India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

The Crucial Challenge: Australia vs. India and the World Test Championship

The series between Australia and India, a standout event in its own right, takes on even greater significance as it is set in the run-up to the final of the World Test Cricket Championship, scheduled for June. The fate of both teams in the competition is at stake. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, places them in third place in the championship table. If New Zealand repeats this performance against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to strive to stay above in the standings.

Classification Insights: India

India has participated in 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%. It still has two series pending in the current cycle: against Australia and against England. Both series consist of four tests, which implies the same points allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. Therefore, India will have to exceed 70% to secure their position ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s strong home record, they are expected to perform well against England. This means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150 points needed.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, it will need 110 points in the series against England. The only way to achieve this goal is by winning all four matches, as a victory grants 30 points and a draw, 10.

Classification Outlook: Australia

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. It needs to exceed 420 points to achieve a percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If this series is canceled, its goal will be to exceed 336 points. The series against South Africa, which is expected to consist of three tests, will offer 40 points per victory and 13 per draw. Despite injury concerns, Australia is in a solid position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.