India vs Australia: Keys to the WTC. How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting event; it stands as a series of great importance with multiple aspects at stake. Beyond the direct competition, this encounter has significant relevance in the context of the World Test Championship final in June. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has propelled them to third place in the championship table. If New Zealand repeats this performance against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to strive to maintain their position in the table.

India: Rating Outlook

India has participated in 4 series, accumulating 360 points and a points percentage of 75%. In the current cycle, India has two pending series: against Australia and England. Both series consist of four tests, which means the point allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s strong home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four matches against Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points, considering that a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, is by winning all four matches.

Australia: Situation Analysis

Australia has participated in 3 series, accumulating 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. Currently, Australia needs to surpass 420 points to achieve a percentage above 70% if the series against South Africa takes place. In case this series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. The series against South Africa is scheduled for three tests, with 40 points available per victory and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury concerns, Australia remains in a favorable position thanks to the points already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.