The WNBA Playoff Race: Detailed Analysis
As the WNBA regular season draws to a close in three weeks, the excitement intensifies as teams compete to secure a playoff spot, which will begin on September 14th. With only one team already qualified, the competition for the remaining eight spots is fierce. The Minnesota Lynx are the only team that has secured their place in the postseason. On the other hand, the Connecticut Sun have already been eliminated, and the Dallas Wings and Chicago Sky were also knocked out of the running on Tuesday. The standings show a large number of teams battling for home-court advantage or to secure one of the last playoff spots. Only six games separate the second-place New York Liberty from the tenth-place Washington Mystics.Next, we analyze the performance of the ten teams with chances of reaching the playoffs, evaluating their prospects and possibilities.
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Minnesota Lynx
Real or not? Minnesota will only lose one playoff game. Minnesota has suffered six losses this season, not counting the Commissioner’s Cup final, and none have been consecutive. Reaching the final without losing in the initial and semi-final rounds is something we see as possible. But, reaching the WNBA finals, now with a best-of-seven game structure (2-2-1-1-1), with only one loss?Can the Lynx reduce the finals to the equivalent of the old five-game series? It’s possible: they have a 17-1 home record this season, not counting the loss in the Cup against Indiana on July 1. Their only home loss in the regular season was against Atlanta on July 27.
Verdict: Not real. It’s more likely that the Lynx will lose up to three postseason games, the first of which we predict will be in the semifinals. Then, the finals can take on a life of their own. We say that Minnesota wins that series in six games.Fighting for the Local Advantage
New York Liberty
Real or not? New York will fall to fourth place and face Minnesota in the WNBA semifinals. The Liberty have a 5-7 record since Breanna Stewart was sidelined by a bone contusion on July 30, briefly falling to third place in the standings behind Atlanta. With Phoenix and Las Vegas right behind them, the current champions seemed in danger of falling even further, with the possibility of a 1-vs-4 semifinal series against Minnesota.Verdict: Not real. Tuesday’s game against Atlanta will be crucial to prevent the Dream from taking second place, but New York has a fairly favorable schedule beyond that, with only three of its remaining nine games against teams above .500. And with Stewart aiming for a return date before her birthday on August 27, help is on the way. Without Stewart or Jonquel Jones, the Liberty have been vulnerable, but with both, alongside Sabrina Ionescu, they have proven time and again to be special.Atlanta Dream
Real or not? The Dream has had more success with Griner coming off the bench. The absence of Brittney Griner in early August allowed Atlanta to move Naz Hillmon into the starting lineup, giving the Dream better on-court balance than when they started with 6-foot-8-inch Griner alongside Brionna Jones. After winning in Hillmon’s first five starts, Atlanta lost two of the last three games on a difficult six-game road trip along the West Coast. The Dream’s lineups with Hillmon have still outscored their opponents by 44 points since she became a starter. Griner has also looked more comfortable in a reserve role since returning to the lineup on August 10. After a quiet first game, Griner has averaged 11.3 points per game, 6.3 rebounds per game, and 1.8 blocks per game in just 18.9 minutes per game in the last four, shooting 60% from the field. Using this net points metric, ESPN’s Dean Oliver found that Griner is one of the top five most improved WNBA players coming off the bench relative to their production as a starter.Verdict: Real. Starting with Hillmon always looked like the end game for Atlanta come playoff time. Griner’s neck injury had the benefit of allowing the Dream to get there early.Phoenix Mercury
Real or not? The Mercury are not true title contenders. Phoenix has a 6-7 record since July 16, losing all games in that span against New York, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Las Vegas. Can the Mercury compete for the title if they can’t beat the teams vying to host first-round games? The Mercury’s game against the Aces on Thursday will have major implications for the standings. Both enter the matchup seven games behind league leader Minnesota, but only half a game behind Atlanta and New York. But it’s also an opportunity for Phoenix to put together a good game against what is arguably the league’s hottest team right now.Verdict: Not real. Phoenix feels like it’s just taking shape, finally healthy and able to put together lineups and combinations that the team would want to use in the postseason. Yes, the Mercury admit they have room to grow and be their best version. But Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally, and Alyssa Thomas have only played 14 games together this season. Once the Mercury’s big three have more time together, they hope to overwhelm their opponents with depth and endless offensive weapons.Las Vegas Aces
Real or not? Las Vegas will end up with one of the top three seeds. Las Vegas is on an eight-game winning streak, the best in the league, and recently secured a massive win over Atlanta. The Aces have a 22-14 record and are just behind Phoenix, who are in fourth place (21-13); both are seven games apart, but the Mercury have a slight advantage in winning percentage. They play on Thursday night in Las Vegas; if the Aces win, they will have the best record and maintain the regular season tiebreaker over the Mercury. A’ja Wilson is also playing some of the best basketball of the season. Since the Aces’ winning streak began, the three-time MVP is averaging 26.9 points and 13.1 rebounds per game.Verdict: Not real. Las Vegas has a relatively light remaining schedule, with one game against Washington and three against Chicago. The games against the Dream and the Lynx should be considered must-win games. But the Aces need help from the teams currently above them, particularly the Liberty and the Dream. Atlanta has a difficult three-game stretch (against Minnesota, New York, and the Aces), but then ends the regular season against teams that are below .500. And New York, as indicated above, has six of its last nine games against teams below .500.With Good Playoff Chances
Golden State Valkyries
Real or not? The Valkyries will make the playoffs in their inaugural season, but will be swept in the first round. The Valkyries are just one game away from sixth place, and with Indiana plagued by injuries and Seattle struggling, Golden State seems to be safe in the postseason, which would mark the first time in WNBA history that an expansion team reaches the playoffs in its first year. Golden State closes the regular season with a difficult stretch, with games against the Mercury (Friday), the Liberty (September 2), and two of the last three against the Lynx. Realistically, the Valkyries could finish as high as sixth place, but that still means a difficult opponent in the first round.Verdict: Real. This season, as the first round moves to a 1-1-1 format, Golden State would be guaranteed a home game. Golden State has a 10-7 home record this season, and the magic inside Ballhalla has turned Chase Center into one of the most difficult buildings to play in this year.
But it is likely that the Valkyries will face the Dream, Liberty, Mercury or Aces, teams that are at their best or are recovering and building a more solid basketball. They also have playoff experience.They Need Help
Seattle Storm
Real or not? The Storm fight in decisive moments. The Storm are stuck at .500 because they’ve lost nine games by five points or less, the most in the league, including six of seven losses during a slump in August. Even before that, Seattle wasn’t excelling offensively in clutch moments. According to WNBA Advanced Stats, the Storm’s 44% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in clutch situations ranks ninth.Verdict: Partially true. To some extent, that was predictable. Jewell Loyd was Seattle’s primary option in the decisive moments last year, and after trading her, the Storm lack shot creation. The Storm also rank ninth in eFG% on shots that are not potential assists, according to GeniusIQ tracking, ahead of exactly the same four teams. Even so, Seattle’s recent close losses have had as much to do with the opponent’s shooting ability. Opponents have shot 7 of 13 (54%) on clutch threes against the Storm in August. No other team that has faced at least 10 clutch threes in the month has seen its opponents make more than 42% of them. That is unlikely to continue, which should help Seattle’s chances of holding onto a playoff spot.Indiana Fever
Real or not? Injuries will finally catch up to Indiana and the Fever will not make the playoffs. The Fever certainly have a lot of work ahead of them after losing a third baseman to a season-ending injury when Sophie Cunningham tore her MCL on Sunday. But Indiana has shown a remarkable amount of resolve in the face of adversity, as evidenced by the Fever’s 21-point comeback win over the Connecticut Sun this weekend, a franchise record. Indiana desperately needs Caitlin Clark to return, but in the meantime it must watch newcomers Odyssey Sims and Shey Peddy, both experienced professionals, step up in the backcourt. And the Fever still rely on Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston, two of the league’s best players, to lead the charge.Verdict: Not real. To miss the postseason, Indiana would have to really plummet in the final stretch and see teams like the Sparks and Mystics catch fire in the next three weeks, and neither group has looked particularly unstoppable. It won’t be easy, and it could go down to the wire, but we project the Fever will still find a way to make the playoffs.Los Angeles Sparks
Real or not? The Angels are the team that the best seeds don’t want to face. If they make the playoffs, the Sparks are going to be unusually hot for a lower seed. Since they started with a 6-14 record, Los Angeles is 11-4. Only the Aces have more wins in that span. The Sparks’ surge came as the team rallied. Julie Allemand has improved Los Angeles’ game as a starting point guard, while Cameron Brink and Rae Burrell have strengthened the bench.Verdict: Not real. Maintaining this streak could be a challenge for the Sparks, who have held the second spot in offensive rankings since July 13th, largely thanks to 37% 3-point shooting. Four Los Angeles players (Burrell, Brink, Kelsey Plum, and Azura Stevens) are shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc in that span. Only Plum has previously surpassed that mark during a full season. The Sparks’ push for the playoffs hit turbulent waters in their last four games. Los Angeles played two close games against the struggling Dallas and lost in Washington. The Sparks are undoubtedly better than their record, but they are probably not ready to threaten a top seed.Washington Mystics
Real or not? Washington won’t make the playoffs, but will help determine the top four. Relying on rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen and with a new coaching staff led by Sydney Johnson, the Mystics were not expected to compete this season. The fact that they are still in the playoff hunt is a victory for the franchise. But the Mystics have a difficult finish: seven of their last nine opponents are currently in playoff positions. Washington has won three of its last five games, but is coming off an 11-point loss to last-place Connecticut at home on Tuesday.Verdict: Real. We expect the Mystics to miss the postseason for the second consecutive year. But because they still face top-four contenders Las Vegas, Phoenix, and New York (twice), they could get an unexpected win or two that impacts the standings.
