India vs Australia: WTC Keys, 5 wins needed for qualification

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends individual competition, becoming a series of great importance with much at stake. Furthermore, with the World Test Championship final on the horizon in June, both teams are vying for more than just victory in each match. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory over the West Indies propels them to third place in the championship table. If they achieve the same result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will need to strive to stay above them in the rankings.

Classification Perspectives: The Road to the Final

India

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points with a percentage of 75%. They have two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England, both of four tests. This implies an identical point allocation for both series: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. Therefore, India needs to surpass that 70% to secure their position above New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Considering India’s exceptional home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150 points needed.

For example, if India loses against Australia with a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points, considering that a win grants 30 points and a draw 10, is by winning all four matches.

Australia

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points with a percentage of 82.22%. They need to exceed 420 points to achieve a percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given the expectation that the series against South Africa will consist of three tests, 40 points will be offered for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a solid position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 result against South Africa to stay above 70%.