The 2026 World Cup is approaching, and the excitement is at its peak! After an intense qualifying phase, we already know 42 of the teams that will compete in the United States, Mexico, and Canada next summer. There are six places left to be defined, which means the competition will be fierce. Since the classification began in September 2023, 209 national teams dreamed of lifting the trophy. Now, only 64 keep the hope alive. It’s time to analyze and classify the contenders. For this ranking, we have used two key criteria: the estimated market value of each player, taken from the Transfermarkt site, as an indicator of talent; and football Elo ratings, which evaluate the performance of each team based on results, match location, the quality of the opponent, and the competitiveness of the match. Here’s the updated ranking after the November international break:
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Team Ranking
64. New Caledonia
The New Caledonia team has no players with an estimated market value on Transfermarkt.63. Suriname
62. Curaçao (Classified)61. Qatar (Classified)
Qatar, with the lowest market value and Elo ranking among the qualified teams, and with an unfavorable goal difference in the qualifying phase, might not be in the lowest-ranked pot in the December draw.60. South Africa (Qualified)59. Haiti (Ranked)58. Cabo Verde (Classified)
57. New Zealand (Ranked)56. Iraq
55. Jamaica
54. Jordan (Ranked)
53. Saudi Arabia (Ranked)52. North Macedonia
51. Bosnia and Herzegovina
50. Bolivia
49. Northern Ireland
48. Ghana (Qualified)Despite a combined market value exceeding 15 times that of Qatar, Ghana ranks ahead in the Elo ranking. Led by Antoine Semenyo and Mohammed Kudus, they could field almost a full starting eleven of players from the five major European leagues. Will this be the key to their recent difficulties?
47. Tunisia (Classified)46. Romania
45. Panama (Qualified)44. Iran (Ranked)43. Albania
42. Congo DR
41. Australia (Ranked)
40. Uzbekistan (Ranked)Uzbekistan has proven to be a difficult rival, with a draw and a victory against Iran in the last two years. With a combination of a star defender, a prominent attacker, a team composed mainly of national players, and an Italian coach, they have achieved great results. In the AFC rankings, Uzbekistan tied with South Korea for the fewest goals conceded.39. Egypt (Ranked)
38. Czech Republic
37. Slovakia
36. Kosovo
35. United States (Classified)
34. Wales
33. South Korea (Qualified)
32. Republic of IrelandThe Republic of Ireland, known for its defensive play and long passes, has defensive talent, including Caoimhín Kelleher, Nathan Collins, Jake O’Brien, and Dara O’Shea. However, their offensive ability could be limited.
31. Paraguay (Qualified)
30. Poland
29. Canada (Ranked)28. Algeria (Ranked)
27. Ivory Coast (Qualified)26. Uruguay (Qualified)
25. Scotland (Ranked)
21. Ukraine
20. Switzerland (Qualified)
19. Croatia (Qualified)
Despite the presence of figures like Ivan Perisic and Luka Modric, Croatia has not managed to develop a new generation of footballers. Modric, with an exceptional performance at AC Milan, remains a key player.18. Morocco (Qualified)
17. Turkey16. Senegal (Qualified)
15. Ecuador (Qualified)
14. Colombia (Qualified)The alignment between overall talent and team performance is an interesting aspect of this analysis. In the case of Ecuador, Colombia, and Argentina, the Elo rankings significantly exceed their market value rankings.13. Sweden
12. Denmark
11. Belgium (Qualified)10. Norway (Qualified)
Norway, with Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard as pillars, seems to be a serious contender. Their formula is simple, but effective, and their performance in the qualifying phase was exceptional.9. Argentina (Qualified)
8. Germany (Qualified)
7. Italy
Italy, which failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup and had a disappointing performance in the European Championship, could miss its third consecutive World Cup. The lack of goal-scoring ability and the absence of an offensive superstar are its main weaknesses.6. Netherlands (Classified)5. Portugal (Qualified)
With Cristiano Ronaldo still active, Portugal will seek to demonstrate that age is not an impediment to success.4. Brazil (Qualified)
3. Spain (Qualified)2. France (Qualified)
1. England (Qualified)
England, with a squad full of stars like Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Bukayo Saka, dominated the qualifying phase, without conceding goals and displaying impressive offensive play. If they can maintain this level, they could be the team to beat in the World Cup.
