New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand was very close to reaching the number 1 position in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington.
Although the news generated some confusion, the ICC predictor initially showed New Zealand at the top. However, the ICC clarified that Australia maintains first place with 116.461 points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could consolidate its leadership if it wins the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies gave them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series. This would leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final at Lord’s. Due to the global situation, the ICC had to modify the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points disputed. Australia currently leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will maintain the lead with 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a three-Test series scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two Test matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played. India, currently with 360 points from four series played, will have played six series or 720 points at the end of their series against Australia and England. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. Five wins or four wins and three draws will leave them ahead of New Zealand. Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
