India vs Australia: WTC keys. How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: Key to the World Test Championship Final

The series between Australia and India is a highlight in the cricket world, with momentous implications for qualification to the upcoming World Test Championship (WTC) final in June. The performance of both teams in this series and in India’s subsequent series against England is crucial. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, which resulted in a 2-0 series, positions them in third place in the championship table. If New Zealand repeats this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India

Games played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75 India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, and their points percentage to 70. This means that India’s goal is to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s exceptional home record, they will have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England; this will mean they will need at least one win or three draws in the four tests in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia

Games played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22

Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70 if the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points available for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position thanks to the points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.