NHL Panic Index: Which Teams Are Suffering After Thanksgiving?

The NHL Panic Meter in Action: Who’s Shaking on Thanksgiving?

The NHL season is at a crucial point, and the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States serves as a key indicator for teams’ playoff aspirations. Since the league adopted the wild card format in the 2013-14 season, an impressive 77% of the teams that were in playoff positions by this date managed to secure their place in the postseason (excluding the two seasons affected by the pandemic). In half of those ten seasons, 13 of the 16 teams remained in playoff spots at the end of the regular season. The margin for error is minimal, with a maximum of 13 and a minimum of 11 Thanksgiving teams ultimately advancing. Last season, teams like the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, St. Louis Blues, and Edmonton Oilers, who were not in playoff positions at Thanksgiving, managed to sneak into the postseason. In the last ten seasons (excluding those affected by COVID), the teams that managed to reach the playoffs from outside the qualifying positions were, on average, 2.8 points away from a playoff spot. Here’s the NHL’s “Thanksgiving Panic Index,” an analysis of each team’s status, from total calm to despair.

Complete Nirvana

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have reached a state of spiritual enlightenment. With an average of 4.00 goals per game (best in the NHL) and allowing only 2.18 goals against (also best in the league), the path to victory seems clear. With a points percentage of .841 and only one regulation loss as of November 24th, the team is in a state of grace. Stathletes gives the Avalanche the highest probability of making the playoffs, winning their conference, and ultimately lifting the Stanley Cup. Namaste, Nathan MacKinnon.

Zero Panic

Carolina Hurricanes

Dallas Stars

Tampa Bay Lightning

These three teams are where many expected them to be. The Lightning lead the Atlantic Division, despite injuries and production concerns from some of their key players, such as Brayden Point. The Hurricanes maintain a positive goal differential, driven by their offense, despite the absence of Jaccob Slavin for much of the season. The Stars have weathered injuries, thanks to players like Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, and Wyatt Johnston, who have contributed significantly to the team’s goals.

Relative Panic, but Satisfied

Minnesota Wild

New York Islanders

Philadelphia Flyers

Pittsburgh Penguins

Utah Mammoth

Washington Capitals

The key here is “relative.” Every team has reasons to be optimistic. The Flyers have found a competent goalie, Dan Vladar. The Islanders combine the play of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the outstanding goaltending of Ilya Sorokin. The Capitals are staying in the fight thanks to their goalie Logan Thompson and the good offensive start of Tom Wilson. The Mammoth are in a playoff position with young stars like Logan Cooley. The Penguins have received MVP-level performances from Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The Wild, for their part, have the return of Kirill Kaprizov and the arrival of Jesper Wallstedt.

Panic Until They Recover Their Health

Boston Bruins

Florida Panthers

Los Angeles Kings

New Jersey Devils

Ottawa Senators

Vegas Golden Knights

Winnipeg Jets

All these teams have dealt with significant injuries to key players. The Panthers, Stanley Cup champions, have had to face the absence of Matthew Tkachuk and the injury of Aleksander Barkov. The Devils have been affected by the absence of Jack Hughes. The Bruins and Kings have also suffered from the absence of their star defenses. The Senators, for their part, are awaiting the return of Brady Tkachuk.

NHL Panic Index: Which Teams Are Suffering After Thanksgiving?

The Tkachuk brothers announce a new podcast.

Panic at the Goal

Columbus Blue Jackets

Detroit Red Wings

Edmonton Oilers

Montreal Canadiens

St. Louis Blues

The goaltending is the Achilles’ heel of the Oilers, with a worrying save percentage. The Blues also suffer from a lack of solidity in goal. The problem for the Blue Jackets and the Red Wings is the imbalance, while the Canadiens are affected by the inconsistent performance of their goalies.

Regression to the Mean, Moderate Panic

Anaheim Ducks

Chicago Blackhawks

San Jose Sharks

Seattle Kraken

The PDO, which combines shooting percentage and save percentage, is an indicator of a team’s “luck.” The Blackhawks, Sharks, and Kraken have had a high PDO, suggesting a possible regression to the mean. The Ducks, on the other hand, rely on a strong offense and need to improve on defense.

Existential Panic

Buffalo Sabres

For the Sabres, uncertainty is constant. With a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs according to Money Puck and 33.4% according to Stathletes, the team’s future is uncertain.

Extremely Terrified

Calgary Flames

New York Rangers

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs, with a points percentage below .500, are struggling to find their rhythm. The Flames find themselves in a considerable hole. The Rangers, although they have a good chance of making the postseason, suffer from a lack of offensive consistency.