Vinícius Jr: From the Shadow of the Ballon d’Or to the Real Madrid Bench

Vinícius’s Unfulfilled Year: From Elusive Glory to an Uncertain Future

The year 2024 promised to be the year of Vinícius Júnior. After conquering LaLiga and the UEFA Champions League with Real Madrid, logic pointed to the Ballon d’Or as the next great conquest. However, fate had other plans for the Brazilian star. The fans, and many experts like former Manchester United player Rio Ferdinand, took for granted the most prestigious individual recognition in football. But the 2024 Ballon d’Or was not for Vinícius. The award went to Rodri, midfielder for Manchester City and the Spanish national team. Real Madrid, disappointed, reacted by boycotting the ceremony and breaking ties with France Football, organizers of the event. The disappointment was palpable in the Spanish capital, where second place is not enough.

I’ll do whatever it takes 10 times. They are not ready.

Vinícius Júnior

Vinícius’ message was clear: if not this year, it will be next. A declaration of intent that reflected his ambition and determination. But 2025 hasn’t been his year either. Real Madrid closed last season without major titles, suffering four defeats against Barcelona. In the FIFA Club World Cup, under the direction of Xabi Alonso, Vinícius scored a goal in six games. In addition, Alonso has not always shown confidence in the player, relegating him to the bench on several occasions. Despite everything, Vinícius, 25, is expected to start in the next Clásico against Barcelona at the Santiago Bernabéu. However, he will no longer arrive at the match as the undisputed star of the team, that role now belongs to Kylian Mbappé, who has raised his level of play and has been fundamental to the team. This change of roles has raised doubts about Vinícius’ future at Real Madrid. In the 365 days prior to the Ballon d’Or, the Brazilian had proven to be one of the best players in the world. In that period, he scored 18 goals in 30 LaLiga matches, with an average of 0.6 goals per game. Only three center forwards surpassed that figure. In addition to his goals, Vinícius provided eight assists and created 49 goalscoring opportunities, demonstrating his versatility in attack. His dribbling ability was also highlighted, leading the league with 227 successful dribbles, surpassing players like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. In the Champions League, Vinícius also shone, with 11 goal contributions (eight goals and three assists). In terms of play on the wing, no one came close to his 95 dribbles. On April 30, 2024, he scored two goals in the 2-2 draw against Bayern Munich in the semi-finals. A month later, he scored the goal that secured the title in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley. Six days before the Ballon d’Or ceremony, he starred in an electrifying performance with a hat-trick against Dortmund, at the Bernabéu.

In the last year, the situation has changed. Vinícius’s goal rate has decreased to 0.4 per match, and eleven other LaLiga players have scored more goals. Although he has registered eight assists, his performance has been irregular, with a six-month period without assists in the league. This decrease in his performance is attributed to a less brilliant season for Real Madrid. Vinícius still created 59 goal opportunities for his teammates, but the team lost points in several crucial matches. In the Champions League, Vinícius reacted with four goals in three matches, but his influence was limited in the final stages. For this year’s Ballon d’Or, Ousmane Dembélé was the winner, with Vinícius in 16th place. The arrival of Xabi Alonso to the bench has meant a reevaluation of Vinícius’s role in the team. Alonso has left Vinícius out of the starting eleven in some matches, and although the situation has improved, the player has not always been a starter. In the last month, Vinícius’ performance has improved, with outstanding performances against Levante and Villarreal. However, uncertainty surrounds his long-term future.

Negotiations to renew his contract, which expires in June 2027, are stalled. A possible agreement of 20 million euros annually plus 10 million in variables was discussed, but the club’s formal offer did not include bonuses. Therefore, Vinícius’ representatives did not see the need to accept a three-year extension. Several club sources have expressed their dissatisfaction with the way the negotiations have been handled, and it would not be a surprise if the player decided to run down his contract.

The Saudi Pro League’s interest has not materialized in 2025, and Vinícius’s environment has minimized that possibility. Recent history suggests that Real Madrid stars don’t always come out victorious in contractual disputes, but there is no precedent for a player in his prime deciding not to renew. The question is whether that statement is still valid. The answer will depend on Vinícius’ performance, his relationship with Alonso, and how his contractual situation is managed. Vinícius’s future is uncertain, but his talent and determination remain undeniable. Madrid fans hope he recovers his best form and continues to be a reference in the team.