Underrated? The Warriors Look to Surprise in the Western Conference
A decade after their first championship, starting a dynasty, the Golden State Warriors seem to have been relegated in the Western Conference. However, are they being underestimated for next season?
According to NBA betting odds, the Warriors have the seventh-best chance of winning the West, behind teams like the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, the Denver Nuggets, the Houston Rockets, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Los Angeles Clippers.
This position in the betting makes sense. Golden State was the seventh seed last season, fell in the second round of the playoffs, and could present the most veteran starting lineup in NBA history. If Buddy Hield joins Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green, and Al Horford in the starting five, the Warriors would be the first team to line up five players aged 33 or older in a game, according to ESPN Research.¿Están siendo subestimados los Warriors esta temporada? Troy Taormina-Imagn ImagesHowever, this pessimistic view underestimates Golden State’s potential. The Warriors could be one of the most dangerous teams in the West, even at this stage, and could compete with the Thunder. The last champion could be the surprise team that prevents the repetition of the new candidate.
Curry and Butler: A Full Season
Kevin Pelton’s projections from ESPN place the Warriors in second place in the NBA, with a forecast of 56 wins, approaching the top of the West.
What explains the discrepancy between that projection and the general perception that the Warriors’ window has closed? The explanation is simple: in half a season with Butler, the Warriors were one of the best teams in the league, and they improved in the offseason. Therefore, they should be contenders again this season.
Golden State defeated the Rockets in the first round and won the first game against the Timberwolves before running out of energy without Curry, who suffered a hamstring injury. There is no shame in losing that way, as any contender would expect to struggle without their best player.
Before Butler’s transfer, Golden State had a 25-26 record with a net rating of -0.4. But from Butler’s debut to the end of the regular season, the team ranked first in defensive rating and third in net rating, with a +9.2 per 100 possessions. The team’s 23-8 record in that span, which translates to 61 wins in a full season, was no coincidence.
With Curry back and Butler on board for a full season, there’s no reason to think Golden State will be worse this season. The Warriors should benefit from incredible continuity. Twelve of their 13 best players in postseason minutes from 2024-25 will return in 2025-26, and they improved the only departure with Horford.La llegada de Al Horford a Golden State es crucial y le proporciona a Curry un hombre grande en quien puede confiar. Foto de Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
Horford’s Impact
The arrival of Horford to Golden State is crucial, as Curry has never played with a center like the 39-year-old NBA champion. Horford has scored triple digits in three-pointers in each of the last three seasons, and his 40.9% three-point percentage during that period is the best among all centers with at least 100 scored.
His ability to open the court will provide an important balance alongside Butler and Green, who may be reluctant to shoot. Horford is also a superior defender and playmaker to Saric and Post, making him a better overall fit for the Warriors’ lineup. There is tremendous defensive potential in an interior frontcourt with Butler, Green, and Horford.
A solid defense is as important to the Warriors’ winning identity as Curry’s three-pointers. In 2021-22, their last championship season, the Warriors finished second in defensive rating.
A Well-Balanced Roster
Golden State should also be better on the other end this season. The offense ran smoothly with Curry on the court, but it fell apart when he rested. Lineups without Curry or Butler ranked in the 5th percentile in offensive rating.
Age and availability could get in the way of that plan. Curry has missed an average of 15 games per season, while Butler hasn’t reached the 65-game threshold for NBA awards since 2018-19.
The Warriors will likely struggle again when Curry goes to the bench in the games Butler misses. Jonathan Kuminga could play a significant role as the best scoring option in the minutes without Curry or Butler.
For now, it’s not clear where the Warriors would need to improve. As the season approaches, they operate with an enviable combination of star power and depth.
Five different Warriors players, Curry, Butler, Green, Horford, and Brandin Podziemski, are among the top 10% of the league’s most impactful players. Behind that quintet, the Warriors have a mix of role players with various strengths, in addition to Post and Trayce Jackson-Davis.
The Rest of the West
The Warriors’ biggest problem might not be their roster, but the context surrounding them. The top of the West is much better than in 2022. However, there are still big concerns for every team in the conference behind Oklahoma City and Denver.
Fred VanVleet’s injury could lower Houston’s ceiling, Minnesota depends on veterans and unproven youngsters, the Lakers have a thin rotation and a potentially disastrous defense, and the Clippers face the same age issues as the Warriors.
Even the Thunder could have a hard time beating Golden State in a possible playoff matchup. The Warriors have consistently played tough against this version of the Thunder.
The Warriors would need to navigate a minefield, but it’s not a totally unrealistic proposition, and at this stage of their competitive timeline, an opportunity is all they can ask for.
With James Wiseman out and Kuminga halfway there, the Warriors’ “two timelines” plan has fallen apart. Now it’s about the current timeline and maximizing Curry’s remaining opportunities.
