New Zealand close to the final of the World Test Cricket Championship
The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies has positioned them favorably to reach the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s.
New Zealand was very close to reaching the top spot in the Test ranking: they were only 0.086 points behind Australia.
New Zealand’s victory in Wellington generated some confusion in the cricket community. Initially, the ICC’s predictive tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table for several hours after the match.
However, the ICC clarified through a statement that Australia remains in first place with 116,461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116,375.
Australia could consolidate its lead if it wins the home series against India. On the other hand, the two victories over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points, from four series in the current cycle ending March 31, 2021.
If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series.
This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final.
In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to obtain points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the qualification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played.
Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%. If they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70.
Australia also has a three-Test series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins its two Test matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.
When India completes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played.
Each of their remaining Test victories will be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. Five wins or four wins and three draws will put them ahead of New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could consolidate its lead in the number 1 position or concede ground to New Zealand.
