TOP 50 Hockey Players in Olympics: MacKinnon, McDavid and NHL Stars

Key NHL Players to Shine at the 2026 Winter Olympics

The 2026 Winter Olympics will mark the return of NHL players to the Olympic stage, an event not seen since 2014. The event will be in Milan, Italy, and for many players, it will be their Olympic debut, making these two weeks a highlight of their careers.

Taking advantage of the return of the league stars, we will analyze which players could be the most influential in Milan Cortina, based on their recent performance in the NHL. To do this, we will use the “Goals Above Replacement adjusted” (GAR), a metric that evaluates the total impact of a player, whether in attack, defense or goal, compared to a replacement-level player in the same position. This system seeks to balance the value of each position, reflecting how talent is valued in hockey: 60% of the GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goalkeepers. In addition, the “adjusted” part calculates the production of each player based on an 82-game schedule.

To determine who the most productive players have been in the latest NHL seasons, a system inspired by Bill James’ “Established Level” concept was applied, using a weighted average of each player’s GAR in the last three regular seasons. A weight of 3 was assigned to the 2025-26 season, 2 to 2024-25, and 1 to 2023-24, then dividing by 6 to obtain the overall average for each player. To avoid underestimating rising players, a safeguard was applied: a player’s “Established Level” cannot be lower than 75% of their GAR from the most recent season. Furthermore, to prevent inactive or injured players, such as Matthew Tkachuk, from suffering excessive penalties, the same 75% rule was applied to the previous season’s performance if a player played few games (less than 12 for field players or 7 for goalkeepers) in the 2025-26 season. The result is a combination of maximum, recent, and sustained performance, which indicates who have been the most productive players for their NHL teams in recent times, and who will likely maintain that level on their national teams. Below, we present the top 50 field players and goaltenders from the NHL who will participate in the Olympic Games, according to their “Established Level” of recent value in the last three years:Note: All statistics are as of January 17th.

1. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Canada (COL)
GAR: 2025-26: 39.0 | 2024-25: 24.2 | 2023-24: 31.0
Three-year average: O: 26.1 | D: 6.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 32.7

MacKinnon has been on a great run since the Christmas break, averaging 2.1 points per game in his last 10 games, allowing him to extend his lead over Connor McDavid in the GAR standings. He has already held this spot before, when he won the MVP in 2023-24, and it’s not hard to argue that the Avs star is the best player in the world heading into the Olympics. While this doesn’t guarantee a spot as a C1 in the Canadian lineup, given the connection he built centering a line with Sidney Crosby and Sam Reinhart at the 4 Nations Face-Off (MacKinnon led all tournament scorers with four goals in four games), there likely won’t be many complaints from MacKinnon in Milan Cortina.

2. Cale Makar, D, Canada (COL)
GAR: 2025-26: 27.7 | 2024-25: 30.1 | 2023-24: 22.9
Three-year average: O: 19.8 | D: 7.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 27.7

Alongside MacKinnon on Team Canada, Makar continues one of the best forward-defenseman combinations in the history of the game. His high ranking is due to his consistently elite production. Currently, he is on track to set a new personal record for adjusted points, with 93, the second-most for a defenseman since Paul Coffey in 1994-95, for the third consecutive season, and continues to play nearly 25 minutes per game on the blue line for a Colorado team that ranks sixth in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes. No defenseman has come close to consistently challenging Makar’s performance in recent years.

3. Connor McDavid, C, Canada (EDM)
GAR: 2025-26: 31.2 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 27.4
Three-year average: O: 22.3 | D: 4.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.9

McDavid would be neck and neck with MacKinnon for first place if he hadn’t missed 15 games last season, leading to a “down” season by his standards. Of course, a down season for McDavid still meant reaching the hundred-point mark for the ninth consecutive season and ranking 14th in the league in GAR. We should all hope our “down years” are that good! This season, McDavid is back in the business of dominating, heading towards his highest adjusted goals, points, and GAR since he won the MVP, and scoring his first 50-goal season in 2022-23. The fact that Canada has the three most productive NHL players in the Olympics speaks to the incredible talent it’s sending to Italy next month.

4. Leon Draisaitl, C, Germany (EDM)
GAR: 2025-26: 25.2 | 2024-25: 27.1 | 2023-24: 23.3
Three-year average: O: 20.5 | D: 5.1 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.5

If we’re going to praise Makar for his consistency from the blue line, we must extend the same praise to Draisaitl, whose metronomic ability to produce a new version of the same great season year after year is astonishing. He has had between 41 and 53 adjusted goals and between 104 and 128 adjusted points in all seasons from 2018-19 to 2025-26, a level of performance you can set your watch to. Now, making his first Olympic appearance, Draisaitl will lead Germany’s scoring attack as they try to get closer to the heights of the 2018 silver medal.

5. David Pastrnak, RW, Czech Republic (BOS)
GAR: 2025-26: 18.2 | 2024-25: 22.2 | 2023-24: 24.9
Three-year average: O: 18.3 | D: 2.4 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.7

In the last three seasons, only Nikita Kucherov, McDavid, MacKinnon, and Draisaitl have averaged more points per game than Pastrnak, the offensive engine of the Bruins. While he hasn’t been as prolific as usual so far this season (his adjusted 96 points would be the fewest he’s recorded in a season since 2021-22, and he ranks 32nd in adjusted GAR), Pastrnak is boosted here by top-10 GAR performances in each of the previous two seasons. With Kucherov not participating in the Olympics due to the IIHF’s ban on Russia, it’s fair to say that Pastrnak is the most dangerous offensive winger at this year’s Games.

6. Connor Hellebuyck, G, United States (WPG)
GAR: 2025-26: 10.8 | 2024-25: 31.1 | 2023-24: 28.1
Three-year average: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 20.5 | Total: 20.5

It’s been a difficult NHL season for Hellebuyck, who missed a month with a knee injury, has struggled (.887 SV%) since returning, and whose Jets are suffering one of the worst year-over-year declines in NHL history, with only a 28% chance of making the playoffs a year after winning the Presidents’ Trophy. That said, few goaltenders in the game can compete with Hellebuyck’s overall resume, which included an MVP win and the league’s best GAR finish last season, and that track record still elevates him here.

7. Zach Werenski, D, United States (CBJ)
GAR: 2025-26: 23.2 | 2024-25: 20.5 | 2023-24: 10.4
Three-year average: O: 16.9 | D: 3.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.2

Although he didn’t score a single goal in the tournament, the points leader at last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off was none other than Werenski, one of the flag bearers of the modern golden age of defensemen. Werenski made a big statistical leap last season, improving his personal record of adjusted points by 50%, and has continued to improve his individual production this season to offensive production levels close to those of Makar, something that will contribute to any pairing he is assigned to in Milan Cortina.

8. Martin Necas, C, Czech Republic (COL)
GAR: 2025-26: 25.7 | 2024-25: 16.8 | 2023-24: 9.9
Three-year average: O: 14.9 | D: 5.2 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.1

The Avs’ big three, MacKinnon, Makar, and Necas, have been historically productive together this season; now they will all be together at the Olympics, although not all on the same team. With his teammates playing for Canada, Necas will join the Czech lineup with Pastrnak, Tomas Hertl and more NHL talent, and they will have a good opportunity not only to improve on their ninth-place finish at the last Olympics, but also to match (or improve) their bronze medal journey in 2018. Necas is finally getting his recognition in the midst of a career year in Colorado, so anything he does here will add another chapter to his success story.

9. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Finland (DAL)
GAR: 2025-26: 20.7 | 2024-25: 18.0 | 2023-24: 21.5
Three-year average: O: 16.2 | D: 3.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.9

It’s a cosmic coincidence that Rantanen is directly next to Necas in the three-year production rankings, as the two will forever be linked by the trade that sent the latter to Carolina and the former to Colorado last January. For Necas, that’s an impressive location given his previous production, particularly before the trade, when he had never exceeded 68 adjusted points in a season. For Rantanen, it’s a bit of a downgrade, as he’s averaging fewer adjusted GAR this season and last (19.4) than he had in any of the previous four seasons with Colorado, but the Finn is still a dangerous offensive threat on the wing. He will also have good chemistry with his Olympic line-mates (Mikael Granlund, Roope Hintz) from their time together in Dallas.

10. Macklin Celebrini, F, Canada (SJ)
GAR: 2025-26: 26.4 | 2024-25: 7.5 | 2023-24: 0.0
Three-year average: O: 16.8 | D: 3.0 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.8

For all the star power established on Team Canada, the most talked-about player on the roster might be Celebrini, the 19-year-old phenomenon who is making a notable MVP bid in only his second NHL season. After finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting last year, the former No. 1 overall pick has elevated his game even further this season, ranking 12th in goals, second in assists, third in points, and fourth in GAR despite being one of the youngest players in the league. At the same time, Celebrini’s Sharks have gone from the worst record in the NHL to being in the thick of the playoff race. It’s an amazing story, and as long as NHL players are allowed in the Olympics in the future, Celebrini will add chapters to his story on this stage as well.

11. Jack Eichel, C, United States (VGK)
GAR: 2025-26: 21.5 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 13.7
Three-year average: O: 14.9 | D: 4.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.8

With Jack Hughes and Matthew Tkachuk’s scoring limited here by injuries, Eichel enters the Olympics as possibly the most proven recent producer for Team USA up front. Although he has also missed seven games due to a lower-body injury, Eichel is still on pace for new single-season personal records in adjusted points (96) and adjusted GAR (21.5) with the Golden Knights, and his experience at the 4 Nations on a line with the Tkachuk brothers (Brady and Matthew), the trio combined for five goals and 10 points in that tournament, will also make Eichel the center of attention in Milan Cortina.

12. Kyle Connor, LW, United States (WPG)
GAR: 2025-26: 20.0 | 2024-25: 21.8 | 2023-24: 12.3
Three-year average: O: 15.8 | D: 3.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.3

Of all the factors that led to Winnipeg’s huge year-over-year drop, Connor’s play really isn’t one of them. He’s on pace for nearly identical adjusted scoring numbers: 39 goals and 96 points, versus 41 and 97 a year ago, and his GAR has remained stable enough to stay among the top 25 players in the league. Sometimes, Connor has had a tendency to go unnoticed during his career, but he was voted the league’s best LW last season, and it would be good to see him get more playing time than the 12:27 per game he had in three contests at the 4 Nations a year ago.

13. Josh Morrissey, D, Canada (WPG)
GAR: 2025-26: 19.8 | 2024-25: 18.1 | 2023-24: 19.1
Three-year average: O: 11.2 | D: 7.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.1

Another Jets player appears in a high position in the ranking, with Morrissey continuing among the handful of the league’s most productive defenses despite Winnipeg’s difficulties. This season is on track for personal records in adjusted goals (16) and GAR (19.8), despite averaging his lowest shots per game since 2018-19. Morrissey brings almost all the elements that exist in the art of playing defense, from his puck movement and scoring to shot blocking and playing time in both power play and penalty kill. He will be one of the cornerstones of Canada’s blue line.

14. Logan Thompson, G, Canada (WSH)
GAR: 2025-26: 25.4 | 2024-25: 14.3 | 2023-24: 9.3
Three-year average: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 19.0 | Total: 19.0

After a good debut with Washington in 2024-25, Thompson has been even better this season, with a save percentage 17% better than the league average and the best Goals Saved Above Average mark in the NHL (+16.6). It’s unclear if that will be enough for Thompson to win Canada’s starting position in net, as Jordan Binnington had a tremendous performance in the 4 Nations final a year ago. But if the decision were based on NHL stats between Thompson and Binnington, who has been one of the worst goalies in the league this season, there would be no decision.

15. Brandon Hagel, LW, Canada (TB)
GAR: 2025-26: 20.0 | 2024-25: 20.0 | 2023-24: 13.4
Three-year average: O: 13.8 | D: 5.0 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.9

Hagel has traded passes for goal scoring this season, dropping from 55 to 35 adjusted assists, but increasing from 35 to 39 adjusted goals while further improving his partnership with strong puck possession for Tampa Bay when he is on the ice. The result has been exactly the same adjusted GAR production (20.0 both seasons), part of a good run of years for a player who is reaching his peak. Also, he was already a big part of Canada’s emotional core after fighting with Matthew Tkachuk immediately after the puck drop in their matchup against Team USA last year.

16. Sidney Crosby, C, Canada (PIT)
GAR: 2025-26: 20.1 | 2024-25: 15.4 | 2023-24: 19.5
Three-year average: 18.5