New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has strengthened their aspirations to reach the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s.
New Zealand was a step away from reaching the top spot in the Test rankings, being only 0.086 points behind Australia after their victory in Wellington.Following the victory, the ICC’s predictor tool initially showed New Zealand at the top, which caused some confusion. However, the ICC clarified that Australia maintains first place with 116.461 points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could consolidate its leadership if it wins the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies gave them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series. This would mean that India would need five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final at Lord’s. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to add points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the impossibility of playing some series, the ICC had to change the criteria for classification from absolute points to a percentage of points played, that is, points per series played. Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a three-Test series scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two Tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points disputed. When India finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will put them ahead of New Zealand. Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold, Australia could increase its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
