The Las Vegas Aces are shaping up as favorites to conquer their third WNBA title in four seasons, facing the Phoenix Mercury in the 2025 Finals. This prediction comes after an overtime victory against the Indiana Fever in the fifth game of the semi-final. According to ESPN BET, the Aces started as favorites with -135, while the Mercury were positioned with +115. The first game of the series, which will be played at home on Friday night, has the Aces as 3-point favorites. The Aces’ season start was irregular, with a 14-14 record, which raised their odds to +3000 in mid-August. However, the team reacted with a 16-game winning streak, finishing the regular season and entering the postseason with championship odds of +260. Despite the notable recovery, the bookmakers managed to stay ahead. DraftKings (11%) and ESPN BET (12%) report that the Aces are only the fourth most backed team for the title, and BetMGM places them as the third largest liability.
Despite not being a massive bet, the Phoenix Mercury received even less attention, attracting only 4.2% of the bets and 8.7% of the money on ESPN BET. Even after the semifinals were defined on September 19, the Mercury attracted less than 20% of the bets, the lowest figure among the four remaining teams. The Mercury eliminated last year’s finalists, the Lynx and the New York Liberty, on their way to the 2025 Finals. The Lynx entered the playoffs as favorites (+110), while the Liberty are the most backed team on ESPN BET for total bets (30.9%). The greatest responsibility in the main betting houses was for the Fever, who were close to reaching the Finals despite injuries to key figures like Caitlin Clark. At the start of the season, bettors strongly backed Indiana, contributing 41% of the bets on DraftKings, compared to 20% for the Lynx, the second most backed team. BetMGM also reported almost twice as many bets in favor of the Fever compared to the next closest team, considering them their biggest liability, above the Golden State Valkyries. To illustrate how improbable the 2025 Finals matchup was, Aces vs. Mercury was the 25th highest liability in the “Exact Matchup” market at BetMGM.We definitely got some money when we bumped up their odds a little bit, but we never bumped them up too much knowing this could happen. They were going to be in the playoffs, and once they got there, it’s an experienced team that knows how to win. So yes, you could have gotten a slightly higher price, but there was nothing out there that was a ridiculous price.
Johnny Avello, DraftKings Director of Sportsbook
