The MLB Trade Market: A Detailed Analysis for Alofoke Deportes
The deadline for MLB changes this year is shaping up to be a complex period. With so many teams involved in the playoff race – only eight are more than five games out of a wild card spot – activity could be moderate if contending teams hold firm until the end of July. However, one point is clear: the Arizona Diamondbacks are the epicenter of this market. They have the ability to give it more excitement if they decide to trade their players heading to free agency, a group that includes the powerful third baseman Eugenio Suárez, starting pitchers Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, first baseman with a .300 average Josh Naylor, and the rejuvenated closer Shelby Miller.Although there is always the desire of the management and the board to go all out and not dismantle a locker room that has worked hard to get into the playoff fight, not to mention the fans who have supported the team, that is not always viable.
The sweep last weekend at the hands of the Miami Marlins was devastating, losing three games and reducing their playoff chances by approximately 11%, falling below 20%. In the final analysis of Arizona, several factors influence: Corbin Burnes will no longer play this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and with Gallen struggling to maintain his effectiveness at 5.75, the rotation has not been competitive. A run to the postseason seems unlikely, and a journey through October, even more so. As July begins, we present our annual list of a player that each team should trade (or release) by this July 31st deadline. And yes, we have the Diamondbacks saying goodbye to several of their upcoming free agents. Let’s start with them.Arizona Diamondbacks: Trade Eugenio Suárez
On a deadline that lacks a standout superstar – let’s remember that the biggest names from the last two deadlines, Shohei Ohtani in 2023 and Garrett Crochet in 2024, weren’t traded anyway – Suarez could be the best player to move. He’s having a great power season, batting .254/.324/.564 with 26 home runs, recently hitting his 300th home run to cement an underrated career. His strikeout rate is the lowest since 2018, as he’s made a concerted effort to swing a bit earlier in the count. It’s paid off. The Diamondbacks also have top prospect Jordan Lawlar ready in the minors to take over at third base. He’s a natural shortstop, but Geraldo Perdomo has secured that position and Lawlar’s bat should still work at third base.Detroit Tigers/Seattle Mariners: Trade for Suarez
There are several contenders who need an upgrade at third base, including the Cubs and the Reds, but the Tigers and the Mariners could have the advantage in terms of prospect depth to make the deal. The Tigers will likely make multiple moves, undoubtedly adding an arm to the bullpen at a minimum, and although the lineup has shown surprising depth, adding Suárez to bat between lefties Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene seems like the perfect fit, while allowing Zach McKinstry to return to his utility role. Suárez would also cover some of the possible regression of players like McKinstry, Javier Báez, Gleyber Torres, and Spencer Torkelson, who have performed much better than last season. The Mariners have been playing with Miles Mastrobuoni and rookie Ben Williamson at third base. They provide an occasional single, but they have combined for only two home runs in more than 300 at-bats. With Cal Raleigh being responsible for a third of the Mariners’ home runs – it’s true that he has hit many – Suárez would add a much-needed cleanup hitter to bat behind Raleigh. Oh, and it would rectify the big mistake that baseball operations president Jerry Dipoto made when he traded Suárez to Arizona after the 2023 season in a cost-cutting move.St. Louis Cardinals: Trade for Merrill Kelly
Kelly is the type of pitcher who used to be called a bulldog. He fights, he’s tough, and he makes the most of an arsenal that features a pedestrian 92 mph fastball. Every team would love to have him in their rotation and, for what it’s worth, he was excellent in the 2023 postseason for Arizona, where he recorded an ERA of 2.25 in four starts. He had a nine-run collapse in his second start of 2025, but since then he’s pitching better than ever with an ERA of 2.83 and more strikeouts than innings pitched. The Cardinals continue to exceed expectations, and Kelly’s $7 million contract would be especially attractive to them, or to any team looking for a starter at an affordable price, for that matter. As for the need: The Cardinals rank in the middle of the pack in the majors in rotation effectiveness, but Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, and Miles Mikolas average less than 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings. (St. Louis ranks 26th in rotation strikeout rate). Kelly would give them a better strikeout pitcher to go along with Sonny Gray to lead a potential playoff rotation.Texas Rangers: Trade for Josh Naylor
The Rangers have struggled to score runs (3.77 per game, almost two runs less per game than in 2023) and, although they are looking up at the wild card leaders, they don’t want to give up on a season in which they have Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Tyler Mahle dominating on the mound (although Mahle is out with shoulder fatigue). The Rangers rank 22nd in the majors in OPS at first base and last in designated hitter, so even considering the strange low-scoring environment of this season at Globe Life Field, Naylor is a solution for either position, especially considering that their designated hitters this past week included light traveler Sam Haggerty and the catcher who wasn’t playing.Miami Marlins: Trade Sandy Alcantara
Alcantara is signed for $17.3 million in 2026 with a team option of $21 million for 2027, so although his season stats may seem terrifying (4-8, 6.98 ERA), the 2022 Cy Young winner still fits as a long-term option for a business partner. More importantly, the results were at least better in June with a 4.34 ERA and .689 OPS allowed, although there are still concerns about his low swing-and-miss rate despite a fastball that averages 97.3 mph. The Marlins don’t have to trade him, of course, and given the poor state of their rotation (only the Rockies have a worse ERA), it can be argued that trading him will only open a hole they’ll have to fill for next season anyway. They just went 6-0 on their road trip, and if they play well over the next month, it becomes less likely they’ll trade Alcantara, with the view that he’ll be a necessary part of a potentially better team in 2026. However, it all comes down to prospect harvesting, and Alcantara’s recent performance could be enough to close a deal.Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros: Trade for Alcantara
The Cubs seem like the perfect fit for multiple reasons. Their rotations rank 22nd in effectiveness and 17th in innings, so they don’t get great production or enough long outings from their starters. The bullpen has held up so far with the second-best effectiveness in the majors, but acquiring Alcantara would add depth behind Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, the team’s only reliable starters. A question the Cubs will have to evaluate: Alcantara has an above-average ground ball rate, so, will having Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner behind him help? That seems logical, but the Marlins have allowed a slightly lower average on ground balls this season than the Cubs, so it’s probably an insignificant difference. The Cubs have the best overall defense thanks to their outfield, but Alcantara hasn’t been pitching with bad luck (in fact, his actual batting average allowed of .266 is lower than his expected average of .280). Astros general manager Dana Brown just spoke about the search for a left-handed bat to help his right-handed heavy lineup, but the Astros have a history of making big pitching moves like this at the deadline: Justin Verlander in 2017, Zack Greinke in 2019, and Verlander again in 2023. The 1-2 combo of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez is as good as it gets, but the rotation currently features the unknown rookies Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter, who have been pleasant surprises and hitting the strike zone (a combined 68 strikeouts and seven walks in 71⅓ innings), but could be over their heads at the moment. With Valdez heading to free agency, Alcantara would also provide insurance if they lose Valdez in the offseason.Kansas City Royals: Trade Seth Lugo
Things are starting to look a bit desperate in Kansas City. The Royals are only 4 1/2 games out of the third wild card, but they have six teams to climb, Jac Caglianone hasn’t managed to ignite the offense, and they went 8-17 in June. They’ll need a big bat from Bobby Witt Jr. just to get close to the trade deadline. The emergence of Kris Bubic as a probable All-Star pitcher plus rookie Noah Cameron gives the Royals some rotation depth to trade, and Lugo remains an extremely attractive trade option, as he’s signed at least through next year (he has a player option for 2027) and has a 2.74 ERA in 2025. Aside from Caglianone, the Royals’ system lacks impact hitters in the upper leagues. Trading Lugo gives them the opportunity to help their offense for the future.Los Angeles Dodgers/Toronto Blue Jays: Trade for Lugo
It’s hard to believe the Dodgers might need another starting pitcher after all the money they’ve invested in their rotation, but we still don’t know the full season outlook for Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki, although Glasnow has at least begun a rehab assignment in Triple-A. The only thing we do know is that the Dodgers have a system loaded with hitting prospects that could make them the most capable team to make this trade, if they want to. The Blue Jays are currently in the second wild card spot, despite a struggling rotation that ranks 26th in ERA. They just got Max Scherzer back, but there’s no way to know what he’ll bring, plus Chris Bassitt and Scherzer will be free agents, so they’ll be looking for pitching help in the offseason anyway. Lugo’s contract is a more attractive option than betting on a high-level free agent, even if it costs a team some good prospects.Cleveland Guardians: Trade Emmanuel Clase
The Guardians were 31-26 at the end of May, despite being outscored by 18 runs, but June was a difficult month, with a 9-16 record and a run differential of minus 29, which left them below .500. Clase is signed through 2028, with his salary reaching a maximum of 10 million dollars in the last two years, making him a bargain for an elite closer. Is he still elite? He’s allowing an average of .289 after hitters batted just .154 against him in 2024, and while his location was certainly a bit off in April, he also had a lot of bad luck with BABIP. His ground ball rate is down significantly from where it used to be (up to 68% in 2021, down to 45% this season), but he’s still only allowed one home run. Cleveland’s bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season, but it’s still deep, and Cade Smith has been their best reliever, so he’s ready to take over the closer role. Given the possible reward for Clase, and hedging against the possibility that he might be in decline, this could be the best opportunity for the Guardians to get a big haul for him.Philadelphia Phillies: Trading for Class
When I turned on the Phillies-Braves game on Saturday, the score was 1-1 in the seventh inning with the bases loaded when Jordan Romano of Philadelphia pitched to Sean Murphy of Atlanta. The broadcast showed a graphic showing that the Braves were the only team without a grand slam this season. First pitch: Boom. The Phillies need bullpen help and they need to win now. This has all the markings of a Dave Dombrowski deal.Baltimore Orioles: Trade Ryan O’Hearn
The Orioles went 16-11 in June and are playing a little better, so there might be some hope… OK, sorry, Orioles fans. They are still seven games out of the last wild card spot with playoff odds hovering below 4%. A playoff run is unlikely given their rotation, and with as many as 11 impending free agents after this season, if you count the three players with club options, general manager Mike Elias could make a series of deals to add prospect depth to the organization. It’s not the way the Orioles hoped the season would go, but this is the rare case where giving up on the year makes sense. O’Hearn is probably the best of the group. They got O’Hearn from the Royals and got three excellent seasons out of him as a designated hitter/1B/RF substitute, and with so many teams hungry for offense, his ability to hit right-handers (.312/.398/.518) makes him one of the best bats available.San Francisco Giants: Trade for O’Hearn
You could find half a dozen teams where O’Hearn fits, but let’s go with the Giants, who are last in the majors in OPS at first base, with an average below .200 and only five home runs. They are also in the bottom third of the majors in OPS against right-handed pitching, so adding O’Hearn on top of Rafael Devers would give San Francisco a second left-handed hitter in the middle of the order. Baseball operations president Buster Posey has already shown his cards with the Devers deal: he’s fully involved, so there’s no time to stop now.
