The UFC action returns this Saturday with an exciting middleweight clash. Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho will face off at the Accor Arena in Paris, with the prelims starting at 12 p.m. ET.
Imavov, currently ranked number 4 in the division, comes into this fight with a four-fight winning streak. His most recent victory was by TKO in the second round against former champion Israel Adesanya.
Borralho, positioned at number 6, remains undefeated in his nine UFC fights. This will be his first octagon appearance in 2025. Borralho was the first member of the Fight Nerds gym to obtain a UFC contract in 2021.
In the co-stellar event, Mauricio Ruffy, also from the Fighting Nerd team, will face Benoît Saint Denis.
Expert Predictions
Alofoke Deportes presents the predictions of its MMA analysts and commentators for this event. In addition, Alofoke Deportes’ betting expert, Ian Parker, shares his analysis and recommendations.
Main Event Analysis
Borralho possesses better grappling ability, and his striking has evolved into a real threat. The versatility of an opponent is a problem for Imavov. Imavov performs well against pure grapplers or pure strikers. Fighters who master both can focus him in one area and attack him in the other discipline. It was expected that Borralho would take Jared Cannonier to the mat in his last fight, but he handled the striking well. This is because he is preparing to face the middleweight champion, Khamzat Chimaev, whom the winner of this fight could face. Borralho’s improved striking will make the difference. — Anthony Smith
Imavov usually starts slow. If he starts slow against Borralho, he could lose rounds. Borralho will use feints, good footwork, and unpredictability to win rounds and possibly steal those that may be scored closely by the judges. I think Borralho will win by convincing decision. — Din Thomas
Betting Analysis
The odds are accurate as of September 5th. For the most up-to-date odds, visit Alofoke Deportes.
Parker: Over 4.5 rounds (-240). This could be a fight for the number 1 spot in the middleweight division. After opening with almost identical lines for both fighters, the odds have moved in favor of Borralho.
This will be a close fight, but I think the difference will be Borralho’s ground game. Borralho can match Imavov’s striking, and when he starts landing punches, it will open the way for Borralho’s wrestling and ground game to take control. However, considering that neither fighter has been finished in the octagon, the over 4.5 rounds bet should be met with relative ease. Even if the fight goes to the ground, Imavov has a good enough submission defense to avoid being finished, but Borralho will have no problem maintaining top position and doing enough damage to secure the rounds.
Best Parker Bets on the Rest of the Card
Lightweight: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy
Ruffy to win (-195). Saint Denis faces the promising Ruffy in what should be an entertaining matchup. If Saint Denis can’t take the fight to the ground, Ruffy will outstrike him for three rounds or land a punch to finish the fight.
Money has been flowing into Saint Denis, which has moved Ruffy’s line from near -200 to much more playable odds. Coming from the Fighting Nerds team, Ruffy will be prepared for any attempt at a fight or takedown from Saint Denis.
Light Heavyweight: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig
Bukauskas to win by KO/TKO (-125). Craig has suffered three consecutive losses and a “no contest” due to an illegal kick in his last four fights, so he could benefit from a win against Bukauskas. But unless he can take Bukauskas to his guard on the ground, Craig is likely to be knocked out. Craig is a skilled submission specialist, but he hasn’t evolved as a striker. The game plan to beat him has been tested: Simply keep the fight standing. Bukauskas is expected to follow the plan and get the KO victory.
