India vs Australia: WTC Keys, How many wins does India need?

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Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting event. Besides being a high-caliber series, it has crucial significance in the context of the upcoming World Test Championship (WTC) in June.

New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, which resulted in a score of 2-0, positions them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this performance against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will need to strive to stay above them in the rankings.

Analysis of India’s Aspirations

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points and a points percentage of 75%. They have two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and against England. Both series consist of four tests, which implies the same points allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target to be surpassed for India, in order to secure their position above New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120 points) and drawing three (30 points).

India vs Australia: WTC Keys, How many wins does India need?
Given India’s impressive home record, they will have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach the target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches.

Australia’s Championship Situation

Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to achieve a points percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three tests, there will be 40 points available per victory and 13 per draw.
India vs Australia: WTC Keys, How many wins does India need?
Despite multiple injury concerns, Australia is in a solid position, thanks to the points accumulated so far. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.
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