F1 2025: Failed Predictions and Key Hits in the Season

Analysis of the Formula 1 2025 Season Predictions

As is customary in the world of sports, Formula 1 thrives on bold analyses and predictions. At the beginning of the 2025 season, at Alofoke Deportes, we ventured to predict the course of the competition, a year that promised excitement and uncertainty. Now, with the August break as a turning point, it’s time to evaluate how accurate our predictions were.

Is Verstappen Out of Red Bull?

If Red Bull’s problems in 2024 were to extend to 2025, or if doubts arose about the partnership with Ford, other teams would see an opportunity… Max Verstappen could consider a change of scenery, even following in the footsteps of Lewis Hamilton and signing for one or two more seasons later on. We will be watching.

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Our prediction about Verstappen’s departure from Red Bull did not come true, but the direction was correct. Verstappen’s future dominated much of the period before the summer break, for the reasons we explained: Toto Wolff, head of Mercedes, sought the opportunity to snatch the Dutchman from Red Bull. However, the possibility for 2026 was never as likely as some suggested, and Verstappen’s position in the championship before the break ruled it out completely; a clause in his contract would have allowed him to leave the team if he had been fourth, not third, in the drivers’ championship at this point in the season. This prediction can be considered closed. The idea of Verstappen’s retirement will quickly resurface next season if Red Bull is significantly off the pace in the early stages of the new regulatory cycle.

Leclerc with Two Victories Before Hamilton?

The idea that Hamilton has lost his pace in recent years is unfounded. He should win many races for Ferrari, but a slow start compared to Charles Leclerc seems like a fair prediction, given where both drivers are in their first year as teammates. This prediction, however, depends on how the sprint races are classified. Hamilton won one in China at the beginning of the season, but neither he nor Leclerc have achieved victory in a Grand Prix this year. Ferrari started the season with a dream pairing and came close to winning the constructors’ championship in 2024. Expectations were very high: many thought Ferrari would be competitive. But it hasn’t been. The idea was that Leclerc wouldn’t need as much adaptation time as Hamilton and could take advantage of it with a winning car. Only half of that has turned out to be true: Leclerc has been, comfortably, the better of the two drivers and reached the summer break in top form, apart from Shanghai and some sporadic weekends. Hamilton, on the other hand, sounded like a man who lacked self-confidence and hinted at broader frustrations with Ferrari. It seems difficult for Ferrari to win several races before the end of the year. If they did, we would still stand by this prediction; Leclerc seems much more prepared to capitalize if Ferrari finds itself competing with the McLarens after the break.

Is Piastri Leading the Championship?

If the calm and serene Oscar Piastri can solve his inconsistency problem, expect to see the exciting Australian highlight his credentials as a championship-pedigree driver.

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We were right! Piastri arrived at the break nine points ahead of Lando Norris and has proven to be a champion in the making for most of the year. Was it such a bold prediction? It was, if you remember the feeling at the beginning of the year. Norris was the favorite of the bookmakers and seemed to be the easy bet to fight against Verstappen and Red Bull for the title. Norris’ 2024 season had been a successful one, with three victories, including a masterful drive at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix that secured McLaren the constructors’ championship.

Piastri’s reputation was simple: the incredibly talented Australian had struggled with consistency in his first two years. That hasn’t been the case in 2025. His old qualifying problems have disappeared and Piastri has been phenomenal for most of the year. Conversely, the mistakes that overshadowed Norris last year have followed him into this season. At one point, it seemed that the British driver was crumbling under the pressure of having a title-worthy car. To Norris’ credit, a good stretch before the break has shortened the gap, but in a direct choice between the two McLaren teammates, it’s still difficult not to choose Piastri still at the top when the season ends in December.

Will Alonso be on the Podium with Aston Martin?

We don’t expect to see Aston Martin rise drastically in the order, but the leading group has come together, and opportunities could arise if the British green team can take a step forward. If that happens, Fernando Alonso is exactly the man you want in the cockpit.

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Obviously, the smartest prediction in March would have been to say that Nico Hülkenberg would take Sauber back to the podium, right? Alonso hasn’t returned, in fact, he didn’t even have a point to his name until the Spanish Grand Prix in June. Alonso has seemed more like his old self since then, but Aston Martin has stalled in the competitive fight of the midfield all season, far from the four leading teams. A major change after the break seems unlikely. With former Ferrari technical director Enrico Cardile finally working alongside dynamic designer Adrian Newey at the team’s new factory in Silverstone, the dream technical team of owner Lawrence Stroll is in place. All eyes seem to be on 2026.

Would a Rookie Win a Race?

If the Mercedes can put its car in the necessary place to win, Kimi Antonelli seems like the kind of special talent who could make a name for himself immediately. Then there’s someone who, officially, is a rookie: Liam Lawson from Red Bull.

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The premise behind this prediction changed drastically after only two races: Lawson was relegated by Red Bull to the junior team. The reason for this prediction had been simple: Lawson and Antonelli had cars that, as felt in March, could well be in contention for victory with some early advances in car development. Opportunities would surely have presented themselves. Lawson never had the chance to perform, although Verstappen seems to be the only driver who can do something remotely competitive with that Red Bull. As for Mercedes, Antonelli has shown incredible flashes and seems like he could be a superstar in the future. Mercedes’ only victory of the year was for George Russell in Canada, where Antonelli achieved his first podium in Formula 1. It was a historic moment, although his form has declined since then. With Lawson in Racing Bulls, Antonelli is the only hope that this prediction will come true at the end of the year. If Mercedes is in a position to win a race before then, it would be difficult to imagine that it would not be Russell who would capitalize again, however.