Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: Who will win the MLB MVP? Analysis and betting

Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh: The American League MVP Race Intensifies

After a 2024 season where he was recognized as the Most Valuable Player (MVP) of the American League, Aaron Judge, outfielder for the New York Yankees, began the 2025 season as the leading candidate to repeat the award. Judge has backed up his position with an outstanding batting average of .355, in addition to recording the second-highest number of home runs (35) and RBIs (81) before the All-Star break. However, the extraordinary campaign of Cal Raleigh, catcher for the Seattle Mariners, has shortened the distance in the betting. Judge is currently listed at -600 to win the American League MVP in 2025, a significant improvement from his initial +300 at the start of the season, according to betting lines. On the other hand, Raleigh now has the second-best odds at +325, a notable reduction from his initial price of 100-1. Judge’s consistency, which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May, made him an unattractive option for bettors. BetMGM reported that only 5.2% of bettors backed him for the award, being the fifth most popular option in the market. Raleigh, on the other hand, has experienced a gradual rise in the odds, allowing bettors to take advantage of his higher odds for a while. Eric Biggio, baseball betting leader at Caesars Sportsbook, mentioned that many sportsbook customers bet on the Mariners catcher at 90-1 in early May. Judge’s excellence, in fact, helped keep Raleigh at a high odds, as Judge’s extremely low price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM indicates that Raleigh has 33% of the total bets for the American League MVP, representing the sportsbook’s largest liability in the market. His relaxed attitude, the victory in the Home Run Derby, and his fun nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative.

“As much as I like it, as much as I enjoy cheering for the ‘Big Dumper’, it’s a big responsibility for us,” Biggio said.

Eric Biggio

The home run market is also intriguing: Although Raleigh (38) has a three-home run lead over Judge, the Yankees hitter is still the favorite to hit the most home runs this season, with odds of -140 versus Raleigh’s +130. Shohei Ohtani, of the Los Angeles Dodgers, has odds of +800 with his 32 home runs. Ohtani is also the clear favorite for the National League MVP with -700, but Pete Crow-Armstrong, outfielder for the Chicago Cubs, is putting some pressure on him with +750. BetMGM reports Crow-Armstrong as their biggest liability in that market.

World Series Favorites

Before the 2025 season, the Dodgers were surprisingly +160 to win the National League championship and +275 to win the World Series, according to betting lines, the lowest odds to win the MLB championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not much has changed, with the Dodgers now favored at +140 to win the National League title and +240 for the World Series.

However, things haven’t gone as expected in the American League. After starting the season at +1200 to win the American League and +3000 for the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now have the best record in baseball, leading their championship odds to +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for the second best. The “underdog” story resonated with the betting public, who began to back the Tigers at the first signs that they could make noise not only in the American League Central Division, but in the entire league. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-biggest liability, second only to the San Francisco Giants.

“We had higher prices, and the public detected it early, that they are a legitimate team,” he said. “So some important prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are real.”

Eric Biggio

“They have become a popular future pick, now our second most bet team to win the World Series by total bets and the third most popular by the amount bet,” said Adam Landeka, vice president of strategy and growth for ESPN BET sports betting, via email. “Given their relatively higher price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be fans of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.” While Detroit’s concern will be training its relatively inexperienced core for a postseason run, Los Angeles’ will be staying healthy. Bookmakers comment that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several major injuries is a testament to their depth, which keeps them as long-term favorites.

Young Launchers

The baseball world’s eyes were on Milwaukee for an afternoon game on June 25th. It was the first direct matchup between Paul Skenes, ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Jacob Misiorowski, rookie of the Milwaukee Brewers, two of the brightest stars of the future of pitching in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them. Before his MLB debut on June 12, Misiorowski was at +2500 to win the National League Rookie of the Year. That day he went to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the favorite at -120 after surpassing Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is at -220 to take home the award. The bookmakers were able to keep up with his rapid rise, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that wasn’t hit, he could have had good value there. Actually, we’re in really good shape with him.”

Johnny Avello

Skenes, for his part, is having another notable season after earning Rookie of the Year honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a Pirates team could be preventing him from being the favorite for the National League Cy Young. He currently shows odds of -105 on ESPN BET, behind Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, with -130. To a large extent, it’s a two-man race: Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is the next closest in the odds at +2000, but the sportsbooks aren’t too worried about the liability given the low price of Skenes and Wheeler throughout the season.

“We’ve seen a comparable action in both, but as things stand, Skenes would be a better outcome for us,” Landeka said.

Adam Landeka