Wimbledon Final: Swiatek vs. Anisimova, an Unexpected Duel for the Title
The new Wimbledon champion will be crowned on Saturday, and few would have predicted this final. Will it be Iga Swiatek, five-time Grand Slam champion, who has historically struggled on grass, or the American Amanda Anisimova, number 13 in the world, who has surprised everyone, including the world number one, Aryna Sabalenka?
We analyze what each player must do to achieve victory.What does Anisimova need to beat Swiatek?
To begin with, Anisimova will need to have a good serve. There’s no way she can defeat Swiatek, in her current form, if she doesn’t achieve high effectiveness with her first serve. Interestingly, the American’s percentage of wins with her first serve has been decreasing in each match, while with the second serve it has been increasing since the third round. More than anything, Anisimova will need to relax, as nerves are inevitable in her first Wimbledon final. Swiatek has played exceptionally, showing her best level, but there could be doubts if the match becomes tense and her game begins to falter. Anisimova must stay mentally and physically in the contest, show Swiatek that she will not give up, even if Swiatek seems unstoppable. In addition, she needs to maintain the same level of play that she has shown throughout the summer on grass. It could be her only chance to win the Wimbledon title, so she must go for it. Anisimova is confident in herself and, as Sabalenka mentioned, has the courage to win the Wimbledon title. She has had to fight in most of her journey and has known how to find a way to move forward, being aggressive and taking advantage of opportunities in the most difficult moments. She will need to bring all of that to the court on Saturday, and even more. For Anisimova, it could depend on nerves in her first Grand Slam final. She will need to find ways to stay as calm and focused as possible, understanding that there will be moments, probably many, when the pressure comes into play. How will she handle those moments? If you prepare as best as possible, both strategically and mentally, you will have the best opportunity to complete your incredible fortnight with the trophy.
Good serving will be vital for Anisimova, as Swiatek has been dominating second serves. She has won at least 58% of the points on her second serve in five of six matches, and a staggering 71% in her last two matches. While Anisimova won 60% of her second serve points against Sabalenka, Swiatek is returning serves well, so Anisimova would do well to secure her first serves.
In addition to that, the best thing Anisimova can do is corner Swiatek in backhand hell. Anisimova has the best backhand in women’s tennis. It’s an absolute cannon and the source of much success in the longest rallies. It’s a contradiction, playing some of the shortest points in the game on average, but performing very well in the longer points, and any longer backhand-to-backhand rally will end up favoring the American.What does Swiatek need to beat Anisimova?
Swiatek has the advantage in terms of experience, and that will help her. Although she has never played in a Wimbledon final, she has played in five other Grand Slam finals, and she has won them all, so she knows what to expect and all the emotions that come with it. Due to her previous results at the All England Club, Swiatek hasn’t had the pressure or attention she’s had elsewhere, especially at Roland Garros, and that has probably helped her all along. Now, being the favorite, she will have to ignore all expectations and simply focus on what has brought her to this point. And that, of course, is her extraordinary game. If Swiatek can maintain the same level and intensity, and continue to trust her new instincts on grass, the title seems to be within her reach. He must keep playing as he has. Despite his (relative) problems on clay this year, the serve was where he was most vulnerable, sometimes crumbling, which affected the rest of his game. In Wimbledon, she has served brilliantly, losing only six service games in six matches. She has won more than 70% of the points with the first serve in each match, exceeding 80% three times. If she serves that way, it’s hard to see Anisimova hurting her, but the second serve could be a problem, so she needs a high percentage of success.Nobody moves better than Swiatek and it seems that she has also found a way to move well on grass, which is a problem for Anisimova, who has great power but whose movement can be exposed if Swiatek manages to settle in. Swiatek can also use her greater experience, handling nerves better.
No one matches the version of Swiatek that we saw on the court. She found a fifth gear. That said, she has sometimes played with fire with her serve: she had to save 13 of 15 break points against Caty McNally in the second round and eight of 10 against Liudmila Samsonova in the quarterfinals. It’s great that she came through in those crucial moments, but that’s a lot of break points, and Anisimova has created double-digit break points with her return in every match of the tournament. Perhaps Swiatek can continue to play with fire without getting burned, but it’s probably not something you want to count on with the way Anisimova has been playing.
Who will win?
Swiatek, Wimbledon junior champion, has found great form on grass in the last three weeks. Perhaps losing at Roland Garros, and not playing as many matches on clay as in other recent clay seasons, gave Swiatek more time to find her confidence on the grass court. Her movement seems more assured than in other grass seasons, plus her more compact strokes seem to punish her opponents. Unless Swiatek plays an anxious match, allowing Anisimova to play first-strike tennis, Swiatek will be the ninth different female champion in as many Wimbledons.Although it would be a great story for Anisimova to win, logic dictates that Swiatek will emerge victorious. She has been there and done that, five times, and although this is also her first Wimbledon final, she knows how to handle the most important occasions. The irony of playing so well on grass, when clay didn’t go so well for her, will not escape her. But her coach, Wim Fissette, has a great track record in producing winners, and together, their experience, quality, and class can lead her to victory.
I chose Swiatek at the beginning of the tournament and she has impressed me more and more with her dominance and her unflappable demeanor during the fortnight. It would be incredible if Anisimova won, and I think she will win a major title someday, but I don’t think it will happen on Saturday. Swiatek has the experience, the movement, the speed, and the serve, and all of that will be too much for Anisimova. Swiatek in three sets. Swiatek has lost both finals in 2025. That has reduced her career record in finals to 30-6. Out of this world. If she reaches this point in a tournament, she usually wins it. (Anisimova, for her part: 3-6 in finals). Throughout this fortnight of Wimbledon, Swiatek has become increasingly confident, and the warm, dry conditions have minimized many of the doubtful movements and unreliable bounces that can sink a natural clay player like Swiatek on grass. This seems like the perfect moment for her to get her first Wimbledon title. Anisimova is hitting the ball so incredibly well that she will have a chance; in fact, I bet she takes a set. But I guess Swiatek takes the other two.
