The 2025 season is crucial for several NFL quarterbacks and their respective teams. The uncertainty in the most important position in the game is palpable, both in the short and long term. We analyze the quarterback market for the 2026 offseason, projecting which teams might have questions at the position. We evaluate the most relevant situations, focusing on those with legitimate doubts about the season’s performance and avoiding those that offer contractual certainty. For example, although it might seem like an important year for Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, his contract guarantees $37 million in 2026 and $29 million in 2027. Dak Prescott in Dallas also has stability, with $40 million guaranteed for 2026 and restructures that make his cut impossible without a significant financial penalty. The Bears, Vikings, and Falcons are still in the early stages with their quarterbacks selected in the first round last year. In contrast, the Ravens might have to address Lamar Jackson’s contract, whose impact on the salary cap for 2026 amounts to $74.5 million. Although previous negotiations were tense, there is no reason to think that the Ravens want to do without Jackson. Therefore, Baltimore does not enter this evaluation. We have identified 12 situations where the quarterback landscape could change significantly in 2026. We present two possible scenarios for each team: the most likely and a remote possibility. We start with Arizona.
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Arizona Cardinals
Current Quarterback: Kyler MurrayContract valid until: 2027, with team option for 2028 Murray, just turned 28 years old, had a healthy season and is surrounded by talented players who support him. His QBR of 66.6 placed him among the top 10 last season. The main criticism is that he has failed to be the franchise player that was expected of him as the first pick of the 2019 draft. He still has time to prove himself, and if the Cardinals have a good season, Murray could secure his future for 2026. His contract includes about $40 million in salary and guaranteed bonuses for 2026. However, there are no guarantees after 2026, and if Murray has health or performance issues, the Cardinals could consider a change. They could cut him after 2026 with minimal dead money impact. If the situation worsened before, cutting him next offseason would cost them around $58 million, a manageable amount.Most likely scenario: The Cardinals have a decent season, possibly competing for a playoff spot, and keep Murray at least until 2026. If Murray plays well, he could negotiate an extension that offers him more security than his current contract.Remote possibility: Arizona’s season collapses, there are changes in management, and a decision is made to seek a new quarterback in the 2026 draft. Murray could be released or traded, while one of the top quarterback prospects of 2026 arrives in Arizona in the first round.Carolina Panthers
Current Quarterback: Bryce YoungContract valid until: 2026, with team option for 2027 Young had a difficult rookie season and start to his second year, being Andy Dalton’s backup at the beginning of 2024. It seemed he might become a draft bust after being the first pick in 2023. However, he regained the starting position and finished the season with a good performance under coach Dave Canales. Now, expectations are high for Young to continue improving and become Carolina’s franchise quarterback. His contract is fully guaranteed and pays him a total of approximately $10.2 million over the next two years. Next May, the Panthers will have to decide whether to exercise his fifth-year option for 2027, which will likely cost around $25 million. It’s a crucial year for Young. If he doesn’t perform and the Panthers don’t exercise the option, they will likely look to replace him as early as next offseason. If he plays well and they exercise the option, he will have fully guaranteed money in 2027 and likely won’t be going anywhere.Most likely scenario: Young improves his performance from the end of 2024, the offensive team around him starts to function, and the Panthers exercise the option, continuing to develop Young as their quarterback of the future.Remote possibility: The Panthers are the surprise team of the 2025 season. Young plays well enough to make his first Pro Bowl, and Carolina makes the playoffs. In this scenario, the Panthers not only exercise the option, but also negotiate an extension with Young.
Cleveland Browns
Current Quarterback: Joe Flacco
Contract valid until: 2025
The quarterback situation in Cleveland is the most unpredictable in the NFL. Flacco, 40, will start as the starter in Week 1, after helping the team reach the playoffs at the end of the 2023 season. He won the quarterback competition in training camp, largely due to the injuries of the others. Kenny Pickett, acquired in a trade with the Steelers, could have competed for the position, but was unable to play enough due to a hamstring injury. The Browns drafted Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, but both struggled to get playing time. Deshaun Watson, signed for two more years with $46 million guaranteed per year, may not play this season due to an Achilles tendon injury. In summary, the situation includes a 40-year-old veteran, another former first-round pick on his third team, a left-handed rookie, and Watson’s contract weighing on the team.
Indianapolis Colts
Current Quarterback: Daniel Jones
Contract valid until: 2025
The Colts selected Anthony Richardson in the 2023 draft. He has played in only 15 of 34 games since then, missing time due to injuries and performance. Last season, he completed 47.7% of his passes and threw eight touchdown passes with 12 interceptions. Therefore, the Colts signed Jones to compete with Richardson for the starting position this summer. Jones won the position, and the coach insisted that it wasn’t just for Week 1, but for the entire season. We’ll see. Jones has been the most consistent option in camp, but Richardson offers a higher potential due to his size, speed, and arm strength. The problem for the Colts is that Richardson hasn’t stayed healthy enough for them to see if he can reach his potential. Things are getting tense in Indianapolis, and it might be tempting to stick with Jones if he gives the Colts the best chance to win games immediately. But the team made a big investment in Richardson and is in a bad long-term position if that pick doesn’t work out. Also, Jones hasn’t exactly been the healthiest quarterback in the league, so there’s no guarantee that Indianapolis won’t have to turn to Richardson at some point.Most likely scenario: Each of these players starts at least six games for the Colts in 2025. Maybe someone else starts one too. The Colts reach the end of the season still uncertain about Richardson and face a tough decision about his fifth-year option next May. But Jones moves forward, and Indy looks to the draft or free agency for their next answer. It’s difficult to predict the path, as a bad season by the Colts could lead to changes among the decision-makers, as well as among the quarterbacks. But the team would need a long-term solution, so Indy would probably prefer to use the draft to find a new QB. If the Colts needed a veteran backup, maybe they could go for someone like Kirk Cousins, assuming the Falcons let him go this time.Remote possibility: Jones is struggling, opening the door for Richardson to reclaim the position, and the light comes on. Sure, he’s still prone to the occasional brutal mistake, but Richardson makes three or four dazzling plays with his arm and legs every week that others simply can’t do. The Colts head into the next offseason excited to exercise Richardson’s fifth-year option and continue working with him now that he’s shown he can stay healthy and play at a high level in the NFL.Las Vegas Raiders
Current Quarterback: Geno SmithContract valid until: 2027
Smith’s contract doesn’t obligate the Raiders to keep him beyond this season. He has $18.5 million guaranteed for 2026, but because the Raiders don’t like to include signing bonuses in their contracts, that’s the extent of the dead money hit if they want to cut him next offseason. If they keep him through 2026, they would pay him a total of $40 million this year and $26.5 million next year. There will be no guarantees on the books for 2027, which means Las Vegas could do without him after 2026 without any impact on dead money.These are worst-case scenarios, of course. Smith is a good quarterback. He completed 70.4% of his passes last season with the Seahawks, throwing 21 touchdown passes. The new Raiders coach, Pete Carroll, believes in him because of their time together in Seattle. Therefore, Smith could play well and get an extension (or at least more money) next offseason.
But he also turns 35 in October, and the structure of his contract indicates the Raiders weren’t willing to commit long-term. This feels like a tryout season for Smith in Las Vegas. Even if the Raiders found a better option in next year’s draft, keeping Smith as a $26.5 million backup wouldn’t be impossible. It’s more or less what Atlanta is doing right now with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr.Most likely scenario: Smith plays well in Chip Kelly’s offense, relying on rookie running back Ashton Jeanty and second-year tight end Brock Bowers. The Raiders win more games than we’re used to seeing them win because Carroll is now the coach. They don’t make the playoffs, but they stay in the race longer than last season and enter 2026 with good vibes. At 35, Smith still isn’t getting a long-term contract, but Las Vegas adjusts his deal to be more in line with the market before entering 2026 as a rising team.Remote possibility: Things go wrong for Smith and the Raiders draft high and select their quarterback of the future. Smith stays, either to start until the rookie is ready or as a backup until another team wants to trade for him.Los Angeles Rams
Current Quarterback: Matthew Stafford
Contract in effect until: 2026
Stafford earns $44 million this year (all guaranteed) and then $40 million in 2026 (none of which is guaranteed). He threw for 3,762 yards and 20 touchdowns last season. But he has also been dealing with a back issue in camp, and at 37 years old, Stafford has reached the point in his career where the decision to continue playing comes after each season. Therefore, it is entirely possible that this will be his last season (although he has not indicated anything of the sort). The Rams struggled to reach an agreement with him on this year’s contract, even considering trade talks before he agreed to his restructured deal in February. Therefore, they know this deal isn’t forever. Their first-round trade with the Falcons in this year’s draft leaves them with two first-round picks in 2026, so they are in a position to address the quarterback situation that way if they choose to.Most likely scenario: Stafford answers the call for Week 1 and has his usual strong season. The Rams make the playoffs and win one or two postseason games. Wow, maybe they even reach the Super Bowl and present Stafford with the opportunity to really retire in style. The dance repeats itself next offseason when he turns 38 in February, but this time Stafford and the Rams part ways, either because he decides to retire or because they decide it’s time to switch to another option. In this scenario, the Rams will likely use those two first-round picks to address the long-term position. But if they select someone who isn’t ready yet, it’s easy to see them looking for a reclamation project from the Kyle Shanahan tree like Mac Jones or Malik Willis.Remote possibility: The back continues to be a problem throughout the season, leaving the Rams to put things together around Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett. This doesn’t go well. The Rams don’t make the playoffs, say goodbye to Stafford, and use their two first-round picks in a package to move up and select a quarterback overall. This quarterback, under the tutelage of Sean McVay, wins three Super Bowls for the franchise.New Orleans Saints
Current Quarterback: Spencer Rattler or Tyler ShoughContract valid until: Rattler 2027, Shough 2028 The Saints have maintained a competition between Rattler, their 2024 fifth-round pick, and Shough, their 2025 second-round pick. Because Shough was the number 40 pick with a new offensive-minded coach in place, it was assumed he would have the advantage. But Rattler had a solid preseason and may have done enough to keep Shough at bay, at least to start the season.Because neither quarterback was a first-round pick, the Saints don’t have a fifth-year option on either of them. After this year, Rattler will have two years and about $2.3 million left on his contract, and he won’t be eligible for an extension until after the 2026 season. Shough will have three years and about $5.5 million left on his contract after 2025, and he won’t be eligible for an extension until after the 2027 season. Both players will be options for the Saints for the foreseeable future, assuming New Orleans wants them in the mix.
Most likely scenario: Rattler certainly has the opportunity to keep Shough at bay in the short term (or even the long term). Stranger things have happened. But the fact that the Saints drafted Shough as high as they did, just a few months after hiring Kellen Moore as their coach, indicates that Shough is likely to get a chance to prove what he can do sooner or later. This is very difficult to predict, but the most likely outcome is that Shough will become the starter at the end of the season and start 2026 with the job.Remote possibility: The Saints have the worst team in the league, neither quarterback shows much promise, and New Orleans uses the first pick in the 2026 draft to select a quarterback. With a combined total of $8 million remaining on their contracts, neither Rattler nor Shough represents any kind of obstacle if the Saints decide they want to opt for a new option next year.New York Giants
Current Quarterback: Russell WilsonContract in effect until: 2025
Coach Brian Daboll has repeatedly said that Wilson, 36, will start the season as the Giants’ starting quarterback, despite the team trading back into the first round to select Jaxson Dart in the April draft and also signing Jameis Winston in March. Dart has performed well in two preseason games so far, and as Daboll’s personal choice, he will surely take over as the starter at some point. The question is whether that moment arrives this season, as it always seems to happen with first-round rookie quarterbacks. If so, then when? The Giants have a brutal-looking first-half season schedule and could easily find themselves in a situation similar to the one they faced in 2004, when veteran Kurt Warner started the first nine games before giving way to a first-round rookie named Eli Manning.Most likely scenario: The Giants struggle, Wilson looks as average as he has in the last three seasons, and Dart takes over as the starter in the first half of the season. The question becomes whether the Giants can win enough games to convince ownership to stick with Daboll and allow him to continue developing Dart in 2026. I say he has a chance.Remote possibility: Wilson finds the fountain of youth. Malik Nabers emerges as a top-three wide receiver in the league. Andrew Thomas stays healthy at left tackle. The Giants’ pass rush fuels one of the league’s surprise defenses. And the Giants pull off some early upsets to stay in contention throughout the season. Wilson has a nagging minor injury that leads to Winston starting two games at some point along the way, but Dart stays on the bench all season as the veterans keep the team in the playoff hunt. Dart gets a chance to start in 2026.New York Jets
Current Quarterback: Justin Fields
Contract in effect until: 2026
Fields received $30 million in guarantees in the contract he signed this offseason: $20 million this year and $10 million in 2026. Veteran Tyrod Taylor is the backup, and there isn’t a high draft pick on the roster pushing to play soon, so Fields likely has the season to prove what he can do. Fields is still only 26 years old and is on his third team, so there is certainly a chance he could flourish as a passer while still being one of the most productive runners in the NFL at the quarterback position (19 rushing touchdowns in 50 games). The coaching staff, including head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, is new, and there could be growing pains across the board, so it’s fair to imagine the Jets will remain patient with Fields even if he struggles early on. If the Jets decide to look elsewhere for a quarterback solution next offseason, the guaranteed $10 million in 2026 won’t stop them from doing so.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers
Contract valid until: 2025
Rodgers will turn 42 in December. He managed to play all 17 games for the Jets last season, but statistically he was among the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. He missed basically the entire 2023 season after tearing his left Achilles tendon early in the first game and, frankly, he wasn’t very good in his last year with the Packers in 2022 (41.3 QBR, 26th in the NFL that year). The Steelers keep sneaking into the playoffs, but they also keep losing in the first round. They hope Rodgers can help them break that trend, but, again, he’ll be 42 when the playoffs start, and there are 17 quarterbacks who have won NFL playoff games since Rodgers last won one. Rodgers has come out and said that this is likely his last season in the NFL. The question is whether he can make it to the end. The Steelers have a young offensive line that still has some questions to answer, a thin wide receiver group beyond DK Metcalf, and a running game that could depend on rookie running back Kaleb Johnson. There really isn’t a quarterback on the roster to pressure Rodgers for playing time, even if he struggles, so there are legitimate questions about where coach Mike Tomlin would turn if Rodgers simply doesn’t have it anymore or gets injured.Most likely scenario: Rodgers has another poor to mediocre season, but the Steelers’ defense keeps them in games. They run enough to steal some low-scoring matchups, finish 9-8, and compete for the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff field. Then, Rodgers retires at the end of the season, and the Steelers look to next year’s draft class for the long-term QB they really need.Remote possibility: Rodgers has one more brilliant season in him, and it’s this one. He and Metcalf form a potent connection. The line comes together in front of him. Johnson, along with running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell
