NASCAR: Favorites, Surprises, and Title Contenders in the In-Season Tournament

NASCAR Cup Series: Season Tournament Kicks Off

Starting next weekend at the Quaker State 400 in Atlanta, the NASCAR Cup Series joins the trend of other sports leagues, such as European soccer and the NBA, by launching its own in-season tournament. This new format seeks to add excitement to the regular season calendar. The classification for the inaugural “In-Season Challenge” was based on the results of three races (Michigan, Mexico City, and Pocono), using a combination of the best positions and points earned. Now, 32 drivers will compete in a direct elimination format, facing each other head-to-head until one is crowned champion and takes home a $1 million prize. This guide will help you understand the format, favorites, dark horses, and the results of the standings. In addition, an updated version of the Cup Series playoff prediction model has been used to simulate the tournament 2,000 times and estimate the chances of each driver advancing.

Favorites

Let’s take a closer look at the competitor landscape. Despite being seeded in 18th place after poor results in two of the three qualifying races, William Byron has been the best driver of the season in the Cup Series, leading the standings and the average Driver Rating, making him the biggest title contender. The two-time defending Daytona 500 champion has a favorable matchup in the first round against Ryan Preece. In the second round, he could face less consistent drivers on road courses like Chase Briscoe, and in the third round, against a less prominent driver on ovals like Chris Buescher, if things get to that point. Byron is expected to be the favorite at each stage until the final.

Other drivers with good chances, with a 5% or more probability, are Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Briscoe, Buescher and Larson. Hamlin and Elliott have the best opportunities to reach the Sweet 16, with favorable matchups in the first round against the Dillon brothers.

Elliott also has a good chance of reaching the Elite 8, as he would face John Hunter Nemechek or Josh Berry in the second round.

From left to right, Chase Elliott and William Byron are two Cup drivers to watch closely as NASCAR launches its first season tournament.

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

The “Cinderellas”

If we consider Byron as a “Cinderella” due to his position in the ranking, he has the best chances of reaching the final. However, it is strange to call the number 1 ranked driver an underdog. Similarly, Logano and Tyler Reddick have the next best odds. Reddick was in the final last year; neither would surprise with a good performance, although Reddick would have to face Larson and then Blaney.

Could we consider Ty Gibbs an underdog? He is number 23 in the overall standings… but he is also the sixth seed in the tournament and his performance has improved recently. Favorable matchups against Justin Haley and Michael McDowell could take Gibbs to the quarterfinals.

If we limit ourselves to the drivers who are in 15th place or lower in the standings and the tournament, four drivers have a 10% or more chance of winning at least two rounds: Austin Cindric, A.J. Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski. All are known for being experts on speed or road circuits, and those tracks make up each of the first three races of the tournament. Busch and Keselowski, long-time rivals, can’t have a good performance, as they face each other in the first round, but the winner will probably cross paths with Hamlin on a road course, while Cindric and Allmendinger could face each other in Sonoma in the quarterfinals.

The “Spoiler”

Sometimes, it’s not about winning the title, but about being an obstacle for the favorites. This could be the case for Keselowski, Reddick, Erik Jones, and Carson Hocevar, each with at least a 44% chance of defeating better-ranked drivers and those with a better position in the 2025 Cup Series standings. We already mentioned the Keselowski-Busch battle, but Reddick has a great opportunity to end Larson’s race immediately. There is a nearly 21% chance that Jones or Hocevar will beat Ross Chastain or Blaney, respectively. Logano could give Bubba Wallace problems in the second round if he manages to beat Alex Bowman in the first round, as Bubba is not a good road course racer. McDowell could beat Gibbs in the second round. Briscoe has the potential to turn Byron from a favorite to a “nobody” if he has a good performance on the streets of Chicago.

The Difficult Duels

Preece could be the perfect example of a driver with bad luck. He has had an outstanding season, but finished in 15th place, while Byron’s 27th place at Pocono put him in 18th place, directly in Preece’s path. Bowman also fits that mold: he is seeded in eighth place, but unfortunately for him, that means facing Logano in a place where Joey won in last year’s playoffs. If Bowman wins, he would have a favorable matchup against Wallace in the second round, but first he has to get through the first round. Zane Smith is seeded in 14th place, but would be the “underdog” against Cindric, particularly in Atlanta. Nemechek got Berry in the first round, a qualifying anomaly that doesn’t reflect his performance throughout the season. Chastain, Blaney, and Larson might not have it so easy. Speed circuits are a clear weakness in Chastain’s performance, placing him on shaky ground against Jones. Blaney and Larson will face Hocevar and Reddick, respectively. In this format, even the most important names are not guaranteed more than a single race in contention before the tournament changes everything. With its chaotic classification and track types, as well as the inherent unpredictability of knockout races, this new In-Season Challenge promises to be as wild and experimental as anything NASCAR has attempted in years.