The NHL Panic Meter in Action: Who’s Shaking on Thanksgiving?
The NHL season is at a crucial point, and the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States serves as a key indicator for teams’ playoff aspirations. Since the league adopted the wild card format in the 2013-14 season, an impressive 77% of the teams that were in playoff positions by this date managed to secure their place in the postseason (excluding the two seasons affected by the pandemic). In half of those ten seasons, 13 of the 16 teams remained in playoff spots at the end of the regular season. The margin for error is minimal, with a maximum of 13 and a minimum of 11 Thanksgiving teams ultimately advancing. Last season, teams like the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, St. Louis Blues, and Edmonton Oilers, who were not in playoff positions at Thanksgiving, managed to sneak into the postseason. In the last ten seasons (excluding those affected by COVID), the teams that managed to reach the playoffs from outside the qualifying positions were, on average, 2.8 points away from a playoff spot. Here’s the NHL’s “Thanksgiving Panic Index,” an analysis of each team’s status, from total calm to despair.Complete Nirvana
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche have reached a state of spiritual enlightenment. With an average of 4.00 goals per game (best in the NHL) and allowing only 2.18 goals against (also best in the league), the path to victory seems clear. With a points percentage of .841 and only one regulation loss as of November 24th, the team is in a state of grace. Stathletes gives the Avalanche the highest probability of making the playoffs, winning their conference, and ultimately lifting the Stanley Cup. Namaste, Nathan MacKinnon.Zero Panic
Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning
These three teams are where many expected them to be. The Lightning lead the Atlantic Division, despite injuries and production concerns from some of their key players, such as Brayden Point. The Hurricanes maintain a positive goal differential, driven by their offense, despite the absence of Jaccob Slavin for much of the season. The Stars have weathered injuries, thanks to players like Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, and Wyatt Johnston, who have contributed significantly to the team’s goals.Relative Panic, but Satisfied
Minnesota Wild
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth
Washington Capitals
The key here is “relative.” Every team has reasons to be optimistic. The Flyers have found a competent goalie, Dan Vladar. The Islanders combine the play of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the outstanding goaltending of Ilya Sorokin. The Capitals are staying in the fight thanks to their goalie Logan Thompson and the good offensive start of Tom Wilson. The Mammoth are in a playoff position with young stars like Logan Cooley. The Penguins have received MVP-level performances from Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The Wild, for their part, have the return of Kirill Kaprizov and the arrival of Jesper Wallstedt.Panic Until They Recover Their Health
Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights
Winnipeg Jets
All these teams have dealt with significant injuries to key players. The Panthers, Stanley Cup champions, have had to face the absence of Matthew Tkachuk and the injury of Aleksander Barkov. The Devils have been affected by the absence of Jack Hughes. The Bruins and Kings have also suffered from the absence of their star defenses. The Senators, for their part, are awaiting the return of Brady Tkachuk.
Panic at the Goal
Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues
The goaltending is the Achilles’ heel of the Oilers, with a worrying save percentage. The Blues also suffer from a lack of solidity in goal. The problem for the Blue Jackets and the Red Wings is the imbalance, while the Canadiens are affected by the inconsistent performance of their goalies.Regression to the Mean, Moderate Panic
Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Kraken
The PDO, which combines shooting percentage and save percentage, is an indicator of a team’s “luck.” The Blackhawks, Sharks, and Kraken have had a high PDO, suggesting a possible regression to the mean. The Ducks, on the other hand, rely on a strong offense and need to improve on defense.Existential Panic
Buffalo Sabres
For the Sabres, uncertainty is constant. With a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs according to Money Puck and 33.4% according to Stathletes, the team’s future is uncertain.Extremely Terrified
Calgary Flames
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs, with a points percentage below .500, are struggling to find their rhythm. The Flames find themselves in a considerable hole. The Rangers, although they have a good chance of making the postseason, suffer from a lack of offensive consistency.Beyond Panic
Nashville Predators
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks, after a bad start, are considering a rebuild. The Predators, with their future at stake, could take a similar path.
