MLB Awards Race: MVP, Cy Young, and Top Rookies

With the regular baseball season entering its final stretch, the race for individual honors reaches its peak. This is our fourth and final “Awards Watch” of the season, and we have restructured the format to focus on the main contenders in each category. What races are already decided? Which ones are still open? Let’s analyze.

Contents

Most Valuable Player Cy Young Rookie of the Year Manager of the Year

Most Valuable Player

MLB Awards Race: MVP, Cy Young, and Top Rookies

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American League

Main contenders:

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

Next eight:

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals

Odds according to ESPN BET: Judge (-350, 78% chance to win), Raleigh (+200)Race Analysis: The competition is closer than the numbers and bets suggest. Judge has had a better offensive season, despite Raleigh’s home run and RBI pace. Judge leads American League hitters in win probability percentage and championship win probability. Raleigh, as a catcher, plays a valuable defensive position. Raleigh might be having the best season ever for a catcher, but his recent performance could be a factor against him. If Raleigh doesn’t maintain his level and the Mariners don’t make the playoffs, Judge could be the winner.Prediction: Raleigh will not reach 60 home runs, but will keep his numbers strong enough to surpass Judge.

National League

Main contenders:

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets

Next eight:

Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets
Kyle Tucker, Cubs
Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies

Odds according to ESPN BET: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% probability of winning), Schwarber (+2500)Race Analysis: Ohtani seems to be in control, especially with the odds favoring Schwarber as his main competitor. Ohtani combines Schwarber’s power with Soto’s dominance on base, and also provides valuable innings pitched. He leads the National League in win probability and championship win probability.Prediction: Ohtani will win the award decisively.

Cy Young

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American League

Main contenders:

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Next eight:

Hunter Brown, Astros
Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers
Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles
Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins
Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox
Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Odds according to ESPN BET: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)Race Analysis: Skubal has the edge, although Crochet has shown great recent performance. Skubal leads in key metrics. Each start is crucial for both pitchers.Prediction: Skubal should maintain his pace and win the award.

National League

Main contenders:

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies

Next eight:

Zack Wheeler, Phillies
Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers
Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies
Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds

Odds according to ESPN BET: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)Race Analysis: Markets see Skenes as the favorite. Skenes has a slight edge over Sanchez, but both are very close in performance. Skenes has a low ERA, but the difference in FIP is narrow.Prediction: Skenes is the best pitcher in the National League and should win the award.

Rookie of the Year

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American League

Main contenders:

Nick Kurtz, Athletics vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox

Next eight:

Jacob Wilson, Athletics
Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox
Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox
Kyle Teel, White Sox
Luke Keaschall, Twins
Mike Vasil, White Sox
Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox

Odds according to ESPN BET: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)Race Analysis: Anthony’s injury practically assures the award for Kurtz. Kurtz had a historic game with four home runs. His OPS of 1.021 positions him among the best rookies in the American League and National League since 1900.Prediction: Kurtz will win unanimously.

National League

Main contenders:

Isaac Collins, Brewers vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves

Next eight:

Caleb Durbin, Brewers
Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins
Chad Patrick, Brewers
Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers
Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets

Odds according to ESPN BET: Horton (-115, 54% chance to win), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)Race Analysis: Horton is seen as the favorite due to his recent good performance. Collins is the main representative of the National League’s best rookie class.Prediction: If Horton keeps his pace, he will win. Otherwise, the prize could go to a Brewers player.

Manager of the Year

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American League

Main contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays

Next three:

Joe Espada, Astros
Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels
Stephen Vogt, Guardians

Race Analysis: The competition seems to be between Hinch and Schneider.Prediction: The outcome will depend on who achieves the best record in the American League. Hinch is expected to win the award.