the Premier League?

In the current transfer market, Arsenal has announced the arrival of Nørgaard, 31 years old, and Zubimendi, 26 years old. In addition, the signing of Gyökeres, 27 years old, is rumored, and negotiations are underway with Eze, also 27 years old. If these signings were to materialize, the average age of the new players would be 25.8 years old, almost four years older than the average age of Arsenal’s starting players when they were acquired. While the signings of Nørgaard and Zubimendi seem promising, the large investments in Zubimendi and Gyökeres represent a bet on players who are expected to be starters in a club that aims to win the Premier League and the Champions League next season. The acquisition of players over 26 years old generally implies that the club will not get the best of the player and also limits financial flexibility in the future. Arsenal has four important contracts to renew. Saliba and Saka’s contracts expire next season, while Rice and Ødegaard’s will expire the following year. These players, with good reason, expect significant salary increases. Arsenal is looking to win titles and, therefore, it is understandable that they want to take advantage of current opportunities. However, in doing so, they could shorten their window to win titles and limit long-term resources. Ultimately, winning a trophy depends on the right moment. And Mikel Arteta, more than anyone, knows it.