India vs Australia: WTC Keys and the Road to the Final

Australia vs India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India, by itself, is a major event. However, with the World Test Championship (WTC) final on the horizon in June, both teams have a lot at stake in terms of their rankings. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory over the West Indies puts them in third place in the Championship table. If they repeat that performance against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

The Ranking Landscape for India

India has played 4 series, with 360 points and a points percentage of 75%. They have two series left in the current cycle, against Australia and England, both of four test matches. This means that the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their score will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. India needs to surpass that 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s excellent home record, they will have a good opportunity to get all the points against England. This will mean they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach that 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points, considering that a win awards 30 and a draw 10, is by winning all four matches.

The Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a points percentage of 82.22%. They need to surpass 420 points to have a points percentage greater than 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three test matches, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a solid position, thanks to the accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will push them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.