India vs Australia: Key to the WTC Final, How Many Wins Are Needed?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India is a major sporting event in its own right. However, on this occasion, the importance is amplified due to the proximity of the World Test Championship final in June. Both teams have a lot at stake, not only in terms of immediate results, but also in their overall position in the standings. New Zealand, after its 2-0 victory against the West Indies, has moved up to third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to maintain their position.

Classification Perspectives for India

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This means that India’s goal is to exceed that 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points, out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s impressive home record, they will have a good opportunity to get the maximum points against England. This will mean they need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach that target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will grant 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Situation of Australia

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points, with a points percentage of 82.22%. Australia needs to score over 420 points to have a points percentage greater than 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite multiple injury concerns, Australia is in a solid position, thanks to the points accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.