NFL Week 5: Analysis and Predictions for Key Games
NFL Week 5 for the 2025 season presents exciting matchups. From rookie debuts to reunions between former teammates, fans can expect action in every game. Browns rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel will make his NFL debut in London against the Vikings. In addition, former Carolina teammates Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold will face off in the Buccaneers vs. Seahawks matchup. Additionally, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels returns from an injury against the Chargers. In Alofoke Deportes, we provide you with everything you need to know. Our reporters will take you inside the locker rooms, with the best things they heard this week, and the Alofoke Deportes research team offers you key data and analysis for each game. In addition, Seth Walder, statistics analyst, shares a bold prediction for each matchup, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody offers valuable information for your team. We also include Football Power Index (FPI) matchup quality ratings and game projections, as well as final score picks from three analysts: Pamela Maldonado, Moody, and Walder. The week culminates with a “Monday Night Football” game between the Chiefs and the Jaguars.(Match times are on Sunday, unless otherwise noted.)Featured Matches of the Week
Here is the breakdown of the most important matches:Browns (1-3) vs. Vikings (2-2) in London9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Matchup rating: 35.2/100What is said about the Browns: The team relies on rookie Dillon Gabriel to boost their offense, which currently has the second-lowest score in the league (14 points per game). The Browns are expected to use more running plays and short passes to take advantage of Gabriel’s mobility. Jerry Jeudy, Browns wide receiver, commented: “Gabriel knows where to go with the ball. He knows what the coaching staff wants in the offense.”What is said about the Vikings: The Vikings are dealing with an offensive line affected by injuries, which is concerning given the strength of the Browns’ defensive line. They are likely to be without Brian O’Neill (right knee), Ryan Kelly (concussion), and Donovan Jackson (left wrist). Michael Jurgens (hamstring) is also questionable for Sunday’s game. In the worst-case scenario, the Vikings could have to line up their number 3 center, their number 3 left guard, and their number 2 right tackle against a defense that leads the NFL in pass win percentage (56%) and run stop win percentage (37.7%).Key stat: The Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in nine straight games since last season, matching the longest streak in franchise history.Bold Prediction: Mason Graham, Browns defensive end, will record his first sack as a professional. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been sacked on 11.5% of his plays this season.Injuries: Browns | VikingsFantasy Tip: Jordan Mason, Vikings running back, has had 16 or more touches in consecutive games. The good news is that he’s getting a lot of usage. The bad news is that the Vikings’ offensive line has been devastated by injuries and is facing a Browns defensive line that previously stopped the Ravens’ Derrick Henry and the Packers’ Josh Jacobs. Cleveland’s defense has allowed only 2.9 yards per carry and the second-fewest rushing yards to running backs.Betting Prediction: The Vikings have a 14-7 ATS (against the spread) record in their last 21 away/neutral games.Predictions:
Maldonado: Browns 24, Vikings 19 Moody: Vikings 20, Browns 14 Walder: Browns 18, Vikings 15 FPI Prediction: MIN, 62.9% (by an average of 4.8 points)Essential Readings of the Confrontation:Browns bench Flacco, turn to Gabriel as starting QB… Vikings’ plan for week between Dublin and London… Vikings’ O’Neill, Kelly injured against Steelers…Broncos (2-2) vs. Eagles (4-0)1 p.m. ET | CBS | Matchup Rating: 77.8/100What’s being said about the Broncos: Quarterback Bo Nix has had many weekly tests as a starter. This week, Nix’s patience will be tested against an Eagles defense led by coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio, who again has two rookie starters on defense (LB Jihaad Campbell and S Andrew Mukuba), will force Nix to settle for short passes. Before last week’s victory, Nix hadn’t had much success throwing the ball deep to drive the offense. Nix was calmer on Monday night, with better footwork and more patience. That will also be necessary in this game, given that Fangio will give Nix a steady diet of simulated pressure and coverages that change after the snap. Fangio has been a particular challenge for quarterbacks in the red zone.What is said about the Eagles: The Eagles need wide receiver A.J. Brown to perform well. Brown was limited to two receptions for 7 yards on nine targets last week and caused a stir with a cryptic tweet after the game. Brown has been limited to 27 or fewer yards in three of the four games. Surprisingly, the passing game ranks 31st in the NFL. “I see that we are having problems and I am a guy who wants the ball in those moments when we can’t find a way. Give it to me,” Brown said on Wednesday.Key stat: The Broncos’ defense ranks first in QBR (40.5) and sacks (15), as well as second in pressures (62).Bold Prediction: Jonathon Cooper, Broncos defensive end, will record a sack against Lane Johnson, Eagles right tackle. That’s a tough task considering the opposition, but Cooper has the fastest pass rush in the NFL (among those with at least 50 pass rushes), crossing the line of scrimmage in 0.69 seconds, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Predictions:
Maldonado: Eagles 13, Broncos 10 Moody: Eagles 27, Broncos 23 Walder: Broncos 23, Eagles 21 FPI Prediction: PHI, 61.2% (by an average of 4.2 points)Essential readings of the confrontation:Jones’ endless energy catalyst for Broncos’ defense… Inside the champagne problems of the Eagles offense…Texans (1-3) vs. Ravens (1-3)1 p.m. ET | CBS | Matchup Rating: 64.9/100What is said about the Texans: The Texans know they are facing a rival they have struggled against. The Ravens have a 13-2 record against Houston, but coach DeMeco Ryans said, “The past is the past.” Wide receiver Nico Collins acknowledged the 31-2 loss they suffered against Baltimore on Christmas, but said it’s time to “turn the page.”What is said about the Ravens: The Ravens have a 3-0 record against C.J. Stroud, Texans quarterback, holding him to an average of seven points per game. But this is expected to be a very different Baltimore defense on Sunday. The Ravens have six defensive starters dealing with injuries, including Pro Bowl players Kyle Hamilton (groin), Roquan Smith (hamstring), and Marlon Humphrey (calf). With all the new players coming into the defense, Tavius Robinson, outside linebacker, said: “It’s about doing a little more in communication.”Key stat: The Ravens have allowed 35 points in three of four games this season, tied for the most such games in a season in franchise history (1996 and 2021).Bold Prediction: Ravens running back Derrick Henry will record 22 or more rushing attempts, the most this season. The Texans have a fierce pass rush but struggle to stop the run. Lamar Jackson (hamstring) could be out, so the Ravens will want to lean on the running game.Injuries: Texans | Ravens
Fantasy Tip: Woody Marks, Texans running back, capitalized on a favorable matchup against Tennessee last week, finishing with 21 touches and 27.9 fantasy points. It was the first game he out-snapped Nick Chubb. He took advantage, delivering an outstanding performance despite a Texans offensive line that ranks 24th in run block win rate (68.8%). The good news? Marks has another favorable matchup this week against a Ravens defense that has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game to running backs (141.3).Betting forecast: The Texans are the only team that has gone under the total in all four games this season, and the Ravens are the only team that has gone over the total in every game.Predictions:
Maldonado: Ravens 23, Texans 14 Moody: Ravens 23, Texans 20 Walder: Ravens 20, Texans 17 FPI Prediction: BAL, 56.0% (by an average of 2.2 points)Essential Readings of the Confrontation:Emergence of rookie RB Marks gives spark to Texans… How the Ravens got to 1-3 and where they go from here… Texans look to beat Ravens for first time since 2014… What’s wrong with the 1-3 Ravens? Injuries, consistency, more…Raiders (1-3) vs. Colts (3-1)1 p.m. ET | Fox | Matchup Rating: 48.6/100What is said about the Raiders: The offensive line is coming off its best performance of the season, but suffered a big blow in the process. After the unit allowed only three pressures while paving the way for rookie running back Ashton Jeanty to record 138 yards, it lost Kolton Miller, starting left tackle, to a high ankle sprain. Miller’s absence is inopportune as the Colts are ranked eighth in rushing yards allowed per game (96). Coach Pete Carroll is confident that Stone Forsythe, backup offensive tackle, can step up. “He started 14 games… and started on the left side four or five times. So we trust he can get the job done,” Carroll said. “That’s why we went for him.”What’s being said about the Colts: Indianapolis has had one of the most efficient offenses this season, ranking fourth in scoring with 30.8 points per game. But that comes despite their concerning performance in the red zone, where the Colts have only managed to score touchdowns 47.4% of the time (25th in the NFL). They’ve had a series of untimely penalties when in scoring position, and that has led to difficult down and distance situations. “We have to clean that up, and it’s just fundamentals and technique,” said coach Shane Steichen. “We’ll address it through practice this week.”Key stat: Colts rookie Tyler Warren leads all tight ends in receiving yards this season (263), which is the most for the position through the first four games of their career in the Super Bowl era.Bold Prediction: Raiders tight end Brock Bowers will record under 30 receiving yards. Bowers hasn’t had big numbers since injuring his knee in Week 1, and the Colts look like a particularly tough opponent. Only 14% of targets against Indianapolis have gone to tight ends, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.Injuries: Raiders | ColtsFantasy Tip: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts wide receiver, has scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of four games this season, averaging 7.2 targets. He is poised for a big performance against a defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.Betting forecast: The Raiders have a 0-3 ATS record in their last three games.Predictions:
Maldonado: Colts 34, Raiders 28 Moody: Colts 34, Raiders 24 Walder: Colts 26, Raiders 21 FPI Prediction: IND, 63.9% (by an average of 5.3 points)Essential Readings of the Confrontation:Why Booker IV and the Raiders’ D-line will be critical to a win in Indianapolis… Howard abruptly retires, citing ‘family first’Cowboys (1-2-1) vs. Jets (0-4)1 p.m. ET | Fox | Matchup Rating: 39.7/100What is said about the Cowboys: Didn’t the Cowboys come off a 40-point performance at home, playing against a winless team just two weeks ago? They did. And they lost to the Bears in a lackluster performance. Now, coming off a 40-point performance against the Packers, they face the winless Jets. In 2019, the Jets also had an 0-4 record when they faced the Cowboys, and Dallas lost 24-22. The Cowboys cannot repeat what happened with the Bears or what happened in 2019. “We are judged by wins. I would say that consistency has not been there,” said coach Brian Schottenheimer. “What we have to do, we have to learn to finish and to win.”What’s being said about the Jets: The gloves are on, literally. On Thursday, coach Aaron Glenn wore a boxing glove during a ball security drill, trying to punch the ball. The Jets have lost the most fumbles in the league, six, which explains the emphasis on practice. The Jets are an error-prone team: a minus-seven turnover differential and 40 penalties (tied for the seventh-highest). They are looking to avoid their third 0-5 start in the last 30 years.Key stat: The Jets have allowed 25 or more points in each game this season (the only NFL team to do so). Another such game will tie the longest streak of allowing 25 or more points in a season in franchise history.Bold Prediction: Jack Sanborn, Cowboys linebacker, will lead the league in tackles this week. The Jets run at a scandalous pace and currently have the lowest pass rate below expectations in the league, with minus 12%. As they are only slight underdogs to Dallas, they could stick to the running game for 60 minutes, which would induce tons of tackle opportunities for the Cowboys linebackers.Injuries: Cowboys | Jets
Fantasy Tip: Justin Fields, Jets quarterback, finished with 27.1 fantasy points last week and now faces a defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Dallas has also conceded the most rushing attempts and the fifth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
