Horner Out of Red Bull: Will Verstappen Stay? The Big F1 Gamble

Surprising Departure of Christian Horner from Red Bull: End of an Era in Formula 1

The unexpected dismissal of Christian Horner as team principal of Red Bull Racing has shaken the world of Formula 1. A fact that, although surprising, was foreseeable given the internal situation of the team. The news represents an unprecedented moment in the team’s history. Horner, who led Red Bull since its debut in 2005, has been the architect of their 124 race victories, six constructors’ championships, and eight drivers’ championships. His legacy as team principal is undeniable. Horner’s departure took even Red Bull employees by surprise, who learned of the news shortly before it was made public. Despite his apparent calm and tranquility, his position in the team seemed like a time bomb, whose explosion took everyone by surprise.

There’s no bigger news in F1!

David Croft

The decision could be interpreted as Red Bull’s bet to ensure Max Verstappen’s permanence, given the rumors of his possible transfer to Mercedes. This measure seeks to convince the four-time world champion that the team will do everything possible for him to continue adding titles. However, this does not guarantee that Verstappen will stay beyond next year. In 2024, Horner overcame a personal scandal. Despite an independent investigation that exonerated him of any inappropriate behavior, the shadow of the controversy affected the team, deepening internal divisions, especially between Horner and Jos Verstappen, Max’s father. Before the start of last season, Jos Verstappen warned about the danger of Red Bull disintegrating under Horner’s leadership. Sources close to the team indicated that both Jos and Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko were concerned about Horner’s growing power after the death of Dietrich Mateschitz, founder of the energy drink brand. This concern also extended to Mark Mateschitz, the founder’s son, and Oliver Mintzlaff, an executive at Red Bull GmbH.

Until mid-2024, Red Bull had an outstanding performance, consolidating its dominance on the track. These successes strengthened Horner’s position, who argued he was the key to the team’s success. It was assumed that, as long as he had the support of Chalerm Yoovidhya, Red Bull’s majority shareholder, his position would be secure.

However, at last year’s Miami Grand Prix, things began to get complicated, both on and off the track.

First, the departure of the legendary F1 designer Adrian Newey occurred, who is now working at Aston Martin. Sporting director Jonathan Wheatley joined the Audi project, and head of strategy Will Courtenay was hired by McLaren. Sources close to the team indicate that attempts to fill these vacancies have not been entirely successful. Red Bull’s slowness in allowing Courtenay’s departure suggests that the team is struggling to cope with the loss of talent in key areas. Horner insisted that the team had enough personnel to overcome the crisis. However, the most obvious problems appeared on the track. Sergio Pérez, a close ally of Horner, struggled to match Verstappen’s pace, and was replaced at the end of the 2024 season. Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda failed to improve the car’s performance.

Of Red Bull’s 210 championship points this season, Verstappen has scored 203. The inability of teammates to perform with increasingly worse cars has confirmed Verstappen’s insistence that they are not pleasant to drive. Only the talent of the Dutch driver has achieved positive results on the track. Verstappen has defended Pérez, Lawson, and now Tsunoda, showing frustration with the machinery at his disposal.

Verstappen has always been cautious when talking about Horner’s position. Recently, a topic directly related to the decline in success on the track has been raised more frequently. Sources confirmed that Verstappen has a clause in his contract that allows him to leave the team if he is below third place in the drivers’ championship after the Hungarian Grand Prix on August 3rd. Currently, he is 18 points ahead of George Russell, who is in fourth place. Verstappen declined to answer questions about his future during a busy briefing last week at Silverstone. A move to Mercedes in 2026 always seemed unlikely, but the possibility of Verstappen leaving generated a big impact. In a press conference last Friday, Horner said that Red Bull should prepare for life without its star driver, whether next year, 2027 or beyond. It was the first time he acknowledged the possibility of the Dutchman leaving. Horner’s statement suggests that Verstappen will remain at Red Bull next year, but it remains to be seen if this will convince the four-time world champion to commit his future to the team. Red Bull expects to be off the pace in 2026, the year its own engine, built in conjunction with Ford, will debut. However, the argument for keeping Verstappen until the end of his contract, which ends in 2028, could be simpler now that the team has eliminated what many considered the biggest internal conflict factor: Horner himself.

What’s next for Horner?

In the blink of an eye, Horner went from being one of the most influential and important figures in F1 to being unemployed. Although he has an impressive track record, influence in Formula 1 is impossible without a relevant role elsewhere. Given his contract, which is believed to extend until 2030, it could be a while before he wields his power elsewhere. Two of Horner’s close relationships will likely fuel speculation about possible future destinations. He is known to have a good relationship with John Elkann, Ferrari’s chairman, and is also close to Alpine executive Flavio Briatore. Earlier this year, Horner dismissed reports that he had been contacted by Elkann, while Ferrari also denied suggestions that it was about to get rid of team boss, Frédéric Vasseur. It remains to be seen whether Lewis Hamilton would want to work with Horner after the controversial title fight between Red Bull and Mercedes in 2021. Alpine could be an unexpected candidate. A source suggested to ESPN that a possible option for Horner would be an external position, perhaps as a shareholder. Horner’s future in F1 will be a fascinating topic in the coming months and years.