The Fight for the Championship in the WNBA 2025 Begins!
After a record-breaking regular season with 44 games, the 2025 WNBA playoffs are here. Eight teams will compete for the title, starting with a four-game series on Sunday. Among the teams are the current champions, the New York Liberty, the Minnesota Lynx, who lead the table, and the Las Vegas Aces, with a streak of 16 consecutive victories. Last year, New York defeated Minnesota in the WNBA Finals, but this season, the championship series has been extended to a best-of-seven format. In addition, the first round has changed to a 1-1-1 format, which guarantees at least one home game for each team in the playoffs. This means the Indiana Fever, who ended a seven-year playoff drought last year, will host their first playoff game since 2016 next week. Although Caitlin Clark, the Fever’s sensation, has been out of the playoffs due to an injury since July 15, Indiana has proven to be a dangerous opponent. We analyze the eight teams in contention for the championship, from their best assets to their biggest weaknesses.Atlanta Dream | Golden State Valkyries | Indiana Fever | Las Vegas Aces | Minnesota Lynx | New York Liberty | Phoenix Mercury | Seattle Storm
Minnesota Lynx (No. 1)
First round opponent: Golden State Valkyries (91.6% chance of advancing) Title possibilities (according to ESPN’s BPI): 50.0%What’s at stake: After losing in the 2024 WNBA Finals, Minnesota (34-10) has been at the top of the league all season and is looking to win its fifth championship in franchise history and its first since 2017.Projected Starting Lineup: G Courtney Williams (13.9 points per game, 6.2 assists per game, 4.9 rebounds per game), G Kayla McBride (14.9 PPG, 3.5 APG, 40.9% 3-point percentage), F Napheesa Collier (23.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.6 blocks per game), F Alanna Smith (9.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG), F Bridget Carleton (6.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG)Why they could win: Despite being the best team in the league all year, the Lynx play with a chip on their shoulder. Losing last year’s Finals was painful, especially how the series ended, in a winner-take-all fifth game, after which the Lynx questioned the officiating. Last year’s disappointment gives Minnesota extra motivation. Collier, one of the two favorites for this year’s MVP (which would be her first), is second in the league in scoring with 23.0 points per game. On Thursday, she became the second WNBA player (joining Elena Delle Donne) to record a 50-40-90 season, with 53% field goal shooting, 40% on three-pointers, and 91% from the free-throw line. Minnesota averages the most points per game (86.4) in the WNBA and has the best offensive and defensive ratings in the league. With players like Williams, McBride, Smith, and Natisha Hiedeman, the Lynx have some of the best depth in the WNBA, which helped them maintain a winning record (5-2) even when Collier was injured for three weeks in August. Opponents face an incessant rotation of players throughout the game, and it all helped result in a dominant regular season.Fatal Flaw: Last year, the Lynx struggled with the Liberty’s size in the Finals, and Minnesota’s roster didn’t get any bigger this season. With Smith at center and Collier at power forward, bigger teams can give them problems. Their defense remains one of the best in the league, but facing teams with devastating post combinations (Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner, who helped Atlanta beat Minnesota twice this season, come to mind) could present challenges in the postseason.Las Vegas Aces (No. 2)First-round opponent: Seattle Storm (61.4% chance of advancing) Title possibilities (according to ESPN’s BPI): 9.3%What’s at stake: The Aces are looking to return to the finals for the first time since their back-to-back championships in 2022 and 2023.Projected Starting Lineup: G Jackie Young (16.5 PPG, 5.1 APG, 4.5 RPG), G Chelsea Gray (11.2 PPG, 5.4 APG), C A’ja Wilson (23.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG), F NaLyssa Smith (8.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG), F Kierstan Bell (4.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG)Why they could win: The Aces (30-14) enter the playoffs on a 16-game winning streak, a run that began after a 53-point thrashing by Minnesota on August 2. That loss left Las Vegas with a 14-14 record, but it was a great motivator. Wilson played well all season, but found an even higher gear in the second half, one that may have propelled her to a fourth MVP award. Guard Jewell Loyd, in her first season with the Aces after 10 in Seattle, moved to a reserve role in late July that seemed to boost both her and the team. She is scoring 11.2 PPG, the lowest average since her rookie season. But she is playing with purpose and energy, setting good screens, making hustle plays, fully committing on defense, which has helped fuel Las Vegas’ dramatic turnaround. It took the Aces almost half the season to fully adapt to the absence of guard Kelsey Plum, a starter on their two championship teams, who was traded to Los Angeles. But once all the pieces fit, they began to look more like a championship team. And with this winning streak, the Aces’ confidence is soaring.Fatal flaw: During the Aces’ early-season lows, coach Becky Hammon questioned their effort and defense. Both have been addressed, and disappointment in effort is unlikely at this point. But can opponents find some cracks in the defense? Not with Wilson, who could be Defensive Player of the Year again. But she’ll need everyone around her to play as well as they have in the last month.Atlanta Dream (No. 3)First-round opponent: Indiana Fever (66.9% chance of advancing) Title possibilities (according to ESPN’s BPI): 13.8%What’s at stake: The Dream (30-14), who won twice as many games this year as in the 2024 regular season, are looking for their first title after losing in sweeps in three previous appearances in the WNBA Finals (2010, 2011, 2013).Projected Starting Lineup: G Allisha Gray (18.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.5 APG), G Rhyne Howard (17.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.6 APG), G Jordin Canada (11.2 PPG, 5.7 APG), F Brionna Jones (12.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG), F Naz Hillmon (8.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG)Why they could win: While much attention has been paid to Las Vegas’ winning streak, the Dream won 15 of their last 18 games, including the last six in a row. Two of the losses in that stretch were to the Aces, the only team Atlanta didn’t beat at least once this season (0-3). The Dream’s 30 wins were by far the most in franchise history, surpassing a 23-win season in 2018.
Under first-year coach Karl Smesko, the Dream adopted a different identity this season, averaging 84.4 PPG with an offensive rating of 110.5 (compared to 77.0 and 99.0 in 2024). Meanwhile, Atlanta continued the defensive prowess it was already known for, finishing with a defensive rating of 100.5, the best in the league. Depth is also key: the Dream made their finish in the top four despite starters Howard and Canada missing a combined 27 games. Hillmon, the favorite for Sixth Player of the Year, has actually started since August, and center Brittney Griner has adapted to coming off the bench. Guard Maya Caldwell, a hidden gem in the generally unimpressive 2021 draft class, has played whatever role the Dream have needed, including starting 16 games.Fatal Flaw: The Dream’s main strength is their guard play, led by All-Stars Gray and Howard. Atlanta was one of the league’s best 3-point shooting teams, averaging 9.6 per game compared to 6.0 last season. Jones, Hillmon, and Griner are good post players, but can they match up over a series with the league’s best? That could be a concern, especially if they reach the semifinals and face the Aces, the team they struggled against in the regular season.Phoenix Mercury (No. 4)
First-round rival: New York Liberty (26.5% chance of advancing) Title possibilities (according to ESPN’s BPI): 1.1%What’s at stake: Phoenix (27-17), which hasn’t won a playoff game since firing Sandy Brondello after a loss in the 2021 WNBA Finals, aims to return, but first must overcome the defending champions, Brondello’s Liberty.Projected Starting Lineup: G Monique Akoa Makani (7.7 PPG, 2.7 APG), G Kahleah Copper (15.9 PPG, 3.0 RPG), F Satou Sabally (16.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.4 APG), F Alyssa Thomas (15.7 PPG, 9.3 APG, 9.0 RPG), C Natasha Mack (4.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG)Why they could win: In her first year with the Mercury, Thomas, a six-time WNBA All-Star, has been surrounded by the kind of shots she never enjoyed in Connecticut. Seven Phoenix players have averaged at least one three-pointer per game, a total that only Golden State can match. The result has been arguably the best season of Thomas’s Hall of Fame career. She’s shooting 53.5%, a career high, and has recorded eight triple-doubles, a WNBA record. The Mercury don’t sacrifice size for shooting, with four starters plus sixth woman DeWanna Bonner all 6-foot-1 or taller, which could make them a tricky matchup for smaller opponents.Fatal Flaw: Phoenix got here largely by taking care of business against lower-ranked opponents. The Mercury won the season series against every team below them except Seattle (split 2-2). That’s good news against New York with home-court advantage in the first round, but less promising when it comes to an extended playoff run: Phoenix went a combined 2-9 against the top three seeds.New York Liberty (No. 5)First-round opponent: Phoenix Mercury (73.5% chance of advancing) Title possibilities (according to ESPN’s BPI): 19.9%What’s at stake: As reigning WNBA champions, the Liberty are looking to defend their title and enter the dynastic conversation.Projected Starting Lineup: G Natasha Cloud (10.3 PPG, 5.3 APG); G Sabrina Ionescu (18.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.5 APG); F Leonie Fiebich (8.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG); F Breanna Stewart (18.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG); C Jonquel Jones (13.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG)Why they could win: The Liberty arguably have more accumulated talent on their roster than any other team in the league. Two former MVPs in Stewart and Jones, one of the league’s best guards in Ionescu, and a defensive stalwart in Cloud. The icing on the cake was the addition of Emma Meesseman, 2019 WNBA Finals MVP and three-time EuroLeague MVP, in July after the All-Star break. Super team seems outdated when you see the talent on this roster.Fatal Flaw: Two things have plagued the Liberty’s season: injuries and inconsistency. New York started the season 9-0, looking as dominant as expected, but down the stretch to finish the season, the Liberty are only 5-5. Four of those losses were against other playoff teams. This season’s injuries have led to fluctuations in the lineup, sometimes hindering chemistry. New York was really just getting a glimpse of what their complete team looks like with the addition of Meesseman in the final days of the regular season. If the Liberty can put it all together, they are a formidable force capable of repeating as champions. But “if” is the operative word.Indiana Fever (No. 6)First-round opponent: Atlanta Dream (33.1% chance of advancing) Title possibilities (according to ESPN’s BPI): 2.9%What’s at stake: After missing the postseason from 2017 to 2023, Indiana has secured consecutive playoff appearances and is now looking to win its first playoff game, and series, since 2015. Even after season-ending injuries to Caitlin Clark and five others, the Fever have maintained that they want to make noise in the postseason.
Projected Starting Lineup: G Odyssey Sims (10.3 PPG, 4.0 APG), G Kelsey Mitchell (20.2 PPG, 39.4 3P%, 3.4 APG), G Lexie Hull (7.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG), F Natasha Howard (11.4, 6.6 RPG), F Aliyah Boston (15.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.7 APG)Why they could win: Indiana has two of the league’s best players in Boston and Mitchell, the latter could appear on MVP ballots for her feats in keeping the Fever afloat. Despite so many injuries, Indiana has a strong core with that duo plus Howard and Hull. After bringing in so many late-season newcomers, the Fever found some momentum to close out the regular season, winning their last three games. Even without Clark, the offense is capable of scoring a lot of points.
No opponent in the playoffs will be as challenging as the adversity the Fever have overcome in the regular season, as they lost five players to season-ending injuries and need to adapt to DeWanna Bonner’s mid-season departure. But Indiana credits a very close-knit locker room for preventing the team from fracturing, and perhaps that camaraderie will keep the Fever playing until September.Fatal Flaw: The Fever’s ceiling just isn’t as high as it was before losing Clark, Aari McDonald, Sydney Colson, Sophie Cunningham, and Chloe Bibby to injury. Newcomers on hardship contracts (Sims, Shey Peddy, and Aerial Powers) have assimilated well into coach Stephanie White’s system, but Indiana is only 7-6 since losing McDonald and Colson in early August for the season. Only two of those wins were against playoff teams (August 26 against Seattle and Minnesota without Collier on Tuesday). The Fever have been defensively inconsistent this season, often struggling to defend without fouling, and without Clark as their maestro, they have a more limited offense that can’t compensate. They have been forced to rely on Mitchell to go off every night, and their decimated guard/forward depth due to injuries could finally bite them.Seattle Storm (No. 7)First-round rival: Las Vegas Aces (38.7% chance of advancing) Title possibilities (according to ESPN’s BPI): 2.9%Projected Starting Lineup: G Skylar Diggins (15.5 PPG, 6.0 APG), G Brittney Sykes (14.1 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.2 RPG), F Gabby Williams (11.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 2.3 SPG), F Nneka Ogwumike (18.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.3 APG), C Ezi Magbegor (8.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.2 BPG)What’s at stake: When the Storm signed Diggins and Ogwumike in the 2024 offseason, it started an era of championship hopes, one that has yet to produce a playoff victory. And after Seattle fell in the second half of 2025, a competitive playoff series could be the bare minimum to avoid offseason changes.Why they could win: The Storm, who boast four All-Stars, the most in the league after adding Sykes midseason, look stronger on paper than their 23-21 record. Until the final week of the season, Seattle actually had a better differential than Las Vegas, and only the Lynx can match the Storm’s three wins this season by more than 30 points. Seattle has also often played down to its competition. The Storm had a record of only 10-7 against lottery teams, losing the season series to Los Angeles and Washington. At the same time, Seattle only lost one series to a playoff rival, the Fever, a team they couldn’t face until the WNBA Finals.Fatal Flaw: Largely due to their league-leading turnover rate, the Storm scored the second-most points per possession in transition (1.29), according to GeniusIQ tracking. But when opponents can force Seattle into the halfcourt, the team’s lack of shot creation after the Jewell Loyd trade is a problem. The Storm’s 1.01 points per possession in non-transition situations ranked ninth, last among playoff teams. That has been demonstrated in late-game situations when the action slows down. Seattle ranks ninth with an offensive rating of 97.2 in clutch moments, according to WNBA Advanced Stats, which defines that as the final five minutes when the score is within five points. And Seattle lost nine games by five points or less, tied with Dallas for the most in the league.Golden State Valkyries (No. 8)First-round opponent: Minnesota Lynx (8.4% chance of advancing) Title possibilities (according to ESPN’s BPI): 0.1%What’s at stake: Golden State (23-21), the league’s first expansion team since 2008, has already become the first franchise to reach the playoffs in its inaugural season. Now it will try to become the first to win a series, or even a title.Projected Starting Lineup: G Veronica Burton (12.0 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.4 RPG), F Cecilia Zandalasini (10.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.8 APG), F Janelle Salaun (11.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.2 APG), F Iliana Rupert (9.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG), C Temi Fagbenle (7.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG)Why they could win: The Valkyries built their identity around defense during training camp, and it has paid off: they boast the fourth-best defensive rating in the league (99.9) and hold their opponents to the fewest points per game (76.4). Players like Burton, Carla Leite, and Rupert have been revelations for Golden State in their first season, and the team’s depth with veterans Tiffany Hayes, Monique Billings, and Zandalasini gives the Valkyries the experience to find success in the postseason. Golden State has a certain level of grit that should make opponents facing the Valkyries nervous. No, this franchise has never been in the playoffs, but after making history so many times this season, they could do it again now.Fatal Flaw: The Valkyries have one of the five worst offenses, scoring only 78.3 points per game, the fourth-lowest in the league, and shooting 41.0% from the field, the worst in the league. Their active leading scorer, Burton, has hit big shots and sparked the team on multiple occasions, but only scores 12.0 points per game, 38th in the WNBA. Despite how strong their defense is, it’s possible the Valkyries may not be able to produce enough offense and scoring to remain competitive and have a deep postseason run.
