NHL: Quarter-Season Analysis, Surprises, and Challenges

The 2025-26 NHL season has reached its first quarter, with all 32 teams having played more than 20 games. As usual, there have been positive surprises, especially with the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Anaheim Ducks, as well as not-so-positive surprises, including the Toronto Maple Leafs, St. Louis Blues, and Vancouver Canucks. But, how are the teams graded in their season’s first quarter report? Here’s a summary of what has gone well, what has gone wrong, and a first-quarter grade for all 32 clubs. Note: Teams are listed alphabetically by rating. Ryan S. Clark rated the teams in the Pacific and Central Divisions, and Kristen Shilton rated the teams in the Metropolitan and Atlantic Divisions. Statistics are current as of games on November 23.

Grades A

Colorado Avalanche

Preseason Over/Under: 103.5 Current points rhythm: 137.9

What went well?

• They lead the NHL in goals per game, while also conceding the fewest goals per game.
• They generate the most scoring chances per 60 minutes, shots per 60, and high-danger scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play.
• Their defensive structure has made them a top 10 team in terms of the fewest shots allowed per 60 and the fewest high-danger chances allowed per 60.

Nathan MacKinnon is in a position to win his second Hart Trophy. Cale Makar could win his third Norris Trophy, and even challenge MacKinnon for the Hart. Now they seem to have the supporting cast capable of providing consistent contributions. The Avs could be the best team in the NHL. And at their current pace, they could threaten, if not surpass, the Bruins’ record of 135 regular season points set in the 2022-23 regular season.

What went wrong?

Leading the NHL with 4.00 goals per game leads to the assumption that the Avs can score in any situation. However, the Avs are struggling when it comes to consistently scoring goals on the power play. Entering Monday, the Avs had a top-10 power play unit that was only converting 15.7% of its opportunities. Rating: A+

Anaheim Ducks

Preseason Over/Under: 83.5 Current point rate: 108.1

What went well?

They are fighting for the Pacific Division crown. But what could be the strongest indication of how well the Ducks are doing this season is Leo Carlsson’s projected scoring pace. A Ducks player has only finished with more than 100 points in a season four times in franchise history. Carlsson is not only on track to join a list with Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne, but is projected to finish with 108 points. That puts Carlsson in a position to have what could be one of the best individual seasons in team history and threaten Selanne’s franchise record of 109 points.

What went wrong?

An excessive reliance on Lukas Dostal in the defensive zone. Dostal has started in 17 of the Ducks’ first 22 games. It’s a pace that projects him to play 63 games, which is the kind of workload reserved for top-tier goalies like Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. But there are also the underlying numbers. The Ducks are in the top three in terms of the most high-danger scoring chances allowed, shots against, and high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. It’s a contrast with Dostal, who is recording 5.42 goals saved above expected, which ranks him sixth among goalies with more than 10 games. Rating: A

Dallas Stars

Preseason Over/Under: 103.5 Current point rhythm: 111.8

What went well?

Glen Gulutzan’s second stint with the Stars could be defined by perspective. There are some questions about why the Stars are in the top 10 in scoring chances per 60, shots per 60, and high-danger scoring chances per 60. But there are also those who would argue that maybe it’s just a sign of efficiency. The Stars have the NHL’s No. 2 power play unit and are also tenth in goals per game. It’s a promising return in a season that began with questions about how they would fare with a new coach, while also taking into account that they lost three forwards in the offseason: Evgenii Dadonov, Mikael Granlund, and Mason Marchment.

What went wrong?

There has been a bit of a disconnect with how the Stars perform in the defensive zone at 5-on-5 compared to the penalty kill. They are among the top 10 teams in the fewest goals allowed per game and the fewest high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60. They are also around the league average in allowing the fewest shots per 60. However, their PK hasn’t been up to par, with a 75.7% success rate, which is in the top 10 of the NHL. Rating: A

Detroit Red Wings

Preseason Over/Under: 84.5 Current points rhythm: 96.3

What went well?

Detroit is having its best start in a decade, and it’s not for one particular reason. This is a group effort that aligns with General Manager Steve Yzerman’s vision for the Red Wings as a highly skilled and defensively responsible team. Head coach Todd McLellan is maximizing Detroit’s potential in his first full season. Defensive acceptance is not only reflected in the statistics, such as the way the Red Wings average the fewest shots against per game this season, but also in how skaters like Dylan Larkin are thriving. The Red Wings captain leads the team in goals and points and has provided invaluable leadership to the equally impressive rookie forwards Emmitt Finnie and Nate Danielson. In the back, rookie Axel Sandin-Pellikka has been an important presence and has provided Detroit with the depth it needed to be among the best in the Atlantic.

What went wrong?

The Red Wings have leaned on a strong power play this season; it’s their even-strength scoring that can improve. It won’t be sustainable for Detroit to rely on the man advantage to get them through. Although the Red Wings have collectively reinforced themselves on defense, they are still conceding more than three goals against per game, which speaks in part to their goaltending. Cam Talbot has been better this season than the last, but John Gibson, Yzerman’s big offseason acquisition, has been no kind of savior. The Red Wings have to hope that tandem can make the difference for them from now on. Rating: A

New York Islanders

Preseason Over/Under: 84.5 Current point rate: 99.8

What went well?

Let’s start with the obvious: Matthew Schaefer. The rookie defenseman arrived better than advertised after New York selected him with the number 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Schaefer is electrifying at both ends of the court and takes on significant minutes (more than 22 per game) which shows the confidence that coach Patrick Roy already has in the favorite for the Calder Trophy. And he’s not the only exciting rookie that has Islanders fans buzzing. Maxim Shabanov delivered a record-breaking three-point performance to cap off a recent 6-1-0 road trip, illustrating why New York coveted the former KHL player (and why he’s likely to get a promotion from the fourth line). Beyond those two skaters, the Islanders are getting solid goaltending from Ilya Sorokin and David Rittich and, for a team that has constantly sought more offense, New York is in the top 10 in the NHL in goals, thanks to the efforts of Bo Horvat (who is having his best start in years) and a healthy Mathew Barzal and Kyle Palmieri.

What went wrong?

The Islanders don’t have a potent power play (it’s among the worst in the league) and there’s concern that their offense may be too reliant to keep up with deeper clubs. New York has also just lost one of their best defensemen, Alexander Romanov, for five or six months after shoulder surgery following a hit from Mikko Rantanen of Dallas. Given the way the Islanders have exceeded expectations so far, it’s difficult to criticize what hasn’t worked for them in the grand scheme of the first quarter. Rating: A

Pittsburgh Penguins

Preseason Over/Under: 77.5 Current points rhythm: 97.6

What went well?

Pittsburgh is possibly one of the most surprising contenders of the season. Few would have chosen the Penguins to be in the playoff mix of the Eastern Conference in the first quarter of the season. This is a different Penguins team under first-year head coach Dan Muse, who is pushing all the right buttons. Muse’s system brings out the best in Pittsburgh skaters by giving them freedom to operate, and that has paid off in the Penguins’ growing confidence. Pittsburgh is conceding the second-fewest goals this season, ranks in the top 10 in offense, and has the league’s best power play. The Penguins’ goaltending has benefited from the emergence of Arturs Silovs and an improved Tristan Jarry. Basically, everything has worked for Pittsburgh.

What went wrong?

The Penguins have a problem closing out certain games, that is, those that extend beyond regulation time. Pittsburgh has a record of 0-4 this season in overtime and the shootout, something Muse has tried to address with practice exercises focused on the club’s 3-on-3 work. The standings this season are closer than ever, and leaving points on the board is often a small area that Pittsburgh can clean up. Rickard Rackell is out for two months due to a hand fracture suffered in October, and that will continue to affect the Penguins’ depth. Jarry entering the injured list earlier this month was also a blow and will test Pittsburgh’s resilience. Rating: A

Carolina Hurricanes

Preseason Over/Under: 105.5 Current point rhythm: 111.8

What went well?

Carolina isn’t the most exciting team in the league, but it’s one of the best for a reason. The Hurricanes thrive on head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s structure that emphasizes suffocating defensive play. However, their offense has really excelled this season, ranking second overall thanks to a potent Seth Jarvis, who leads the team in goals, a slippery Sebastian Aho, who paces Carolina in points, and the ever-consistent Jordan Staal. Goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov has been excellent in net amid the difficult start of starter Frederik Andersen. Overall, the Hurricanes are deep, detailed, and disciplined. It’s no surprise that they’ve only lost consecutive games once this season.

What went wrong?

The Hurricanes haven’t thrived on special teams. Their power play is the worst in the league and they are 21st in penalty kill. It’s a harsh reality given how Carolina can dominate at even strength (ranking third in 5-on-5 goals) and could be a temporary flaw if Brind’Amour can figure out why the man advantage, especially, is a momentum killer. Carolina also has a goaltending riddle with Andersen. The veteran, often injured, has already dealt with a concussion this season and his numbers have been poor when he’s available. Kochetkov can’t be expected to carry the load completely, so Carolina will need Andersen to get going or look for more goaltending options. Rating: A-

New Jersey Devils

Preseason Over/Under: 99.5 Current point rate: 108.1

What went well?

New Jersey’s star-studded offense has been producing at a solid pace this season: Jack Hughes had 20 points in 17 games, Jesper Bratt had 21 in 21, and Nico Hischier continues to be capable of being one of the league’s top two-way centers. The Devils’ goaltending is another strength due to veteran Jake Allen, who has been excellent handling a larger workload this season. Meanwhile, defenseman Simon Nemec has flourished after taking a little longer to find his stride than some expected after being drafted No. 2 overall in the 2022 draft. He has taken on a large workload, and that has only amplified how good he can be in the Devils’ own end, as well as jumping into the rush.

What went wrong?

The Devils just wanted to have a nice team dinner in Chicago, and instead, the night ended with Hughes requiring surgery on his finger after a strange accident at the restaurant. Having Hughes healthy is (almost) all New Jersey needs to be a Stanley Cup contender, and now that he’s out for several weeks (along with Cody Glass and Brett Pesce), the Devils will delve into their depth to cover. Speaking of depth, it’s good that Allen has been so hot to start the season because Jacob Markstrom hasn’t been. With Hughes out now, it’s even more imperative that New Jersey find ways to keep scoring and not expose Allen to a barrage that will wear him down. Rating: A-B Ratings

Boston Bruins

Preseason Over/Under: 80.5 Current points rhythm: 88.8

What went well?

It was assumed that the Bruins would be the basement dwellers of the Atlantic Division. But, plot twist, they’ve actually been one of its top contenders. All credit to first-year head coach Marco Sturm for implementing a defense-first structure that Boston has embraced enough to mitigate some of the sting of top-line center Elias Lindholm being out for most of the season to date due to a lower-body injury. The defenseman Nikita Zadorov has been particularly strong, bringing a forceful presence to the Bruins’ blue line. Boston has also benefited from Jeremy Swayman’s return to form this season, and the team is in the top 10 in both power play and penalty kill. The Bruins were not expected to be a powerhouse up front, but David Pastrnak has been his usual dynamic self and Morgan Geekie is a rising offensive star.

What went wrong?

Injuries are piling up. Defenseman Charlie McAvoy is out indefinitely after taking a puck to the face, and Casey Mittelstadt, Viktor Arvidsson, and Jordan Harris have also been sidelined lately. The Bruins have exceeded expectations from the start, but it doesn’t seem sustainable if skaters like Lindholm and McAvoy are out for an extended period and the rest of the league gets healthy enough to catch up. Even with Sturm’s message and Swayman’s solid game, the Bruins are still among the bottom 10 in goals against, and that’s not an encouraging statistic now that McAvoy won’t be there to anchor the back end. The Bruins need consistency and could struggle to find it. Rating: B+

Chicago Blackhawks

Preseason Over/Under: 67.5 Current points rhythm: 89.5

What went well?

Think about the problems the Blackhawks faced last season. Many of them have become the foundation of a team that is in the running for the biggest surprise in the NHL in the first quarter of the regular season. Questions about Connor Bedard have been replaced by another set of questions: Will he be part of the Canadian Olympic team and possibly win a scoring title? Bedard is on pace to score 116 points, and if that holds, it will be the highest-scoring season by any Blackhawks player not named Denis Savard. In addition, any concerns about the struggles of their veterans from last season have been erased by what they are doing this season. Although Bedard is generating a lot of attention, the goaltending could signify how much has changed with the Blackhawks since last season. They finished with a team save percentage of .894 in 2024-25, but have started this season with a .911 mark in the first 22 games, tied for fourth in the NHL. Spencer Knight is making his case for why he could be under Olympic consideration for the U.S. team.

What went wrong?

Finding cohesion within their defensive structure remains a problem. Make no mistake, the Blackhawks were expected to encounter some challenges on the defensive end due in part to being what Elite Prospects lists as the third-youngest team in the NHL this season. Their top four defensemen, in terms of minutes played, are under 24 years old, and two of them are rookies. Having so much youth alongside the Blackhawks’ structure has played a role in why they are among the bottom four in scoring chances allowed per 60, high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60, and shots allowed per 60 at 5-on-5 play in their first 22 games. Rating: B+

Montreal Canadiens

Preseason Over/Under: 90.5

Current point rhythm: 97.6

What went well?

Montreal didn’t believe that rookie goaltender Jakub Dobes was the backbone of their success at the start of the season, but the rising star became exactly that by outperforming starter Sam Montembeault as one of the league’s breakout goalies. Dobes has been aided by the Canadiens’ more consistent defensive effort. Montreal didn’t pay enough attention to that end of the rink last season, and that hurt them. Now, the Canadiens have been stronger in the neutral zone and have played with tighter gaps to limit rush opportunities. The Canadiens’ top skaters have also delivered, with Cole Caufield already scoring 13 goals and Nick Suzuki accumulating 22 points in their first 20 games.

What went wrong?

The Canadiens have recently regressed after their impressive start. Dobes and Montembeault have been below average and Montreal’s confidence seems shaken by the lopsided defeats (such as a 7-0 loss against Dallas) that call into question all the progress they seemed to have made across the board. Injuries also continue to take their toll, with Kaiden Guhle, Kirby Dach, Patrik Laine, and Alex Newhook out for significant periods. Montreal was a surprise playoff team last season, but proved it wasn’t a fluke given how well they started this season. To stay in that conversation, Montreal has to rely on its depth and not lose sight of those defensive details that make the difference. Rating: B+

Philadelphia Flyers

Preseason Over/Under: 83.5 Current point rhythm: 97.6

What went well?

Philadelphia is right in the soft middle of the Eastern Conference and that’s not so bad if you’re the Flyers. Rick Tocchet’s group is finding ways to win hockey games with solid defensive play: they’ve been near the top 10 in goals against per game. That has also extended to their penalty kill, which is near the top of the league. Goalie Dan Vladar has been a surprisingly reliable starter, transitioning from a tandem option with Samuel Ersson to a backbone of the entire Philadelphia operation. Another pillar is defenseman Travis Sanheim, who has been in excellent control of the Flyers’ blue line. And up front, Trevor Zegras, acquired in the offseason to bolster Philadelphia’s center depth, is averaging more than a point per game to lead the Flyers’ offense along with Travis Konecny.

What went wrong?

The Flyers have a good group of forwards, but they are not producing at a high enough rate. Philadelphia is 26th in goals per game this season, and their power play is operating below 20%. Although Vladar and the team’s collective defensive approach have put the Flyers in a solid position for now, it won’t last unless they can find more contributors on the scoresheet. Specifically, Matvei Michkov has taken a step back this season, with only nine points in his first 19 games, and Philadelphia is still looking for consistency throughout the lineup. There’s also the problem of Ersson and whether he can support Vladar as the season progresses. Some nights, Ersson can pass the eye test, but if Vladar stumbles or gets injured, they will count on the backup to step up. Rating: B+

San Jose Sharks

Preseason Over/Under: 70.5 Current points rhythm: 89.1

What went well?

Any conversation about the Sharks right now is one that requires a level of nuance. Their current projection has them on pace to finish with more than 80 points for the first time since the 2018-19 season, which was also their last playoff appearance. They have seen the progress of their young core of Yaroslav Askarov, William Eklund, and Will Smith, while their veterans continue to help in ways that can and cannot be measured. Then there’s a completely different conversation that can be had about Macklin Celebrini. Yes, Celebrini has been so good that he’s among the league leaders in points and could be playing to make the Canadian Olympic team. However, what might be missed in the discussion around Celebrini is the idea that he could end up having the best individual season in Sharks history. He’s currently on pace to score 121 points, and if that holds, he would surpass Joe Thornton for the most in a single season (114).

What went wrong?

The six-game losing streak to start the season. They conceded more than three goals in each of those losses, which only amplified what it meant to start the season in a hole. It was a streak that also played a role in why the Sharks are in the top 10 in goals per game, goals allowed per game, and have the eleventh-worst penalty kill. To put it another way: Since the losing streak ended on October 23, the Sharks have the fourth-most points in the NHL. Rating: B+

Seattle Kraken

Preseason Over/Under: 78.5 Current point rhythm: 104.4

What went well?

Only the Rangers have committed a higher percentage of their active salary cap to their goalies than the Kraken. The early returns on that investment are one of the main reasons the Kraken are actively fighting for a playoff spot right now. The metrics from Natural Stat Trick show that the Kraken led the NHL in team save percentage at 5-on-5 as of Monday and were tied for fourth in team save percentage in all situations. Joey Daccord, Philipp Grubauer, and Matt Murray have provided a consistency in net that has complemented the Kraken’s defensive structure. The first season of Lane Lambert as coach has seen the Kraken re-establish their defensive identity as one of the strongest teams in the NHL to limit high-danger scoring chances per 60 and scoring chances per 60 at 5-on-5 play.

What went wrong?

Allowing 2.59 goals per game has made the Kraken one of the most difficult teams to score against this season. But scoring 2.55 goals per game will make it more difficult for the Kraken to stay in the fight for a playoff spot. The margins have been so narrow that they had identical numbers when it came to goals scored per game and goals allowed per game as recently as Friday. Having such a small margin for error is part of a larger compound that illustrates how the Kraken have struggled to score goals and find ways to generate those goal opportunities. There are only three teams in the NHL that average fewer goals per game than the Kraken. It’s a process that has been made even more difficult by the fact that the Kraken are last in scoring chances per 60, shots per 60, and high-danger chances per 60. And yet, they entered Monday only one point