India vs Australia: Equations for the WTC Final; What does India need?

Australia vs India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India, in itself, is a highlight event. However, with the World Test Cricket Championship final on the horizon in June, the series takes on even greater importance for both teams. New Zealand’s recent 2-0 victory against the West Indies places them in third place in the championship table. If they repeat that result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India: Analysis of Classification Possibilities

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which means the point allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This means that India’s goal is to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s strong home record, they will have a good opportunity to get the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four matches against Australia to reach the target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia: Current Situation and Outlook

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to achieve a percentage above 70% if the series against South Africa takes place. In case it is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given the expectation that the series against South Africa will be three matches, 40 points will be offered for a win and 13 for a draw. Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a solid position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.