MLB 2025 Draft Analysis: Predictions for the First Round
The 2025 MLB draft will begin on Sunday, and it’s time to analyze how the first round could unfold. Following the dismissal of general manager Mike Rizzo, the Washington Nationals face a crucial decision with the first pick.
This year, without a clear prospect at the top, Oklahoma high school player Ethan Holliday (son of former MLB player Matt Holliday) stands out, as do several college left-handed pitchers such as Kade Anderson (LSU), Liam Doyle (Tennessee), and Jamie Arnold (Florida State).
What direction will the Nationals take, and how will the Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners respond with picks 2 and 3?
This is my penultimate mock draft of the 2025 cycle, with an updated version 3.1 that will be published hours before the start of the first round on Sunday.
Following the dismissal of general manager Mike Rizzo, there is much uncertainty in this selection. Speculation is that Anderson could be the choice. There is a 55% chance it will be Anderson, a 35% chance for Ethan Holliday, and a 10% chance for Eli Willits or others.
2. Los Angeles Angels Liam Doyle, LZ, Tennessee.
Doyle has been linked to this position for a while, and with good reason. He could accept a contract below market value and is a strong candidate to be the first player in this class to reach the Major Leagues. Given his dominant fastball, he could strike out Major League hitters right now, and the Angels could be aggressive and let him do just that, and then see if they can turn him into a long-term starter.
Kade Anderson appears to be the Angels’ primary target, and would likely be the pick here if he weren’t No. 1. In this scenario, I think this decision will come down to Doyle, Jamie Arnold, or a further price reduction for Ike Irish. I give Doyle a slight edge.
The Angels appreciate Daniel Pierce, but they probably can’t get him. Keep an eye on Mason Pike and Sam Horn as initial targets along with basically any college arm with reliever risk in later selections: Brian Curley, Cade Obermueller, Chase Shores, Tanner Franklin, A.J. Russell, Lucas Kelly, and Mason Morris.Description: MLB draft profile of Liam Doyle. Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee’s Liam Doyle one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
The trend seems to be changing with the Mariners now willing to choose Hernandez here, despite the irregular results of the preparation rights in the draft, after surveying a wide group of players.
Jamie Arnold would be the runner-up and I think Kade Anderson is the best player on their list, so those three are the main targets. Ike Irish, Aiva Arquette, Liam Doyle, and JoJo Parker seem to be the secondary options, I think in that order.
Keep an eye on Lucas Kelly, Josh Flores, and Jake Munroe in subsequent selections.
It has long been rumored, perhaps since the night of the draft lottery at the MLB winter meetings, that Holliday would not get past this selection, both because of the team’s preference and his father Matt’s history in Colorado.
If Holliday isn’t number 1 for the Nationals, this is his most likely landing spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got the biggest bonus in this draft and the biggest bonus in this draft era to achieve this result for the Rockies.
If Holliday is the overall number 1, Kade Anderson and Jamie Arnold are believed to be the other top options here, likely in that order. If all three players go before the Rockies, I believe it would be Kyson Witherspoon or possibly Aiva Arquette as the selection.Description: MLB draft profile of Ethan Holliday. Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
5. St. Louis Cardinals Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK).
I think the Cardinals’ list looks pretty similar to mine, with Kade Anderson and Ethan Holliday in the top two spots, then Willits third. I think he’ll be the pick here in this scenario, but the other top options would be a coin flip with Jamie Arnold, or a slight cut with Ike Irish.
It appears the Pirates will choose Seth Hernandez here, if not number 3 for the Mariners. As a backup plan, I believe Pittsburgh is leaning towards a college hitter. Arquette has been mentioned here for months, with Ike Irish as an alternative, and pitcher Jamie Arnold is another target if he gets here.
7. Miami Marlins JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS).
I believe Miami is looking to sign Eli Willits and has Parker as a backup option with Jamie Arnold as a target if he gets away. I’ll lean towards Parker over Arnold here, but I think, in this scenario, those two players will go in these two selections in some order. Billy Carlson, Ike Irish, and Andrew Fischer seem to be the other backup options.
Keep an eye on Mason Pike, Will Rhine, and Hunter Allen in subsequent selections.
8. Toronto Blue Jays Jamie Arnold, LZ, Florida State.
Arnold entered the year as the top prospect on my list, but he was hit a little harder than expected, so the opinions of the teams vary a little more than one might expect. As I said before, I think JoJo Parker and Arnold will go back-to-back in this scenario, but Arnold has a real chance to go at number 2 or number 3. Ike Irish and Kyson Witherspoon are secondary options.Description: MLB draft profile of Jamie Arnold. Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Florida State’s Jamie Arnold one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
9. Cincinnati Reds Ike Irish, RF, Auburn.
Irish is going to go this way, but I admit I’m not sure who the Reds are going with here in case Seth Hernandez and Liam Doyle are unavailable.
Steele Hall, Billy Carlson, and Kyson Witherspoon are the other top options connected here, while Josh Hammond is a longer shot and JoJo Parker is connected but also off the list in this scenario.
Stay tuned for Evan Hankins in a later selection.
10. Chicago White Sox Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA).
Carlson is in play to varying degrees in most selections from number 5 onwards, with a minimum around number 12 and critical points from 8 to 10, so this is more or less what you should expect.
The White Sox may be highest on JoJo Parker and his brother Jacob, but I don’t think they can get JoJo for their selection. Steele Hall, Josh Hammond, and Gavin Fien are also tied here in a very heavy mix of prep hitters, with prep lefty Kruz Schoolcraft as a long-term overpay possibility.
Keep an eye on Gavin Turley and Mason Ligenza in future selections.
11. Athletes Kyson Witherspoon, PD, Oklahoma.
Like the Reds, I have some names linked to the Athletics’ selection, but this is the point where the draft is much harder to predict. I think the Athletics are leaning towards pitching, and Witherspoon’s minimum is right around here, so he represents good value.
I believe it’s likely to be a college player, and Brendan Summerhill, Wehiwa Aloy, and Gavin Fien (the Athletics selected his older brother Dylan last year) have been mentioned here all spring.
Keep an eye on Jase Mitchell, Micah Bucknam, and Tanner Franklin in later selections.
I think this is where Billy Carlson definitely stops if he slides. Hall seems to be the next target, with Gavin Fien also mentioned, so it seems likely to be a prep position player.
Keep an eye on Talon Haley, Mason Pike, Josh Owens, and Micah Bucknam in subsequent selections.
13. San Francisco Giants Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona.
I think this selection feels like a left-handed hitter from the college ranks (like last year’s selection, James Tibbs). Whether Summerhill, this spot is the minimum for Ike Irish and a possible high point for Andrew Fischer or Charles Davalan.
Keep an eye out for Will Rhine and Taitn Gray in subsequent selections.
14. Tampa Bay Rays Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL).
The Rays still have two additional selections besides the three assigned on the first day, even after trading one for reliever Bryan Baker on Thursday. I think their main targets here are Billy Carlson and Steele Hall, but both are unavailable in this scenario, so the Rays may try another Xavier Isaac strategy: take a guy they really like who probably won’t be available for their next pick and isn’t expected to go as high, then save some money and distribute it to other picks.
I have the Rays linked to several position players preparing for later selections and it seems that this strategy would give them at least one more of those than they would get if they played this selection directly, perhaps with Josh Hammond or prospects with similar names Gavin Fien or Gavin Kilen, three other players in whom the Rays have interest.
Keep an eye out for Dean Moss, Matthew Fisher, Taitn Gray, Sean Gamble, Landon Harmon, Brady Ebel, and Brisen Tweedy in subsequent selections.
15. Boston Red Sox Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA).
Fien has a good chance to land here, as has been rumored for a long time. I think he’s underrated due to an uneven spring after being one of the best hitters on the summer circuit. Xavier Neyens and Gavin Kilen (whom the Red Sox almost signed out of high school) have also been connected here.
16. Minnesota Twins Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee.
Now we are safely in the realm of making informed guesses based on a team’s history and what other teams believe they will do. Minnesota likes this type of player, a college infielder with medium tools and medium build with a solid performance record (Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Kyle DeBarge, Tanner Schobel, Kaelen Culpepper in the first three rounds of the last three drafts alone).
I believe this is where Gage Wood comes into play, a bit lower than some fans may expect, due to some concerns about his shoulder issue earlier this spring and a possible long-term relief adjustment. Caden Bodine, Tyler Bremner, and Marek Houston are also mentioned here.
17. Chicago Cubs Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC).
The Cubs lean towards exit velocity/athleticism when it comes to high school students and Hammond is one of the best examples in the class. This is right in the middle of their range, along with Xavier Neyens, a similar left-handed version of Hammond who is also connected to the Cubs. Arkansas teammates Wehiwa Aloy and Gage Wood are also mentioned here along with Tyler Bremner.
Keep an eye out for Cooper Flemming, Josh Flores, and Jake Munroe in subsequent selections.
Rumors are intensifying that Bodine will be the pick here (if available) to then set up some prep selections after. Josh Hammond, Tate Southisene, and Slater de Brun are the main targets of that group in this selection and the next.
19. Baltimore Orioles Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas.
After Thursday’s trade for another compensatory pick, giving Baltimore three in total, this pick has a bit more likelihood of being an under-market-value college player, as the Orioles will likely collect high school players on the list unless they can float a top talent to this pick.
Aloy adapts to the Orioles’ trends and is a good value here. I think they are targeting Jaden Fauske, Dax Kilby, Tate Southisene, and Xavier Neyens in those compensatory selections and then Mason Ligenza, Will Rhine, and Ethan Rogers after that.
20. Milwaukee Brewers Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest.
I have the Brew Crew linked to three shortstops here: Daniel Pierce, Coy James, and Houston. James looks like he’ll go in the compensatory round and would be the first-round curve selection, as Milwaukee pulled last year when choosing Braylon Payne. This is more or less in the middle of Pierce and Houston’s ranges.
Houston is primarily linked to power prospects over contact with prominent athletic tests here such as Xavier Neyens, Tate Southisene, and Wehiwa Aloy. Charles Davalan and Slater de Brun are two players who don’t fit into that group, which also includes the Astros.
Keep an eye out for Jase Mitchell, Matt Ferrara, Matt Miura, C.J. Hughes, Josh Flores, and Tyler Finkbeiner in subsequent selections.
22. Atlanta Braves Tyler Bremner, PD, UC Santa Barbara.
Bremner is in the mix for some teams picking before here, but I think this is his likely stopping point. Gage Wood, Marek Houston, Tate Southisene, Josh Hammond, and Daniel Pierce are also mentioned here.
Keep an eye out for Ty Peeples, Jaiden LoRe, and Micah Bucknam in subsequent selections.
23. Kansas City Royals Gage Wood, PD, Arkansas.
This would be the minimum for Josh Hammond if he made it that far and it looks like it will be a good landing spot for Wood, likely paired with a high school player in the next Kansas City selection at number 28.
24. Detroit Tigers Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA).
I believe Detroit takes a high school prospect with at least one, if not both, of their first two picks, here and at No. 34 overall. Coy James could also be a surprise pick here, as could Milwaukee’s first pick, but I think it’s more likely that one of them takes James in the compensatory round.
Jaden Fauske (left in this scenario), Aaron Watson, Dax Kilby, Kayson Cunningham, Slater de Brun, Tate Southisene, and Cooper Flemming are linked to Detroit’s first two picks from the high school side. Andrew Fischer, Anthony Eyanson, and J.B. Middleton are college players linked to these two picks.
25. San Diego Padres Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA).
Parents love to aspire to the positive and are linked to names that fit this year, with Young as the most extreme version. He has an 80-grade power projection and a frame adjustment, but big questions about his contact ability.
Kruz Schoolcraft, Kayson Cunningham, Dax Kilby, Josh Owens, and Slater de Brun are my best guess as to the order in which they have their other top high school targets ranked. Anthony Eyanson, A.J. Russell, and Ethan Conrad are college players still available here that the Padres have some interest in picking.
Keep an eye on Will Rhine, Angel Laya, Dixon Williams, and Josh Tate in subsequent selections.
26. Philadelphia Phillies Matthew Fisher, PD, Evansville Memorial HS (IN).
This would be another curveball, but the Phillies likely won’t be able to bring Fisher to their second selection and would prepare for a move above market value in their next selections, similar to what they did last year. Andrew Fischer is also mentioned here. Alec Blair (a top-100 basketball recruit in the country) and Sean Gamble are among the prep position players they could target to move down the list.
The Guardians are difficult to read here and could go below market value with a college player, such as Kane Kepley, Devin Taylor, or Andrew Fischer, to set up a spending spree on the roster with their additional picks. Aaron Watson and Dax Kilby are other preparation targets who will not make it to their next picks.
Keep an eye on Miguel Sime Jr., Jase Mitchell, Cade Crossland, and Luke Hill in later selections.
28. Kansas City Royals Aaron Watson, PD, Trinity Christian HS (FL).
Watson is one of the many preparation arms linked to the Royals, such as Matthew Fisher (if he’s still on the list), and Watson should go in the next selections if he’s not the selection here. Anthony Eyanson is also a hot name here. Tate Southisene, Angel Cervantes, and Malachi Witherspoon are also connected to the Royals.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks Slater of Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR).
Tate Southisene (picked at No. 27 in this scenario), from Brun and Kayson Cunningham are the main targets here, particularly if the Diamondbacks choose a college player with their first pick, and Arizona should get one of them here.
It will be difficult to sign, but keep an eye on Ryan Mitchell in a later selection, or possibly even here if his list explodes.
30. Baltimore Orioles Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA).
Neyens is a threat to go in the top twenty or early twenties, but the Orioles’ bonus capacity should allow them to take him in this selection.
31. Baltimore Orioles Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee.
Fischer could go much higher, but should find a home right around here if still on the list.
32. Milwaukee Brewers Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX).
This is a great value for the Brewers, which is what they do more often than almost any other team. There are a few places above here, like Detroit, Philadelphia, Arizona, and San Diego, that Cunningham could go to, with a minimum here, so Milwaukee might need to go above market value to get Cunningham here.
Jaden Fauske (left in this scenario), Coy James, Charles Davalan, Devin Taylor, and Cooper Flemming are mentioned with the Brewers in this selection. The Brewers are linked to several players on the roster: Blaine Bullard, Luke Hill, Brady Ebel, Remo Indomenico, C.J. Hughes, Tyler Finkbeiner, and Brisen Tweedy.
33. Boston Red Sox Marcus Phillips, PD, Tennessee.
Dax Kilby, Michael Oliveto, and Xavier Neyens could also land here.
Keep an eye out for Kaleb Wing and Peter Mershon in subsequent selections.
34. Detroit Tigers Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (NC).
I believe this is the most likely landing spot for James. Dax Kilby, Cooper Flemming, Anthony Eyanson, and J.B. Middleton are all that remain from the list mentioned in his previous selection.
Keep an eye out for Jake Munroe, Caleb Leys, Jaiden LoRe, and Ethan Rogers in subsequent selections.
35. Seattle Mariners Zach Root, LZ, Arkansas.
Root is in play in a lot of places in the 20s and 30s and probably goes for 40 if it lasts beyond this selection. Max Belyeu and Patrick Forbes are also mentioned here. If the Mariners want to pick three pitchers with their first three picks, there’s a chance Malachi Witherspoon will still be in the second round.
36. Minnesota Twins Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana.
Taylor’s minimum seems to be the two Mets selections after this, so this is good value for Minnesota. Michael Oliveto and Charles Davalan are other targets still on the list, while Xavier Neyens and Jaden Fauske left in this scenario.
Be aware of a possible overpayment in a subsequent selection at Ty Peeples.
I believe that most of the potential targets in the compensatory and second rounds were part of the Orioles’ motivation for adding this selection from the Rays. Kilby’s minimum is in a couple of selections, so this is another good value.
Stay tuned for Landyn Vidourek in a later selection.
38. New York Mets Patrick Forbes, PD, Louisville.
Forbes has interest throughout the 20s and 30s and probably goes at the end of the compensatory round. Devin Taylor, Zach Root, and Marcus Phillips are unavailable, but they also fit here. J.B. Middleton appears to be the runner-up.
Keep an eye on Tanner Franklin, Josh Flores, and Wyatt Vincent in subsequent selections.
39. New York Yankees J.B. Middleton, PD, Southern Miss.
This would be the minimum for Andrew Fischer and probably Dax Kilby. Max Belyeu, Michael Oliveto, and A.J. Russell are some other targets that are possibilities here, as are the college guys who go right after this in Anthony Eyanson, Charles Davalan, and Malachi Witherspoon.
Keep an eye on Ethan Rogers, Matt Ferrara, and Sam Horn in subsequent selections.
40. Los Angeles Dodgers Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson.
There’s a rumor that if both are on the list, the Dodgers will take Jack Bauer and Quentin Young in these two selections, literally the two players with the highest ceiling in the draft. For the sake of entertainment, I hope that happens.
Because Young was chosen earlier in this projection (as were Los Angeles targets Coy James, Marcus Phillips, Aaron Watson, and J.B. Middleton), Cannarella fits and has been mentioned here much of the spring. Max Belyeu and Charles Davalan will go soon if they are not taken here. Kruz Schoolcraft is another high-potential prep player the Dodgers are on.
Keep an eye on James Ellwanger, Shane Sdao, and Mason Ligenza as targets in subsequent selections.
41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LZ, Sunset HS (OR).
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Anthony Eyanson, PD, LSU.
43. Miami Marlins: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas.
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest.
