Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber: MLB Contract Projections

Free Agent Projections Analysis: Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber

Alofoke Deportes presents a detailed analysis of the projections of the most sought-after free agents of recent seasons. After examining the expectations surrounding figures like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, attention is now focused on two players with a promising future: Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber. Although this winter, a record-breaking free agent like Ohtani or Soto is not expected, two players stand out for different reasons. Both share the same first name: Kyle. Kyle Tucker has had a solid season, with a WAR of 4.7. His offensive numbers are slightly below his previous record year, but the underlying metrics remain close to his best seasons. However, he had a difficult period in August, which led him to miss some games due to a calf strain. Despite this, he remained in the top 20 in the league in WAR. On the other hand, Schwarber’s season is more straightforward. The Phillies slugger has achieved personal records in most offensive categories, including 50 home runs, 123 RBIs, and a WAR of 4.5. The only negative aspects for his future as a free agent are his age (33 years old in March) and his limited participation in the field in the last two seasons. Designated hitters over 30 years old usually don’t have good results in free agency, but none had hit 50 home runs in their contract year, which puts Schwarber in uncharted territory. Below, we will analyze the salary projections for both players, according to a survey of scouts, executives, and agents.

Kyle Tucker: Projections and Possible Destinations

Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images

How much could Tucker earn?

Below are the 20 responses from our panel, grouped by total dollar range:

• Less than $350 million (6): 11 years/$308 million, 9 years/$315 million (2x), 8 years/$320 million, 9 years/$340 million, 9 years/$342 million
• $350-$399 million (4): 8 years/$352 million, 10 years/$375 million, 12 years/$375 million, 11 years/$380 million
• $400-499 million (8): 10 years/$400 million, 11 years/$400 million, 11 years/$418 million, 10 years/$420 million (2x), 10 years/$425 million, 12 years/$425 million, 10 years/$450 million
• At least $500 million (2): 10 years/$500 million, 12 years/$550 million

The average of the 20 projections is 10.1 years and $391.5 million, with an average annual value (AAV) of $38.8 million. The median projection of these agreements is $390 million. Who are the closest comparisons? Tucker’s outstanding and consistent performance (five consecutive seasons with a WAR of 4-5 and five consecutive seasons with a performance 30% above the league average) makes it difficult to find a recent comparison in free agency. He is currently 10th in MLB in WAR over the last five seasons. In the last four free agent classes, position players with contracts exceeding $150 million don’t fit well as a comparison. The Soto ($765 million) and Ohtani ($700 million) deals are not relevant. Shortstops like Willy Adames, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager are positionally different, although Seager is not a bad secondary comparison. Freddie Freeman was three years older than Tucker when he became a free agent, and Aaron Judge was two years older, in addition to coming off a season with 11.1 WAR and 62 home runs, so they don’t seem relevant either. Kris Bryant was already in decline when he reached free agency, while Brandon Nimmo was on the rise, but with years of durability issues. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s extension with the Toronto Blue Jays for $500 million in April is the comparison most mentioned among respondents. Vlad’s extension begins next season for his age-27 season, while Tucker will be 29. It’s only two years, but they are two very important years for projecting value in a long-term contract. Tucker has more value in base running and position, but he’s still a corner outfielder. Guerrero’s extension was signed outside of a competitive bidding situation, with the perception that the Jays paid a bit more than the market would have given to secure their franchise player after finishing last in the American League East last season, and with key player Bo Bichette still unsigned.

Who are Tucker’s possible suitors?

There was little confidence among those surveyed (none of whom work for the Cubs) about the possibility of the Cubs winning a bidding war for Tucker. The Los Angeles Dodgers, long-time Tucker fans, were mentioned by several industry experts. We did not ask about a projected team, so the frequent mention of the Dodgers seems to indicate the feeling in the industry that they are the team to beat.

In short, the industry estimates that Tucker could get a contract similar to Guerrero’s, with some projections close to $300 million, although most place it around $400 million.

Kyle Schwarber: Projections and Possible Destinations

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

How much could Schwarber earn? Here are the 20 panel responses, grouped by total dollar ranges:

• Less than $100 million (2): 4 years/$72 million, 3 years/$90 million
• $100-$125 million (11): 3 years/$100 million, 4 years/$100 million, 4 years/$110 million (2x), 4 years/$112 million (3x), 5 years/$118 million, 4 years/$120 million (2x), 3 years/$125 million
• $126-180 million (5): 4 years/$140 million, 6 years/$150 million, 4 years/$160 million, 5 years/$160 million, 4 years/$180 million
• At least $200 million (2): 6 years.$200 million, 7 years/$245 million

The average of the 20 projections is 4.3 years, $131.8 million, for an average annual value (AAV) of $30.7 million. The median projection of these agreements is $119 million. Who are the closest comparisons? Some comparisons arise for Schwarber:

• J.D. Martinez: Five years, $110 million entering his age 30 season in 2018 (45 HRs, 4.3 WAR in his contract year).
• Paul Goldschmidt: Five years, $130 million entering his age 32 season in 2020 (33 HRs, 4.6 WAR in his contract year).
• Freeman: Six years, $162 million entering his age 32 season in 2022 (31 HRs, 4.7 WAR in his contract year).

According to the comparisons, Schwarber should get one year less than the shortest contract mentioned above due to his age (therefore, four years) and land in the average annual value (AAV) area of $25-30 million, which is exactly where the respondents ended up. Who are Schwarber’s possible suitors? Contrary to the Tucker/Cubs situation, many of those surveyed believe there is a high probability that the Phillies will act quickly after the season ends to bring Schwarber back. Either way, he appears to be a target for a contending team looking to bolster the middle of their lineup in the short term, and hopefully not be a drag on their balance sheet at the end of the contract. All these teams would be aware of the luxury tax numbers, and a rival agent brought up an interesting detail he expects to see: Schwarber will get that fifth year, for a little more money, to reduce the AAV. Several teams should be interested in that low nine-figure area, as the predictions suggest, but there could be a landing spot closer to $150 million with enough competition in the bidding. That said, some teams simply can’t stomach that kind of money for an older DH.