India vs Australia: WTC Key, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India is a major sporting event. Besides being a competition in itself, it has an even greater significance, as both teams seek to secure their place in the final of the World Test Championship in June. New Zealand’s recent triumph over the West Indies (2-0) has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If they achieve the same result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India’s Perspectives

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points with a percentage of 75%. They have two series left in the current cycle: against Australia and England, both with four tests. The point allocation is the same for both series: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand scores all possible points against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This means that India needs to exceed that 70% to secure a place above New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s excellent home record, they have a good opportunity to get the most points against England. This implies that they will need at least one win or three draws in the four matches against Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. The only way to achieve this, considering that a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, is to win all four matches.

Situation of Australia

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points with a percentage of 82.22%. Currently, Australia needs to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. The series against South Africa, which is expected to be three tests, will award 40 points for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury concerns, Australia remains in a favorable position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.