India Needs 5 Wins for the WTC: Analysis of the Equations

Australia vs India: A Crucial Duel with Perspectives for the Test World Championship

The series between Australia and India, by itself, is already a major event. However, with the World Test Championship (WTC) final in June, the importance of this clash is amplified for both teams. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory against the West Indies puts them in third place in the championship table. If they achieve the same result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India: Rating Outlook

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and against England. Both are four-match series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, and their points percentage to 70%. This means India’s goal is to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s exceptional home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach the target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia: Current Situation

Australia has played three series, with 296 points and a points percentage of 82.22%. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to have a points percentage greater than 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Since the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points available for a win and 13 for a draw. Despite injury concerns, Australia is in a solid position thanks to the points already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.