India vs Australia: WTC Equations. How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Key Clash with Crucial Perspectives for the World Test Championship

The clash between Australia and India transcends its category as an individual series, establishing itself as an event of great importance. With the World Test Championship final on the horizon in June, both squads are vying for much more than honor, as their position in the overall standings is at stake. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory over the West Indies propels them to third place in the table. If they manage to repeat that feat against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

The Outlook for India

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points and a percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all possible points against Pakistan, their score will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This means that India will have to exceed that 70% to secure their position above New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Considering India’s outstanding home record, they will have good opportunities to obtain all the points against England. This implies that they will need at least one victory or three draws in the four matches in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches.

The Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, accumulating 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, as long as the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Since the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three matches, 40 points will be awarded for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia is in a favorable position thanks to the points already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.