India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple match; it’s a high-stakes series with a lot at stake. Besides prestige, both teams are looking to secure their place in the World Test Championship final in June. New Zealand, after its 2-0 victory against the West Indies, rises to third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to strive to stay above.

India’s Outlook

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points with a 75% percentage. They still have two series pending in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. To surpass New Zealand, India needs to exceed that 70%. To achieve this, India must score at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can happen if they win five matches or if they win four and draw three.

Given their outstanding home record, India has a good chance of getting full points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four matches against Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses to Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches, as a win grants 30 points and a draw, 10.

Situation in Australia

Australia, with three series played, accumulates 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. They need to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage higher than 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. The series against South Africa, of three tests, offers 40 points per victory and 13 per draw.

Despite the issues with injuries, Australia remains in a favorable position thanks to the accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 victory against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.