Cooper Flagg: Future MVP and All-Star in Dallas? NBA Predictions

Cooper Flagg: The Mavericks’ Bright Future According to Alofoke Deportes

The name of Cooper Flagg resonates strongly in the basketball world. Considered the most promising American prospect since LeBron James, Flagg’s arrival at the Dallas Mavericks has generated great anticipation. At Alofoke Deportes, we analyze the future of this young star and the impact he will have on the franchise. The Mavericks’ luck in the lottery draft, after a season full of changes, added even more intrigue to the situation. Flagg is in an unusual position: that of a number 1 draft pick with the potential to contribute to a winning team from his rookie season.

“We are in win-now mode, and he adds to that, but he is also the future of the franchise,” Mavs general manager Nico Harrison said at Flagg’s introductory press conference in July.

Nico Harrison, General Manager of the Mavericks

How much will the Mavericks earn with Flagg in his rookie season and beyond? When will he become an All-Star? Will he be able to aspire to MVP awards and championships? In Alofoke Deportes, a panel of experts analyzes these and other questions.

Trivia question: Who was the last number 1 draft pick to play in the playoffs as a rookie? The answer is a tie: Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons achieved it with the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2017-18 season. “The Process” finally paid off in the playoffs during Simmons’ rookie season, where the most important factor was Joel Embiid, who played more than twice as many games as in his first three years in the NBA combined. Flagg will play for the Mavericks, a franchise that, months after a run to the NBA Finals, traded a potential MVP in his prime, entering the lottery and taking advantage of the 1.8% chance of getting the first pick. That qualifies as unique. Flagg is expected to start immediately, but he is not expected to carry the team as a rookie, surrounded by accomplished veterans, including Anthony Davis, who was the star in the trade for Luka Dončić. The biggest factor in the Mavericks’ playoff position, or lack thereof, could be the impact of another former No. 1 draft pick and future Hall of Famer. When will Kyrie Irving return from his left ACL tear? If it’s this season, can he return to his All-Star form for a team that needs his offensive creation? – Tim MacMahon

How do the Mavericks’ chances look in the 2025-26 season?

• Out of the postseason (11-15): 3.8%
• In the play-in (7-10): 73.1%
• In the playoffs (5-6): 23.1%
• Home advantage in the playoffs (4 or more): 0%

How many series will Flagg, Anthony Davis, and Kyrie Irving win together in Dallas in their careers? Almost two-thirds of our panel believe that Flagg and the Mavs will win two or fewer series with this current core involving him, Davis, and Irving. On the other hand, around 15% of our panel took the upper end of the estimate, saying that Flagg and the core would win at least four playoff series. Between the ACL rehabilitation that Irving suffered in March and the fact that he and Davis are 33 and 32 years old, respectively, the smallest estimate would seem to be based on logic. From an age perspective, veterans are likely to be past their physical prime in the near future. The window for the Mavericks to win is now. But Irving will need time to regain his form once he returns. Similarly, Flagg, despite his talent and skill, is still a rookie, a stage where even the most polished players tend to have some difficulties or hit a wall in their first season. Of course, things won’t be limited to this season. But the sooner the Mavs can get a series win with this core, and the sooner they can enjoy good health to have all three together on the court, the better it will be for their chances of exceeding the panel’s estimate. – Chris HerringWhen will Flagg make his first All-Star appearance?It is unlikely that Flagg will be selected as an All-Star in his rookie season. Blake Griffin is the only rookie All-Star in the last two decades, and he had the benefit of a “rest” year in the NBA, as he missed his first season due to left knee surgery. It is also unclear how next year’s All-Star rosters will be due to format changes. If the league adopts a USA vs. World approach for the game, then Flagg could face even greater competition through the deep pool of American players. But second-year All-Stars are more common, with eight such players in the last eight years: Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, LaMelo Ball, Zion Williamson, Luka Dončić, Trae Young, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. And a large portion of star-level players reach that level in the third year, so our panel is confident that Flagg will fit into that group, at a minimum. – Zach Kram

• 2025-26: 3.8%
• 2026-27: 30.8%
• 2027-28: 57.7%
• 2028-29: 7.7%

How many MVP awards will Flagg win?It is unlikely that Flagg will break the current streak of seven years of foreign-born players winning the NBA MVP. American stars like Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brunson are better positioned to achieve that feat. But it’s also worth noting that sources from the NBA Summer League pointed out a couple of minor shortcomings in Flagg’s game that he will need to address during his early years in the league to reach the level he is projected to achieve. After that, several factors come into play, which are beyond his control, including the overall success of the team, media narratives, and how Flagg’s NBA teammates perform. Flagg possesses the background as the most promising No. 1 American pick since LeBron James and the complete game that will attract the constant attention of MVP voters. His skill on both sides of the court and his aesthetically pleasing game make him a contender to win multiple MVPs over a long career. But several external factors cloud the potential picture. Let’s remember that former Mavericks franchise icon Luka Dončić is still looking for his first MVP in a career we expected to produce multiple. – Michael C. WrightHow many NBA titles will Flagg win?It’s not easy to win a title, even for a number 1 pick. Flagg is the number 1 pick number 41 in the draft lottery era, and only 10 of the first 40 (25%) have won titles. That total could increase as younger number 1 picks mature, but history suggests the odds are against Flagg winning a championship. The only number 1s in this era with more than one title are Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Shaquille O’Neal, and David Robinson. But a couple of factors point in Flagg’s favor more than the average No. 1 pick. He enters the NBA with a better projection than most top prospects, which matters for postseason results: of 15 No. 1 picks in the lottery era with multiple All-NBA appearances in their careers, seven (47%) have won titles, with the possibility of more if Karl-Anthony Towns or Anthony Edwards ever lift the trophy. The Mavericks also have much more talent than the rebuilding teams that usually pick first in the draft. Most number 1 picks need help from other number 1 picks to win titles: Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and Dwight Howard won while playing with James, for example, and David Robinson and Glenn Robinson won alongside Duncan. That could be the most vital context for Flagg to begin his career: he’ll soon share the court with Davis and Irving, two previous No. 1 picks who have turned that draft position into a ring. – KramHow many teams will Flagg play for in his career?Dirk Nowitzki demonstrates that there is a precedent for a Mavericks star to stay in Dallas for their entire career. The best player in franchise history spent 21 seasons in Dallas, the most for any player with a single team in NBA history. The Mavericks should be especially motivated to retain Flagg for as long as possible, given the dissatisfaction of the fans after the trade of Dončić, who seemed to be Nowitzki’s natural successor. However, predicting that any player in the modern NBA will stay on one team for their entire career seems foolish. Among players who debuted in the 21st century, only four of the top 50 scorers have never changed teams: Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, and Nikola Jokic. It’s still possible that a couple of those single-franchise players will move before their careers end. Recent history overwhelmingly suggests that Flagg will move on at some point. – Kram

Where will Flagg land in the NBA ranking in 2025?

It’s rare to see a rookie even enter the Top 100, but Flagg comes to the NBA capable of having a broad enough impact on games to earn a spot. The question is less about whether he will justify inclusion and more about how optimistic our panel of experts will ultimately be about where to rank him.

Personally, I tend to be conservative when estimating the impact of the rookie season. In the draft process, projecting a prospect’s eventual career peak is one thing, but the initial learning curve is a complicated variable and each player acclimates differently. Flagg is different from most prospects: not only is he used to being young for his level, but he proved that he is ready for top-level competition at any age at Duke. Although I wouldn’t expect Dallas to burden him with many creation tasks, nor that Flagg would be fully prepared to handle that immediately, his defensive instincts, passing, and tenacity will benefit him as he adapts on a team that plans to be competitive.

Without much thought, I’d put Flagg in the 76-100 range. Our panel seems more optimistic at this stage. The fact that we’re having this conversation already speaks to his quality and bright future. – Jeremy Woo