Deep Dive: Uncertain Future for NFL Quarterbacks in 2026
The 2025 season is shaping up to be crucial for several NFL quarterbacks and their teams. Regardless of how the 2025 preseason and offseason unfold, a large part of the league faces uncertainties, both short-term and long-term, at the most important position in the game. At this time of year, it’s common to analyze what comes after the upcoming season, projecting which teams might have questions about their quarterbacks and which ones might be in a position to answer them. We focus on situations with legitimate questions about how this season might turn out, avoiding those where the contractual situation offers some certainty. An example is the case of Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, where he has $37 million guaranteed in 2026 and $29 million in 2027. Similarly, Dak Prescott in Dallas has $40 million guaranteed for 2026, and restructures have raised “dead money” penalties to prohibitive levels. The Bears, Vikings, and Falcons are still in the early stages with their quarterbacks selected in the first round last year. On the other hand, the Ravens will likely have to address Lamar Jackson’s contract soon, as its impact on the salary cap for 2026 amounts to $74.5 million. Given the previous tense negotiation, there could be some uncertainty in the coming year. However, beyond the increase in the salary cap (which can be solved by extending the contract), there is no reason to think that the Ravens want to do without him soon. Therefore, Baltimore does not enter this list. We have identified 12 situations where the quarterback landscape could change significantly in 2026, presenting two possible scenarios for each team: the most likely outcome and a remote possibility. Let’s start with Arizona.Arizona Cardinals
Current Headline: Kyler MurrayContract Valid Until: 2027, with team option for 2028 Murray, at 28 years old, was healthy all last season and has position players that allow him to succeed. His QBR of 66.6 placed him in the top 10 last season. The main criticism is that he has not been the franchise player that was expected of him as the number 1 pick in 2019. There’s still time to change that, and if the Cardinals have a great season, Murray could be in a good position for 2026. His contract includes about $40 million in salary and guaranteed bonuses for 2026. However, there are no guarantees after 2026, and if Murray has health and/or performance issues, it’s not unreasonable for the Cardinals to look to the future. They could cut Murray after 2026 with minimal impact on “dead money.” If the situation worsened sooner, cutting him next offseason would cost them about $58 million, a manageable amount.Most likely scenario: The Cardinals have a good enough season, even compete for a playoff spot, and keep Murray at least until 2026. If Murray plays well, he could request an extension that offers him more security than his current contract.Remote Scenario: The Arizona season completely collapses, those responsible are fired, and a new regime arrives that decides the best thing for the franchise is to change quarterbacks in the 2026 draft. Murray becomes a candidate to be released or traded, while one of the top quarterback prospects for 2026 arrives in Arizona in the first round.Carolina Panthers
Current Headline: Bryce YoungContract Valid Until: 2026, with team option for 2027 Young had a difficult rookie season and a bad start to his second year, being a backup to Andy Dalton in early 2024 and looking like he could become a historic bust after being the first pick of the 2023 draft. But he regained the starting position when Dalton was injured, and finished the season strongly under the tutelage of first-year head coach Dave Canales. Now, there is hope that Young can continue the progress from last season and become Carolina’s franchise quarterback. His contract is fully guaranteed and pays him a total of about $10.2 million over the next two years. Next May, the Panthers will have to decide whether to exercise his fifth-year option for 2027, which will likely cost around $25 million. It’s a critical year for Young. If he fails and the Panthers don’t exercise the option, they’ll likely look to move on from him as early as next offseason. If he plays well and they do exercise the option, then he has fully guaranteed money in 2027 and probably won’t be going anywhere.Most likely scenario: Young builds on the success he had at the end of the 2024 season, the group around him on offense starts to click, the Panthers exercise the option to give them more time to decide and Carolina continues to develop Young as their QB of the future.Remote Scenario: The Panthers are the surprise team of the 2025 season. Young plays well enough to make his first Pro Bowl, and Carolina makes the playoffs. In this scenario, the Panthers not only exercise the option, but they are also talking about an extension with Young.
Cleveland Browns
Current Headline: Joe FlaccoContract Valid Until: 2025 This is, without a doubt, the most unpredictable quarterback situation in the NFL right now, and possibly in league history. Flacco will start Week 1 for the Browns. He is 40 years old and helped the team reach the playoffs after coming out of what seemed to be his retirement at the end of the 2023 season. He emerged victorious from a four-man quarterback competition in this year’s training camp, largely because the others lost time due to injuries. Kenny Pickett, the former first-round pick of the Steelers whom the Browns traded for in March, might have had the opportunity to beat out Flacco, but he couldn’t play enough after a hamstring injury in July. The Browns drafted Dillon Gabriel in the third round and Shedeur Sanders in the fifth round of this year’s draft, but both struggled to find reps with the first team alongside Flacco and Pickett. By the time Pickett’s injury might have opened the door, Gabriel and Sanders were dealing with health issues of their own.Any of those three could be Flacco’s backup in Week 1 (as could Tyler Huntley, if none of those three are ready), and all three could also start at some point this season if Flacco and/or the team struggles. But let’s not forget that Deshaun Watson is still under contract for two more years with $46 million fully guaranteed per year. It doesn’t seem likely that Watson will play this season while recovering from an Achilles tendon injury, but you never know.
Contents
- A 40-year-old former first-round pick and Super Bowl MVP.
- Another former first-round pick entering his fourth year in the league and already on his third team.
- A small-statured, left-handed third-round rookie who threw an ugly pick-six in last weekend’s preseason opener.
- A fifth-round rookie who is the son of Deion Sanders and, through no real fault of his own, has become one of the most talked-about players in the entire league.
- The most expensive quarterback contract of all time continues to loom over all of this.
Indianapolis Colts
Current Headline: Daniel JonesContract Valid Until: 2025
The Colts selected Anthony Richardson Sr. with the number four pick in 2023. He has played in only 15 of Indy’s 34 games since then, missing time due to injuries and performance. Last season, he completed 47.7% of his passes and threw eight touchdown passes to 12 interceptions. So the Colts signed Jones to compete with Richardson for the starting position this summer. Well, the Colts announced on Tuesday that Jones has won the starting position, and coach Shane Steichen insisted that it wasn’t just for Week 1, but for the entire season. We’ll see. Jones has been the most consistent option during camp, but Richardson clearly offers a higher ceiling due to his great size, speed, and arm strength. The problem for the Colts is that Richardson hasn’t stayed healthy enough for them to see if he can reach his potential. Some seats are getting hot in Indy, and it might be tempting to stick with Jones if he gives the Colts the best chance to win games immediately. But the other side is that the team made a big investment in Richardson and is in a bad situation in the long run if that pick doesn’t work out. Also, Jones hasn’t exactly been the healthiest QB in the league, so there’s no guarantee that Indianapolis won’t have to turn to Richardson at some point.Most likely scenario: Each of these players starts at least six games for the Colts in 2025. Maybe someone else starts one too. The Colts reach the end of the season still undecided about Richardson and face a difficult decision about his fifth-year option next May. But Jones leaves, and Indy looks to the draft or free agency for its next answer. It’s difficult to predict the path, as a bad season for the Colts could lead to changes among decision-makers, as well as among quarterbacks. But the team would need a long-term solution, so Indy would likely prefer to use the draft to find a new QB. If the Colts needed a veteran backup, maybe they could opt for someone like Kirk Cousins, assuming the Falcons let him go this time.Remote scenario: Jones struggles, opening the door for Richardson to reclaim the job, and the light comes on. Sure, he’s still prone to the occasional brutal mistake, but Richardson makes three or four dazzling plays with his arm and legs every week that others simply can’t do. The Colts head into the next offseason excited to exercise Richardson’s fifth-year option and continue working with him now that he’s shown he can stay healthy and play at a high level in the NFL.Las Vegas Raiders
Current Starter: Geno SmithContract Valid Until: 2027 Smith’s contract doesn’t really tie the Raiders to him beyond this season. He has $18.5 million in guaranteed money on their books for 2026, but because the Raiders don’t like to put signing bonuses in their contracts, that’s the extent of the dead money impact if they want to cut him next offseason. If they keep him through 2026, they would pay him a total of $40 million this year and $26.5 million next year. There will be no guarantees on the books for 2027, meaning Las Vegas could do without him after 2026 with no dead money impact. These are all worst-case scenarios, of course. Smith is a good quarterback. He completed 70.4% of his passes last season with the Seahawks, throwing 21 touchdown passes. The new Raiders coach, Pete Carroll, believes in him from their time together in Seattle. So Smith could absolutely play well and get an extension (or at least more money) next offseason. But he also turns 35 in October, and the structure of his contract indicates the Raiders weren’t willing to commit long-term. This feels like a trial season for Smith in Las Vegas. Even if the Raiders found a better option in next year’s draft, keeping Smith as a $26.5 million backup wouldn’t be impossible. It’s practically what Atlanta is doing right now with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr.Most likely scenario: Smith plays well in Chip Kelly’s offense, leaning on rookie running back Ashton Jeanty and second-year tight end Brock Bowers. The Raiders win more games than we’re used to seeing them win because Carroll is now the coach. They don’t make the playoffs, but they stay in the race longer than last season and enter 2026 with good vibes. At 35, Smith still doesn’t get a long-term contract, but Las Vegas adjusts his deal to better fit the market before entering 2026 as a rising team.Remote scenario: Things fall apart for Smith and the Raiders draft high and select their quarterback of the future. Smith stays, either to start until the rookie is ready or as a backup until another team wants to trade for him.Los Angeles Rams
Current Headline: Matthew StaffordContract Valid Until: 2026 Stafford earns $44 million this year (all guaranteed) and then $40 million in 2026 (none of which is guaranteed). He threw for 3,762 yards and 20 touchdowns last season. But he has also been dealing with a back issue in camp, and at 37 years old, Stafford has reached the point in his career where the decision to keep playing is made after each season. Therefore, it is entirely possible that this will be his last season (although he has indicated nothing of the sort). The Rams had a hard time reaching an agreement with him on this year’s contract, even considering trade talks before he agreed to his restructured deal in February. So they know this deal isn’t forever. Their first-round pick swap with the Falcons in this year’s draft leaves them with two first-round picks in 2026, so they are positioned to address the quarterback situation that way if they choose.Most likely scenario: Stafford answers the call for Week 1 and has his usual strong season. The Rams make the playoffs and win a postseason game or two. Heck, maybe they even make it to the Super Bowl and present Stafford with the opportunity to retire in style. The dance repeats itself next offseason when he turns 38 in February, but this time Stafford and the Rams part ways, either because he decides to retire or because they decide it’s time to switch to another option. In this scenario, the Rams will likely use those two first-round picks to address the long-term position. But if they select someone who isn’t ready yet, it’s easy to see them looking for a reclamation project from the Kyle Shanahan tree like Mac Jones or Malik Willis.Remote Scenario: The back continues to be a problem throughout the season, leaving the Rams to put things together around Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett. This doesn’t go well. The Rams don’t make the playoffs, say goodbye to Stafford, and use their two first-round picks in a package to move up and select a quarterback at number 1 overall. This quarterback, under the tutelage of Sean McVay, goes on to win three Super Bowls for the franchise.New Orleans Saints
Current Starter: Spencer Rattler or Tyler ShoughContract Valid Until: Rattler 2027, Shough 2028 The Saints have maintained a competition between Rattler, their 2024 fifth-round pick, and Shough, their 2025 second-round pick. Because Shough was the number 40 selection with a new offensive-minded coach in place, it has been assumed that he would have the advantage. But Rattler had a solid preseason and may have done enough to keep Shough at bay, at least to start the season. Because neither QB was a first-round pick, the Saints don’t have a fifth-year option on either of them. After this year, Rattler will have two years and about $2.3 million left on his contract, and he won’t be eligible for an extension until after the 2026 season. Shough will have three years and about $5.5 million left on his contract after 2025, and he won’t be eligible for an extension until after the 2027 season. Both players will be options for the Saints for the foreseeable future, assuming New Orleans wants them in the mix.Most likely scenario: Rattler certainly has the opportunity to keep Shough at bay in the short term (or even the long term). Stranger things have happened. But the fact that the Saints selected Shough as high as they did, just a few months after hiring Kellen Moore as their coach, indicates that Shough is likely to get a chance to prove what he can do sooner or later. This is very difficult to predict, but the most likely outcome is that Shough becomes the starter at the end of the season and starts 2026 with the job.Remote Scenario: The Saints have the worst team in the league, neither QB shows much promise, and New Orleans uses the first pick in the 2026 draft to select a quarterback. With a total of $8 million remaining on their contracts, neither Rattler nor Shough represents any kind of obstacle if the Saints decide they want to opt for a new option next year.New York Giants
Current Headline: Russell WilsonContract Valid Until: 2025 Coach Brian Daboll has repeatedly said that Wilson, 36, will start the season as the Giants’ starting quarterback, even though the team traded back into the first round to select Jaxson Dart in the April draft and also signed Jameis Winston in March. Dart has performed well in two preseason games so far, and as Daboll’s personal choice, he will surely take over as the starter at some point. The question is whether that point arrives this season, as it always seems to be the case with first-round rookie quarterbacks. If so, then when? The Giants have a brutal-looking first-half season schedule and could easily find themselves in a situation similar to the one they faced in 2004, when veteran Kurt Warner started the first nine games before giving way to a first-round rookie named Eli Manning.Most likely scenario: The Giants struggle, Wilson looks as bad as he has in the last three seasons, and Dart takes over as the starter in the first half of the season. The question is whether the Giants can win enough games to convince the owners to stick with Daboll and allow him to continue developing Dart in 2026. I say he has a chance.Remote Scenario: Wilson finds the fountain of youth. Malik Nabers emerges as a top-three wide receiver in the league. Andrew Thomas stays healthy at left tackle. The Giants’ pass rush fuels one of the league’s top surprise defenses. And the Giants pull off some early upsets to stay in contention all season long. Wilson has a nagging minor injury that leads to Winston starting two games at some point along the way, but Dart stays on the bench all season as the veterans keep the team in the playoff hunt. Dart gets a chance to start in 2026.New York Jets
Current Headline: Justin FieldsContract Valid Until: 2026 Fields earned $30 million in guarantees in the contract he signed this offseason: $20 million this year and $10 million in 2026. Veteran Tyrod Taylor is the backup, and there is no high draft pick youngster on the roster eager to play soon, so Fields likely has the season to prove what he can do. Fields is still only 26 years old and on his third team, so there’s certainly a chance he could blossom as a passer while still being one of the most productive runners in the NFL at the QB position (19 rushing touchdowns in 50 games). The coaching staff, including head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, is new, and there could be growing pains all around, so it’s fair to imagine the Jets will remain patient with Fields even if he struggles early. If the Jets decide to look elsewhere for a QB solution next offseason, the guaranteed $10 million in 2026 won’t stop them from doing so.Most likely scenario: As he has done throughout his career, Fields has his ups and downs, showing the talent that made him the 11th overall pick in the 2021 draft. But he continues to struggle with consistency, especially as a passer. The Jets win six or seven games and don’t really enter the playoff race. They keep Fields for 2026… but bring in someone who represents stronger competition than Taylor. Perhaps this will end up being Kenny Pickett’s next stop. Those first-round picks tend to get a lot of flexibility in this league.
